Texas becomes battleground for Democratic presidential hopefuls

A slew of potential Democratic presidential candidates are taking front-line positions in the battle over Texas and redistricting, a fight with huge implications for the midterm elections that is giving ambitious politicians a chance to show their loyalty to the party base.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) and Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker (D), who could both be heavyweights in a 2028 primary field, are both threatening to push through new congressional lines in response to Texas. Pritzker is also playing host to some of the Texas state Democrats who fled the state.

Former Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg, another potential presidential candidate, lacks the kind of office that would allow him to set up a redistricting fight. But he’s making sure he’s seen on the issue and hosted a live conversation on Instagram on Monday with a Democratic representative from Texas.

The Texas redistricting battle comes as Democrats have been itching for an opportunity to show voters they can put up a fight. 

For 2028 hopefuls, it’s a chance to stand out with the Democratic grassroots.

“This is an issue that may not necessarily animate the electorate, but it ignites the base and the donor community,” said former Rep. Steve Israel (N.Y.), who led the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee from 2011 to 2015. “Democrats like Newsom, Pritzker … among others, are at least showing that rolling over isn’t a strategy.” 

“You have to fight fire with fire,” Israel added.

Political observers say the motivation is twofold for Democrats. The party as a whole wants to show voters they are finding their footing on the heels of a devastating loss of the White House and both houses of Congress in 2024. And possible 2028 contenders want to display their leadership potential.

An AP-NORC poll released last week revealed that 25 percent of surveyed Democrats view their party as “weak” and “ineffective,” among other negative traits that constitute the party’s record-low approval ratings.

As a result, strategists say the party should amp up its resistance efforts.  

Newsom is following suit by countering Texas and calling for a special election in November to redraw the maps in California. Other Democratic governors have thrown their support behind them and signaled they’ll look at their own maps.

On Monday, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D), who is up for reelection next year but is not expected to run for president in 2028, said she would follow Newsom’s approach. 

“All is fair in love and war,” Hochul said. 

Strategists say they expect other Democrats to take a similar approach.

“The one thing Democrats are aligned on right now is you got to fight and you got to get caught trying,” said Democratic strategist Joel Payne. 

While Payne called the redistricting battle “a process fight” with a “limited shelf life,” he said Democrats can play hardball on the issue to make the point that their party can put up a fight. 

The issue gives potential 2028 candidates an opportunity to create a brand with voters.

“It’s not a defining issue, but it's a defining characteristic of a candidate,” said Republican strategist Susan Del Percio, who does not support Trump.

Still, Del Percio cautioned that it’s a gamble for would-be candidates like Newsom and Pritzker.

“The problem is, of course, can they get it done?” said Del Percio. “Because if they can't, then it's something that they didn't get done that they said they were going to fight for.”

“If they fancy themselves contenders … they have to deliver something, even if it's just taking it to court,” Del Percio added. “They've got to go at it full throttle. They also then have to be willing to say, ‘You know what, we're willing to play dirty too.' I don't think that hurts a candidate in this day and age.”

Democratic strategist Basil Smikle, who served as executive director of the New York State Democratic Party, said the redistricting fight is “an important moment for Democrats.” 

“I think for over a decade, Democrats lived by the 'If they go low, we go high' mantra. … You play by the rules, sort of take the high road, and then eventually everybody will kind of see things their way,” said Smikle. “But we're well past that point.”

He said that for working-class voters, “any moment of hesitation in stepping up to that fight will cause a voter to say, ‘I don't think this person is there for me, is going to be fighting for me, is going to stand up for me.’” 

“That's an opening Democrats, particularly at this moment, can't afford to provide,” Smikle added.

At the same time, strategists caution that as soon as Democrats — including those who are weighing bids in 2028 — start to play dirty, they could lose a talking point that has been central to campaigns and rhetoric since President Trump first took office in 2016.

“If you’re saying you have a core value, and one of them, for example, is democracy, which we heard Democrats talking about an awful lot over the last eight years … then you lose that,” Del Percio said. “‘We're going to play and fight dirty like Republicans,’ which means you can't complain when the Republicans fight dirty.”

“And that's a big decision to make. That's putting a lot on the table for them,” she added.

But some political observers say that the issue of redistricting is too far removed from voters’ everyday lives for it to push them in either direction. 

“Redistricting is important to all the political geeks, be they in media, be they in academia, be they in actual politics itself,” said Jon Taylor, a professor of political science at the University of Texas at San Antonio. “But the average voter probably couldn’t care less … other than noticing their member of Congress may have changed.”

Jared Gans and Julia Mueller contributed.