Where the summer COVID-19 infections are hitting hardest

The number of people with COVID-19 in the U.S. is low but increasing, according to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) data released Friday. 

COVID-19 is trending up in many mid-Atlantic, Southeast, Southern, and West Coast states. The agency said infections are “growing or likely growing” in 40 states, based on emergency department visit data as of July 29. Infections were unchanged in nine states. 

The weekly percentage of emergency department visits among people diagnosed with COVID-19 is low, but growing, the CDC said. Visits were highest for children younger than 4 years old, which experts said makes sense because many remain unvaccinated. 

WastewaterSCAN, which monitors infectious diseases through municipal wastewater systems, categorized national coronavirus levels as “high” and trending upward since mid-July.  

According to the CDC, the wastewater viral activity level for coronavirus is currently low, and only Alabama, Florida, Kentucky, Louisiana, California, Alaska and Texas reported “high” or “very high” levels. 

Experts say a lack of data is making it harder to track COVID-19 in real time, but the available information indicates the expected seasonal wave is happening.  

Since 2020, COVID-19 has peaked twice per year. Cases rise in the winter and drop into the spring, and then again in the summer as travel peaks and people seek air-conditioned indoor spaces away from the heat. 

 While other respiratory viruses remain at low levels until the winter, experts have said COVID-19's ability to mutate sets it apart and contributes to a much higher baseline infection rate. More cases circulating year-round means more opportunities for the virus to mutate. 

The vaccine being updated for the coming fall season is targeted to the JN.1 variant, as it was last year. But Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has significantly narrowed recommendations on who should get the vaccine, raising significant questions about the availability and affordability come the fall.  

In May, Kennedy said the shots would no longer be recommended for healthy kids, a decision that health experts have said lacks scientific basis. A coalition of medical groups subsequently sued over the move.   

In addition, a new policy requires all updated COVID-19 vaccines to undergo extensive placebo-controlled clinical trials, as if it were a new shot rather than an update to one that already exists. 

The updated COVID-19 shots are expected to be available in the fall to adults 65 and up and kids and adults with at least one medical condition that puts them at risk for severe illness — the groups exempt from the clinical trial requirement.