Trump keeps Republicans guessing on Texas Senate endorsement

President Trump is keeping Republicans guessing over whether he’ll endorse in the closely watched Texas GOP Senate primary between Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) and state Attorney General Ken Paxton.

Trump met with Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) and Senate Leadership Fund officials, both Cornyn allies, on Wednesday to discuss the Senate map, including the Texas primary. Cornyn has been consistently trailing Paxton in the polls.

And on Thursday, the race was rocked by another wildcard when Paxton’s wife, state Sen. Angela Paxton (R) filed for divorce. The attorney general had faced allegations of taking part in an extramarital affair and corruption as a part of his 2023 impeachment trial. 

An endorsement from Trump has the potential to give Cornyn a much-needed boost among GOP primary voters, who for several cycles have tended to lean further to the right.

“It will affect their perception of where Cornyn stands with President Trump and with the party,” said Brendan Steinhauser, Cornyn’s former campaign manager. “Everything is at the margins but I do think it matters.” 

Cornyn campaign senior adviser Matt Mackowiak referred to a Trump endorsement as “the most powerful endorsement in the modern history of the Republican party.” 

“Senator Cornyn and President Trump are good friends and close allies and Senator Cornyn is proud to have voted with President Trump 99.2 percent of the time while he has been in office,” Mackowiak said in a statement to The Hill. 

“We respect that President [Trump] will take his time to make a decision and in the meantime we are focused on running a first rate, winning campaign, as Senator Cornyn always has,” he added. 

Cornyn was front and center with the president on Friday when he traveled with Trump to the state’s Hill Country, which was ravaged by flooding last week. 

Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas) was also along for the trip. Hunt has had conversations with the White House about potentially jumping into the race and is seen as more viable in a general election than Paxton. 

Cornyn’s allies this week also jumped on the news that Paxton’s wife filed for divorce, citing “biblical grounds.” 

“What Ken Paxton has put his family through is truly repulsive and disgusting,” said Joanna Rodriguez, communications director at the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), which is backing Cornyn. “No one should have to endure what Angela Paxton has, and we pray for her as she chooses to stand up for herself and her family during this difficult time.”

Meanwhile on Friday, Hunt posted a picture of him, his wife, and three small children with the caption “Family, Faith, Freedom. Good Morning America.”  

Paxton, in a statement, said that “After facing the pressures of countless political attacks and public scrutiny, Angela and I have decided to start a new chapter in our lives.”

“I could not be any more proud or grateful for the incredible family that God has blessed us with, and I remain committed to supporting our amazing children and grandchildren. I ask for your prayers and privacy at this time,” he added.

It’s unclear whether Paxton’s divorce will have any impact on the increasingly dramatic primary, but polls taken before the news broke show he holds a commanding lead over Cornyn.

A poll released last month by Republican pollster Robert Blizzard on behalf of the Educational Freedom Institute, showed Paxton leading Cornyn 50 percent to 28 percent among GOP primary voters. Cornyn’s campaign dismissed that poll, saying it was “silly season for polling and this one takes the gold medal.”

However, another poll conducted around the same period by Texas Southern University showed Paxton leading Cornyn 43 percent to 34 percent, with 23 percent saying they were undecided.

An internal poll released in May by the Senate Leadership Fund, which is supporting Cornyn, showed Paxton trailing Cornyn by 16 points. 

While he currently trails in the polls, Cornyn could see an advantage when it comes to the cash race. The senator had not yet released his second quarter fundraising haul as of Friday, but he is seen as one of the most prolific fundraisers in the Senate. 

He has raked in over $415 million during his time in the Senate and in 2024 alone he raised nearly $33 million to help Republicans win the majority in the upper chamber. Last quarter, Cornyn raised $2.5 million, bringing his cash on hand total to $5.7 million. On top of that, the pro-Cornyn Texans for a Conservative Majority PAC said earlier this month it raised $10.9 million this past quarter. 

Paxton’s second quarter haul shows he has fundraising chops as well. On Friday, the attorney general’s campaign said he raised $2.9 million between April and June. 

But insiders argue that Trump would likely give more weight to polling than fundraising in any decision to endorse. 

“If you’re going to move the president with anything on numbers, it’s going to be a poll,” said the Republican strategist. 

Cornyn’s supporters and Paxton’s Republican critics note that the attorney general’s lead in primary polling creates a conundrum for Republicans seeking to maintain their control of the Senate.

The same Texas Southern University poll showed Cornyn leading Democratic Senate candidate and former Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas) by 4 points and Paxton leading Allred by 2 points.

A separate poll released by the Senate Leadership Fund showed the incumbent leading Allred by 6 points, while Hunt led the Texas lawmaker by 4 and Paxton trailed him by 1.

The concern is that Paxton’s potential weakness as a general election candidate could force Republicans to spend more money defending the seat, taking away resources from other battlegrounds. 

“I think it would be more valuable the sooner it comes,” Steinhauser said, referring to Trump’s endorsement. “Of course it helps with fundraising but more importantly, it helps with the couple of million Republican primary voters that are expected to vote in this thing.”

“They do tend to prefer the Trump candidate in these primaries,” he added. 

Others are skeptical that an endorsement from Trump would have any major impact on Cornyn’s chances. 

An internal poll obtained by The Hill and conducted by the firm Eyes Over showed Cornyn trailing Paxton 44 to 38 percent after Republican primary voters were informed of a scenario in which Trump backed Cornyn, compared to 50 percent to 33 percent before they were told.

Another poll obtained by The Hill, which was conducted on behalf of the Conservative Policy Project, showed Cornyn only gaining one point with Trump’s endorsement against Paxton and trailing 46 to 34 percent. The same poll showed Paxton trailing a generic Democratic candidate by three points. 

And the same poll conducted by Blizzard laid out a scenario in which Trump endorsed Cornyn and Paxton attacked Cornyn for his past statements about Trump and working with Democrats on gun safety legislation. In that scenario, Cornyn trailed Paxton 62 percent to 21 percent.

Without those assumptions, Paxton led Cornyn by 22 points, according to the findings. 

“All the data points to him not being able to help a severely damaged John Cornyn get over the finish line,” the Republican strategist said. 

However the strategist did not dismiss the power of Trump’s endorsement, arguing that it is most valuable to candidates who are not already defined. 

“Cornyn is already defined,” the strategist said.  “The battle now for Cornyn is to try to show enough viability and credibility so the president doesn’t cut him loose.”