The 5 Senate seats most likely to flip

An already active start to the 2026 cycle has kicked into overdrive in recent weeks with a major retirement announcement, the passage of a key GOP priority and moves by candidates that could further scramble the chess board.

Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) made waves in the lead-up to the passage of President Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” by announcing he would not be seeking a third term next year, throwing the party’s push of retaining the seat in flux.  

That was only a prelude, however, to the GOP getting its mammoth tax and spending package over the finish line by July 4, with the newly minted law set to potentially play a far-reaching role as Democrats try to tether Republicans to the Medicaid and Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) cuts that were included. 

Here’s a mid-summer look at the five Senate seats most likely to flip next year.

North Carolina

By far the biggest change on this list is to the top spot as Tillis’s decision to retire has further opened the door to Democrats being able to flip a seat they have long been eyeing.

The seat was always considered a top-level race for both sides of the aisle, but the removal of the battle-tested incumbent from the field makes the effort more difficult for the GOP.

In one clear sign of how tight the race is likely to be, the election handicapper Cook Political Report shifted its rating from “lean Republican” to “toss up” after Tillis’s announcement.

Adding to the problems for Republicans is that the news seems to have pushed former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D) closer to taking the plunge, potentially giving the minority party an A-level recruit and a real chance to flip the seat. 

Cooper, the former two-term governor, has never lost a statewide race in six attempts. 

On the GOP side, all eyes are on Lara Trump, the wife of Eric Trump and a Tar Heel State native. In the eyes of multiple Republican strategists, the nomination is hers if she wants it — but whether she wants it is an entirely different question. 

Lara Trump had a chance to run for the seat currently occupied by Sen. Ted Budd (R-N.C.) in 2022, but passed on the opportunity. She was also floated as a possible appointee to fill the Senate seat of current Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Florida, but Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) ultimately tapped Sen. Ashley Moody (R-Fla.), an ally, instead. 

“Lara Trump’s very viable,” Budd recently told reporters at the Capitol, shooting down concerns that she has not lived in the state in many years. “She’s from Wilmington, she went to the same high school as Michael Jordan.” 

“There’s a great case to be made if she wants it. We of course would be supportive,” he added.

Republicans also see an added bonus to her running: the chance to get the Trump name on the ballot, even in a midterm year.

“She has a golden last name and it’s still a light red state,” one GOP operative with experience working on Senate races said.  

Georgia

It’s still early in the cycle, but Republican recruiting woes have emerged in several states, headlined by Georgia.

The GOP is still in the throes of trying to figure out who will take on Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) in a state where Republicans believe they have a real chance of flipping a seat that they shouldn’t have lost in the first place.

The GOP got its first major blow of the cycle when Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) announced in May that he was sidestepping a Senate bid. 

Since then, it’s been a real struggle for Republicans to find a top-tier candidate who could topple the incumbent Democrat. Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Ga.) has already launched a campaign, but that has done little to stop top Republicans from looking elsewhere for their party’s solutions. 

Rep. Mike Collins (R-Ga.) indicated that he is taking a long, hard look at a bid. Some Republicans are also hoping that Veterans Affairs Secretary Doug Collins, a former House member, gets the campaign itch once again. 

“Georgia’s going to be really tough. … Ossoff is not the best candidate, but he’s figured out the way to make it work for himself and the state is changing. It’s going to be very difficult,” said a second GOP operative who has worked on Senate races.

“You feel worse about Georgia than you do North Carolina — for sure,” the operative said “Who’s going to emerge [in the primary]? I think Jon Ossoff’s a better candidate than I think people anticipated when he first got elected.” 

“Not having Brian Kemp hurts,” the operative added.

In fact, Democrats see Ossoff being a real net-positive in this race, especially given the uncertainty on the GOP side. Putting icing on the cake, the first-term Democrat raised more than $10 million between April and June, marking his second consecutive quarter with an eight-figure haul. He has $15.5 million in the bank. 

“He’s passionate. He cares. He fights for his state. … “He’s committed. He listens to them. He hears what their challenges are and he comes here to solve those problems,” said Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.), who ran the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) when Ossoff won his race in 2020. “That’s a recipe for success in your state.

Maine

Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), the only Republican defending a seat in a blue state next year, has had a difficult month.

First, Republicans were able to pass the “big, beautiful bill” without her support, putting her on record opposing cuts to Medicaid that could harm rural hospitals — but on the defensive back home about the GOP bill.

Most recently, she voted against a White House request to claw back funding after repeatedly warning that the Trump administration was not going into enough detail about the impact of the cuts, which largely impact foreign aid and public broadcasters. 

As Senate Appropriations Committee chair, she is also trying to shepherd government funding through Congress amid accusations from Democrats that Republicans are poisoning the well with the bill to claw back funds.

Democrats allege Collins is intentionally making moves to appeal to both sides.

“It’s not an accident that Susan Collins is failing to stop the toxic GOP agenda,” said Tommy Garcia, a spokesperson for the Maine Democratic Party, in a statement. “It’s a carefully orchestrated political ploy to keep her seat while cutting Medicaid and delivering tax giveaways to billionaires. 

“At the end of the day, Donald Trump and Washington Republicans know Susan Collins will have their back,” he added.

Amid all of that, though, Collins can take solace at a few things heading into the second half of summer.

A poll conducted by Pan Atlantic Research in May of 840 likely voters found her favorability rating four points above water in Maine

And Democrats still do not have a candidate ready to take her on. 

Many in the party are pinning their hopes on Maine Gov. Janet Mills (D) taking the plunge, but the 77-year-old has given little oxygen to the idea of a run.

Absent Mills, the options are limited. Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) made clear months ago he has no plans of challenging Collins. 

For now, the best chance for Democrats to take Collins down is seemingly for her to opt for retirement. Senate Republicans and operatives, however, believe she will seek a sixth term and find it hard to believe she will depart only months after securing the Appropriations gavel — her dream job. 

They also know that without her, the seat is most likely gone. 

Texas 

The Lone Star State is the lone new inclusion on the list as questions surround the political future of Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas).

Cornyn finds himself down by double digits in numerous polls to Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R), sparking fears among the GOP that Democrats have a real opening to nab a white whale: a Senate seat in Texas. 

To be sure, the four-term incumbent has a long history of success, especially in general elections. He’s also a prolific fundraiser.

Still, Republicans are nervous about whether he can overcome his opponent, who has been a MAGA stalwart — and who they believe will be a weaker general election candidate.

“Worried,” one Senate Republican told The Hill when asked about the mood within the GOP conference about Cornyn’s reelection chances, adding that members are also concerned about the amount of money it will cost to help lift him out of the polling hole. 

Cornyn is facing a crucial stretch as his supporters go to the airwaves in a bid to determine the path forward. A Cornyn super PAC went up on the air on Wednesday, the first of a series of expected ads that is part of an effort to improve Cornyn’s numbers and damage Paxton’s.

According to a third GOP operative, the hope is for some clarity in the race to arrive around Labor Day. Texas notoriously has an early candidate filing deadline — Dec. 8 this year. 

In that time, Cornyn’s team must quickly figure out a cohesive message (or messages) to wield against Paxton, who is considered a walking opposition-research book among many Republicans even as he has an intense backing amongst some MAGA voters. The Texas AG was acquitted by the state Senate in 2023 after allegations of political bribery. He was also charged with securities fraud in 2015, with those eventually being dismissed earlier this year. 

Those problems were only highlighted in recent weeks when Angela Paxton, a Texas state senator and Paxton’s wife, filed for divorce “on biblical grounds,” citing “recent discoveries.” 

“The hard part of running against Ken Paxton … is there are so many things — it’s hard to know which thing you have to center on,” the third GOP operative with experience working on Senate races said, arguing that chipping away at the populist Christian vote is crucial for the incumbent. 

This has prompted GOP leaders to prod Trump in search of an endorsement to boost Cornyn, but even the senator has admitted that doesn’t seem to be coming yet. According to the strategist, Trump has made it clear in recent weeks that if he endorses anyone, it would likely be Cornyn. 

Awaiting the eventual nominee will likely be former Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas), who lost last year to Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) by 8.5 percentage points even with massive Democratic spending in the state. If Paxton emerges to the general election, both sides of the aisle view this as a competitive race.

“Right now, it looks like Ken Paxton wins that primary, at least on paper. The other thing that same piece of paper shows is that Colin Allred beats Ken Paxton — and it can happen,” the second GOP operative said.

Some are pushing back on that narrative, however.

“Even with the worst case scenario in Texas, the fundamentals remain solidly red just more expensive,” one national Republican strategist said.

Michigan

The battle to replace the retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) rounds out the list as Democrats find themselves in the midst of a nasty primary while top Republicans look to avoid one by boosting former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.), their preferred candidate. 

Democrats are in the early stages of a three-way primary between Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.), state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D) and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed. 

Stevens has opened the race as a slight favorite according to early surveys, with McMorrow and El-Sayed, who is backed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), trailing not far behind as they attempt to stake out their lanes and boost their name-ID in quick order. 

When asked to handicap the race, GOP operatives largely agreed on three things: that Stevens would be the toughest general election opponent, McMorrow has the biggest boom-or-bust potential in the field and that the best chance for Republicans to flip the seat involves El-Sayed becoming the nominee. 

“He’s going to invigorate their base. You’ve got to draw a stark contrast and you’ve got to hope you win enough independents. That’s the game,” the first GOP operative said about El-Sayed. “You need someone who’s going to terrify our base.”

Still, Rogers remains a question mark for some Republicans as they wonder why he could be successful this cycle after not being able to get across the finish line last year, when Trump was on the ballot and the environment was considered more favorable for Republicans.

“I don’t know what changes that gives us an edge without him on the ballot,” the second strategist said. 

Some of Rogers’ woes from the 2024 bid are also cropping up this cycle, headlined by lackluster fundraising that prompted complaints from many corners of the party during his initial Senate run. The former congressman only raised $745,000 in the second quarter and has $1.1 million in the bank. He raised an additional $779,000 for his joint fundraising account. 

By contrast, Stevens, McMorrow and El Sayed posted at least $1.8 million hauls, with the congresswoman leading the way with $2.8 million — $1.5 million of which was transferred from her House account. 

Rogers also might be facing a primary in short order as Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Mich.) is gearing up for a challenge.

Still, while it’s been decades since a Republican won a Senate seat in Michigan, the national Republican strategist contended the state is trending in their direction.

The strategist noted that Sen. Elise Slotkin (D-Mich.), who defeated Rogers in 2024, won by less than 0.5 points after having the benefit of evading a competitive primary.

“While some speculate Texas is trending blue, the data tells a different story—Michigan remains the more competitive battleground,” the strategist said.