Democrats face dwindling options to counter GOP on redistricting

Democrats face dwindling options to counter the GOP on redistricting as more and more red states signal they will move forward with rewriting their maps.

California could pass a new House map this fall, giving Democrats an opportunity to largely nix many of the likely gains Republicans will make in Texas. The party is also likely to pick up a seat in Utah if GOP lawmakers are forced to redraw their House map.

But they see few good options remaining after those states. The party already enjoys largely favorable maps in Maryland and Illinois, making redistricting in either state politically risky for its members and a tougher lift. And other blue states face hurdles that make redistricting challenging, if not nearly impossible, for them to undertake in time for the 2026 midterms.

“The challenge for Democratic states is that Democrats have put in guardrails around political redistricting, and it is an unlevel playing field, because red states like mine have zero guardrails and zero shame, and they are willing to do anything that Donald Trump tells them to do, so it's more challenging,” said Rep. Veronica Escobar (D-Texas).

Still, Democrats say no stone should be left unturned when the battle for the House will come down to a game of inches next year.

“My view also is, if California was able to find a path, surely some of our blue state friends can also try to find a path,” Escobar added.

Texas Republicans fired the first salvo in a broad and far-reaching fight over control of the House in 2026 by redrawing their maps this summer to net up to five pickup opportunities.

California responded in kind, with Democrats putting a new House map in front of voters this November that could effectively neutralize the expected gains made in Texas.

Though Illinois and Maryland are mulling redrawing their maps, both states have little wiggle room to try to add seats. Illinois Democrats have a 14-3 edge, while Maryland Democrats enjoy a 7-1 advantage. Maryland already tried once to pass an 8-0 map to knock off Rep. Andy Harris (R-Md.) in the Eastern Shore, but their map was struck down in 2022 — and could face a similar fate again.

That’s not to mention the fact some members are signaling there may not be enough buy-in to proceed, at least right now.

“I'm neutral on that conversation,” said Rep. Delia Ramirez (D-Ill.), when asked if she wanted to see a new map potentially in Illinois. But she noted she had concerns “in the how and at what expense.”

“I think everything should be on the table at this point,” said Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) “And there are, you know, complicated political legal questions in Maryland as everywhere else, so I take it, we're not there yet.”

The path ahead for other blue states is trickier because many use redistricting commissions or have different rules that guide how the map-making process works.

Republicans don’t face as many of those obstacles over when and how their House maps can be made. Missouri Republicans recently passed a new map that would effectively eliminate Rep. Emanuel Cleaver’s (D-Mo.) district, while Ohio Republicans are expected to try to make a new map to net two more seats. Other states like Indiana, Kansas and Florida are looking into redistricting, as well.

And if the Supreme Court issues a ruling weakening the Voting Rights Act this term, that could have major implications for states like Alabama and Louisiana, which recently added second Black-majority House districts.

Yet Democrats see several reasons to remain cautiously optimistic that the redistricting wars won’t imperil their bid for the majority next year. 

In addition to the new California map, Democrats are also hoping to add a seat in Utah. Meanwhile, in Missouri, the party is looking to hold a referendum on the new GOP-friendly map, allowing the possibility the new lines could be shot down by voters. Democrats and civil rights groups are also looking to block the Texas and Missouri maps, though it’s unclear how successful those attempts will be.

If Maryland and Illinois are able to add new seats and survive legal challenges — a big “if” — they could also nix possible gains in several GOP states.

Democrats have also been encouraged by their overperformance in recent elections this year and see Trump’s policy megabill, particularly its cuts to social safety net programs, as a major liability for the GOP — hearkening to 2018, when Democrats won the House while attacking Republicans over attempts to repeal the Affordable Care Act.

“Regardless of how hard they try to rig congressional maps, it won’t be successful — kicking millions of people off of health care and food assistance so billionaires can get another tax cut has never proven to be a winning strategy,” Democratic National Committee spokesperson Abhi Rahman said in a statement.

Coupled with what’s expected to be a more favorable environment for them next year, Democrats could have a real shot at flipping the House even amid the redistricting fight.

“I think the good news for Democrats is that redistricting is probably not going to decide control of the House,” said Geoffrey Skelley, chief elections analyst at Decision Desk HQ.

Republicans “might gain eight, nine seats out of this, but at the end of the day, Democrats probably still have a decent shot of picking up the dozen to 15 seats that they would need in that scenario to win a majority,” he noted.

One major threat looming over all of this is whether the Supreme Court makes a ruling related to the Voting Rights Act. Skelley noted if that happens, and with enough time for southern states to redraw their maps, “the number of seats that Republicans could gain out of this whole process would increase notably” — rapidly changing the dynamics of an already tumultuous midterm cycle.

“I absolutely am,” said Rep. Al Green (D-Texas), when asked whether he was concerned the high court might rule against the Voting Rights Act. 

"Preclearance would have prevented all of this,” Green said, referring to the section of the Voting Rights Act that required certain states to clear new maps and election laws with the Justice Department ahead of time and that has since been dismantled.

“But they just opened it up now. My hope is that they'll try to put a lid on Pandora's box, but Chief Justice [John] Roberts has been a great disappointment.”