Blue state Republicans sound alarm on redistricting tit-for-tat 

Blue state Republicans whose political futures would be at risk in retaliatory redistricting efforts by Democrats are sounding the alarm on Texas's mid-decade effort to pad the GOP majority.

President Trump’s push to have Texas redraw its House maps — with a goal of picking up five more seats ahead of next year — has prompted red and blue states alike to consider redrawing their maps in response. Mid-decade redistricting being considered in California alone could cancel out Republicans’ wins in the Lone Star State.

The redistricting tit-for-tat is frustrating blue state Republicans.

“I think the whole thing is pretty disgusting,” Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R-Calif.), whose reelection could be at risk if California Democrats pursue new maps, told The Hill of the redistricting battles across the country. Constituents don't want politicians manufacturing “a temporary gain by — any side — manipulating lines.”

Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Calif.), who also could face running in an even more competitive House in California, introduced a bill this week that would prohibit mid-decade redistricting.

Kiley told The Hill that California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s (D) plans for a special election to circumvent the state’s independent redistricting commission is “a very dangerous thing,” and “a threat to Democracy in our state.”

“I don't like what's happening in Texas either,” Kiley said. “The idea that we're going to start constantly redrawing maps, and we could see this domino effect where districts or states across the country are shuffling the lines on their maps — it creates great instability. It creates chaos. It's a huge distraction.”

Texas Republicans’ efforts to pass their new map stalled when Democrats fled the state to stop the GOP from achieving a quorum, or the minimum number of lawmakers needed in order to conduct business. Those maps will inevitably pass, however, given Republicans hold a majority in the state legislature, have a GOP governor and there’s a conservative majority on the Texas Supreme Court.

The redistricting battle in Texas has unnerved Democratic governors, who have criticized the GOP for trying to change their House lines ahead of an election year. But it’s also prompted California, New York and Illinois officials to explore their own options to redraw district lines, saying they have to fight fire with fire.

Caught in the cross-fire are blue state Republicans who face a conundrum: They’re against seeing their own House districts drawn out even as some of them may support the GOP push happening in places like Texas.

But members of the party warn it’s a lose-lose situation for both parties. 

“I think they’re unintended consequences to all of this, and I'm not sure those unintended consequences aren't gonna be felt by both sides,” said former Rep. John Faso (R-N.Y.), who advised Republicans during their last redistricting fight in New York.

LaMalfa agreed with Kiley about the Texas redistricting effort: “It’s not a good look down there either.” But he is not cosponsoring Kiley’s bill, skeptical it will go anywhere.

Top House Republican leaders have been largely quiet about the redistricting battles, but they are well aware about the concerns from their members. 

Kiley said he has talked to Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) about his bill. While he declined to reveal the details of that conversation, he said the legislation is a chance for Johnson and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) to “show some leadership and say enough is enough.”

LaMalfa said that the redistricting battles were discussed on a recent conference call with House Republicans, and that members were largely opposed to the redistricting changes.

“The outcry from Republicans isn’t limited to California. Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.), also situated in a competitive district, announced this week he’s introducing legislation that would ban gerrymandering.”

“Gerrymandering is wrong and should be banned everywhere — including in New York, Texas, California, and Illinois,” he wrote on X. “I’m introducing legislation to ban it. I look forward to every single Democrat signing on to it.”

Some at-risk Republicans, like Reps. Young Kim (R-Calif.) and Kevin Calvert (R-Calif.), are staying focused on the battles in their own state without necessarily dinging fellow Republicans in Texas for upending their maps.

In written statements, Kim said that overriding California’s independent redistricting commission “for partisan reasons disenfranchises voters and degrades trust in our political system,” and Calvert said that “a partisan political gerrymander is not what the voters of California want.”

And the National Republican Congressional Committee, which is responsible for ensuring the GOP maintains its majority, has so far only focused on dinging Newsom for entertaining a redistricting effort, with NRCC spokesman Mike Marinella calling it a “desperate and pathetic attempt to appeal to the radical base (who already hates him) so he can chase after his political ambitions.”

The larger issue of mid-decade redistricting and gerrymandering has become a lightning rod between the parties. Democrats have criticized Texas Republicans for redrawing maps in the middle of the decade and making an already gerrymandered House map more friendly for Republicans.

Republicans, however, say Democrats are being hypocritical. They point out that New York, for example, has sought to engage in mid-decade redistricting after Democrats overplayed their hand and had their maps struck down by a court in 2022. The GOP, too, says it’s rich for Democrats to complain about gerrymandering when the states that Texas Democrats are traveling to, like Illinois and New York, have also been gerrymandered.

Some blue-state Republicans are more at risk than others. 

“They would have to pass a constitutional amendment proposal in two consecutive legislatures, which means the earliest this could be on the ballot would be in 2027,” Faso said of New York Democrats’ efforts, calling it “light years away in political terms.”

LaMalfa recognized, too, that lawmakers in Congress have little to no power to halt the redistricting wars that have the potential to anger voters and threaten members’ reelections.

“We can say, ‘Hey, don't do this,’ and there's enough saying what we are saying, ‘Hey, don't do this.’ But they're going to do what they want,” LaMalfa said.