Whole Hog Politics: Checking in on Election Day 2025
On the menu: Classical on the rocks; Newsom unveils Texas revenge package; Brown in; Where do you put 653 House members?; A dumpling for a bear
There are many kinds of bias in the news business, but few as durable and reliable as New Yorkism: the outsized place that news happening in America’s media capital gets in the national discussion.
While home to an impressively large 6 percent of the nation’s population, the New York metropolitan area definitely gets more than its fair share of coverage thanks to being the home to the two largest newspapers in the country and the headquarters of every broadcast news division.
So it has been with the coverage of New York’s mayoral election, which, aside from being easy and interesting to cover for big-time journos, has featured a great deal of drama: A surprising primary win by telegenic socialist Zohran Mamdani, who disrupted former Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s comeback bid. It’s got ideological polarization, allegations of antisemitism, personal attacks, the always-wild incumbent Eric Adams and a guy with signature headwear.
But what New York doesn’t seem to have right now is a very competitive race.
With less than 12 weeks to go, Mamdani seems to have not only weathered the initial backlash after his surprise victory but established himself as the nearly prohibitive front-runner.
A new Siena University poll shows Mamdani up 19 points over Cuomo, 32 points over Republican Curtis Sliwa and 37 points ahead of Adams. There is still a considerable chunk of undecided voters or supporters of candidates even more marginal than Adams, but even with ranked choice voting, it doesn’t look like much of a race. If Cuomo was the second choice of every Adams and Sliwa voter — which he won’t be — and none of the undecided came in for Mamdani — which some of them will — it would only be a tie in an automatic runoff.
Woof.
The good news for Cuomo here is that Adams is far below the viability threshold and that 7 percent could become just a point or two as voters conclude he isn’t a serious contender. The former governor has time to change the race, but that’s a tall order when you’re such a well-defined quantity in voter’s minds. He can’t sneak up on anybody the way Mamdani could in the primary.
So what about the races not in New York, particularly across the river in New Jersey and down in Virginia.
While New York City’s electorate and issues bear little resemblance to the broader nation, here are a couple of medium-sized states with populations that end up looking a great deal like the broad, national electorate the parties will confront in next year’s midterms.
Let’s start next door in New Jersey, where Republicans are hoping that suburbanites’ backlash against Mamdani’s perceived radicalism will work in their favor.
New Jersey Republicans also have a tried and tested candidate in Jack Ciattarelli, a former state assembly member who came within 3 points of unseating incumbent Gov. Phil Murphy four years ago. But Democrats have a good horse in the race too, having picked moderate, four-term Rep. Mikie Sherrill to succeed the term-limited Murphy.
Republicans are getting excited because in two polls since the general election was set in June, Ciattarelli has been within 8 points and 6 points of the Democratic front-runner. Given that Ciattarelli closed a much wider gap to make the race competitive with Murphy in 2021, this sounds like a possible winner for Republicans.
But we should note the significant differences between then and now: Murphy was bogged down by the unpopularity of his aggressive COVID restrictions and voters were growing increasingly frustrated with the ineffectual and left-leaning Biden administration. Local man Donald Trump wasn’t really in the picture. Now much of that has been reversed.
Those same polls show that Trump is even more unpopular than Murphy in New Jersey and voters looking to send a message of change will be voting for the blue team and not the red. Neither candidate has huge statewide name identification but neither seems obviously defective, so this will probably function more like a generic ballot test than a clash of personalities. And that’s what has New Jersey Democrats feeling, as the saying goes, “nauseously optimistic.”
In Virginia, the nausea is all on the GOP side, where Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears is trying to become the first Republican to hold the governor’s mansion for her party in consecutive terms since 1998 as she seeks to succeed Gov. Glenn Youngkin.
For an idea of how that’s working out, the state’s police union took the unusual step of endorsing Earle-Sears’s Democratic opponent, former Rep. Abigail Spanberger, before endorsing every other Republican candidate for statewide office. There are snubs, and then there are snubs …
There’s cross river context in Virginia, too. In Washington, D.C., across the Potomac, President Trump is taking over the police and bulldozing homeless encampments as he denounces crime and disorder. Spanberger, though, made a strenuous point about maintaining a tough-on-crime stance and shunning “defund the police” rhetoric in her time in Congress.
But other than on law-and-order issues, everything else Trump is doing to the race is negative for his party in Virginia. Mass federal firings, culture war shenanigans and increasingly broad immigration enforcement measures are all liabilities in a state that relies on federal paychecks, has among the most college-educated electorates in the country and a large and growing Hispanic population.
That leaves Earle-Sears in a tricky spot when it comes to the leader of her party, who has at least so far done her the favor of not publicly endorsing her or threatening to campaign for her.
There has not been a ton of polling in the race, but the little that we have shows Spanberger, who enjoys a massive fundraising advantage, in something of a boat race. She’s up 14 points in a Virginia Commonwealth University poll with an electorate that has a pretty favorable view of Youngkin and a pretty poor view of Trump.
Again, almost 12 weeks is a long time, but without a change in the race soon, this one will fall out of reach for Republicans before the first day of fall.
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NUTRITIONAL INFORMATION
Trump Job Performance
Average Approval: 43 percent
Average Disapproval: 53.2 percent
Net Score: -10.2 points
Change from last week: No change
Change from one month ago: ↑ 2.2 points
[Average includes: CNBC 46 percent approve - 51 percent disapprove; Ipsos/Reuters 40 percent approve - 56 percent disapprove; Emerson 46 percent approve - 47 percent disapprove; Fox News 46 percent approve - 54 percent disapprove; Gallup 37 percent approve - 58 percent disapprove]
More Americans choose not to booze
Do you have occasion to use alcoholic beverages such as liquor, wine or beer, or are you a total abstainer?
Yes, drink; No, total abstainer
2021: 60 percent; 39 percent
2022: 67 percent; 33 percent
2025: 54 percent; 44 percent
[Gallup survey of 1,002 adults, July 7-21, 2025]
ON THE SIDE: HAYDN IN PLAIN SIGHT
The New York Times: “For the last decade, the classical pianist Hunter Noack has been embarking on an unusual journey: He hauls a thousand-pound 1912 Steinway concert grand piano to places in the outdoors not known for hosting concerts. Picture a man seated at a piano beside a lake. It could also be on a mountaintop, in a forest or meadow. … 'I get excited at the idea of bringing a piano where no piano has gone before,' Noack said. … The concerts are held rain or shine, hot or cold. (The temperature during concerts has ranged from subfreezing to above 100 degrees.) Among the notable locales where Noack has played are the entrance to Yellowstone (via the Roosevelt Arch in Montana), Joshua Tree National Park in California, Crater Lake in southern Oregon and Banff National Park in Canada. … Among other wildlife that made appearances were free-range horses, birds and deer.”
PRIME CUTS
Newsom plows ahead with redistricting, frames move as temporary: ABC News: “California Gov. Gavin Newsom announced Thursday that he is moving forward with putting proposed new congressional maps for the state on the ballot on a Nov. 4 special election in an attempt to counter mid-decade redistricting being pushed by Republicans in Texas. … He said the state government will affirm its commitment to the state's independent redistricting commission after the 2030 census, ‘but we're asking the voters for their consent to do midterm redistricting in 2026, 2028 and 2030 for the congressional maps to respond to what's happening in Texas … and we'll do so in a way that also affirms our desire as a state to level the playing field all across the United States.’”
ICE puts a chill on the event: KTLA: “Federal agents were in attendance as Gov. Gavin Newsom took to downtown Los Angeles Thursday to promote his redistricting plan. Newsom, who has proposed changing California’s congressional districts to offset a similar action by Republican-controlled Texas, spoke at the Japanese American National Museum. Just outside in the Little Tokyo area, however, about 100 federal agents gathered, presumably for another immigration raid."
A muddled race for California governor: WHTM: “New polling in the California Governor’s race shows Katie Porter (D) and Steve Hilton (R) leading the field after former Vice President Kamala Harris decided not to enter the race. The survey showed the former congresswoman Porter leading the field with 18% with a six-point bump since April. Hilton, a media personality and former British policy advisor, received 12% in his first appearance in the Emerson College Polling survey. Former Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco (R) received 7%, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (D) received 5%, and businessman Rick Caruso (D) received 4% in the Emerson College Polling survey. Thirty-eight percent of voters polled were undecided in the race, down from 54% in April when Harris had not yet announced her intentions to stay out of the race. … Voters were largely split on Newsom’s plan to potentially redraw congressional districts in response to Texas, with 33% of California voters favoring a redraw, 25% opposed, and 42% undecided.”
Kounalakis ditches race to succeed Newsom: KCRA: “Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis has dropped out of the 2026 governor's race and is instead running for another state office … Kounalakis' campaign website now has multiple references across her page that indicate she is now running to become the state treasurer.”
Brown tries again, banking on Ohio midterm swing: The New York Times: “Former Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio plans to try to return to the Senate in 2026, giving the Democratic Party a strong recruit in its effort to take back control of the chamber next year, according to three people with knowledge of his decision. Mr. Brown, who served in the Senate for three terms until his defeat in 2024, immediately becomes the Democratic front-runner to face Senator Jon Husted, a freshman Republican whom Gov. Mike DeWine appointed to fill the vacancy created by JD Vance’s elevation to the vice presidency. … In the Senate race, Mr. Husted is seeking to win the remainder of Mr. Vance’s term. Whoever wins will need to face voters again in 2028 to secure a full six-year term. … Republicans currently hold a 53-47 Senate majority, and Mr. Vance serves as a tiebreaking vote, meaning Democrats must flip four seats to regain control of the chamber.”
Maine Dems, weary of waiting on Gov. Janet Mills, ready challenges to Collins: The Washington Post: “Sen. Susan Collins is, by far, the most vulnerable Republican senator facing voters next year. And yet, Democrats are grumbling about the campaign against her, with many waiting — somewhat begrudgingly — to see if Maine Gov. Janet Mills will challenge the five-term incumbent. … Mills is currently the only elected Democrat in Maine with a proven ability to win statewide. … She is viewed in Maine as a centrist Democrat. … While some Democrats see Mills as their best shot at defeating Collins, it’s not clear what the governor herself wants to do. … There was some hope among national Democrats that Rep. Jared Golden would challenge Collins, but he declined to run for Senate and is instead running for reelection. Ryan Fecteau, the speaker of the Maine House, and Cathy Breen, a former state senator, are both considering a possible bid, Democrats tell us. … And Aaron Frey, the attorney general of Maine, is likely to get in if Mills does not run.”
Crunching the numbers on North Carolina Senate: DDHQ: “[A] look at the aggregate U.S. House vote in North Carolina [in 2024] suggests the state could shift to the left sufficiently for Democrats to win in a state that Trump carried by about 3 points in 2024. … Yet the less right-leaning 2024 result does not necessarily augur that Democrats can count on North Carolina to shift their way if the nation does. This is because North Carolina is generally one of the more ‘inelastic’ states in U.S. elections — that is, its electorate tends to move less in response to swings in the national electoral environment. That’s partly because of racial polarization: North Carolina’s white voters have a clear Republican lean while the state’s sizable base of Black voters — about one-fifth of the electorate, second to only Georgia in magnitude among swing states — are overwhelmingly Democratic. In terms of its party allegiances, this makes North Carolina’s electorate ‘stickier’ year-in and year-out.”
SHORT ORDER
Freedom Caucus stalwart jumps in race to succeed [Tommy] Tuberville in Alabama — The Hill
Poll shows [Elise] Stefanik way behind but gaining on Hochul for NY governor — The Hill
Effort to unseat Sen. Lindsey Graham in South Carolina primary narrows to a mega MAGA stalwart — The Hill
Georgia AG files suit to block his rival in gubernatorial run from self-funding — AP
Chip Roy, long a thorn in House leadership’s side, eyes Texas AG run — The Hill
DeSantis, frozen out by state GOP, may be grooming successor with Lt. Gov. pick — AP
Warning signs for Republicans with Hispanic voters — Liberal Patriot
2028 Watch: [Ruben] Gallego wraps Iowa visit, on to New Hampshire — The Hill
TABLE TALK: MAGA MIRAGE
“All of the candidates in the race think they’re the Trump candidate.” — Alex Stroman, former South Carolina GOP executive director, on the increasingly nasty race for governor in the Palmetto State, which includes Rep. Nancy Mace and state Attorney General Alan Wilson.
MAILBAG
“I believe that, as long as there are people interested in politics and outcomes, there will be gerrymandering. The real current problem concerning it is there is not a level playing field for the two opposing parties. Redistricting commissions get in the way in too many big Democratic-controlled states and they need to be undone. Some people think that having such commissions staffed by independent people everywhere would be the cure. I disagree. Where are you going to find competent independent people who truly don't care about outcomes? The moon? If you add 218 or however many extra people to the House of Representatives, where are they going to sit? Will committee hearings and floor votes all be conducted via Zoom?” — Ken Stevens, Columbia, Md.
Mr. Stevens,
I tend to agree with you about the necessity of understanding redistricting for what it is: an exercise of political power. I am sure that those folks who live in places like your hometown in the Baltimore burbs feel that most intensely as it relates to Democrats in urban centers, while those who live in an urban center in a red state, say, Nashville, would experience it most acutely from the other direction.
It would be better if state legislators cared more about designing districts that provided the best, most stable, most convenient districts for their constituents and less about obtaining partisan advantage. But if Old Bay didn’t have paprika in it, it wouldn’t stain your fingers when you picked crabs. It’s just the way of things.
And impartial commissions don’t ultimately solve the problem because each map involves subjective decisionmaking, in which competing goods must be balanced. Is it more essential for a district to be compact or to contain voters of a similar socioeconomic or cultural situation? What about precedent? Should longstanding districts be maintained even when the population changes? All are worthwhile considerations, but often in conflict. Vesting that power in the hands of commissions insulates those decisionmakers from the voting public.
There is a great deal to be said for having experts craft potential maps from which lawmakers can choose. I think a system in which lawmakers assigned the work of drafting four or five maps and then holding hearings before voting strikes me as a good compromise.
But the most direct way to deal with gerrymandering is, I believe, expanding the House of Representatives so that the consequences of any single gerrymandering would be much smaller. It would also create more competitive, swing districts regardless of the best efforts of the gerrymanderers.
As for what to do with another 218 members of the House, Washington Post columnist Danielle Allen asked architects to take a stab at how to accommodate new members and some of the results were, frankly, pretty cool, particularly putting the House “in the round.”
All best,
c
“When I ran for Congress back in 2002, there were about 625,000 people in the district, but it only took about 15,000 votes to win the Republican Primary, and since it was a pretty red district, the winner of the primary was a shoo-in in November. That needs to end, since it essentially means the ‘tail is wagging’ the dog. I think Congress should go back to the old ways and pick a number, be it 100,000, 200,000, 250,000, whatever ... and then however many districts that creates is how many it creates, so be it. As the population grows, the number of Representatives will grow. I'm envisioning at least 2,000 or more Representatives and growing. … On the other hand, people will complain that the Capitol can't hold that many representatives, to that I say. ... Why have Congress meet in Washington at all? Remote voting should be allowed. Why not just have them all do one huge video conference?” — Dave Kovatch, Rhodelia, Ky.
Mr. Kovatch,
Whoa, whoa, whoa! I love your enthusiasm, but that’s a lot of lawmakers. We want for members of Congress to be able to reason together and experience a little unit cohesion.
The House should be for exercising political competition within itself but also against the Senate, the states, the judiciary and, most essentially, the executive. Thousands of lawmakers connected virtually with one and other strikes me as a recipe for increased factionalism and an even greater degree of partisan capture. Ideally, lawmakers come to town and develop both expertise and relationships as they serve. At the end of three terms in the House, we’d hope to see members who have developed mastery of subjects and of the legislative process. Committee assignments should be consequential because committees should be powerful.
I think that can be accommodated while growing the House by 50 percent, but not in a world where the members never have to leave the comfort of their home offices. In fact, I’d also like to ditch the housing allowance and build dormitory housing for lawmakers while they are in town.
All best,
c
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FOR DESSERT: GRITTY WOULD HAVE STOOD HIS GROUND
AP: “[Pro hockey team] Seattle Kraken forward John Hayden and the team’s blue-haired troll mascot had a close call with a brown bear during a promotional video shoot in Alaska. Hayden and the mascot named Buoy were on a fly-fishing outing in Katmai National Park as part of a trip promoting youth hockey when the bear approached, video released by the team shows. Knee-deep in a shallow river, they wore waders and other fly-fishing gear. Hayden had been fishing, but a guide quickly took the rod from him. The bear charged toward the mascot, splashing water, but turned away before making contact as Hayden, Buoy and the film crew waded back to shore through a gentle current. … The NHL team said it didn’t intend to involve the bear in filming, but included it in a video posted to social media. … ‘I want to blame it on Buoy,’ Hayden said on the video afterward. ‘They were pretty interested in his look.’”
Chris Stirewalt is the politics editor for The Hill and NewsNation, the host of "The Hill Sunday" on NewsNation and The CW, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and the author of books on politics and the media. Meera Sehgal contributed to this report.