Whole Hog Politics: What’s at stake for Trump’s agenda on Tuesday
On Tuesday, the first act in the story of Donald Trump’s remarkable political resurrection comes to a close. The statewide contests in Virginia and New Jersey, as well as some other races around the country, put us at the one-year mark since Trump’s 2024 victory and give us the first straight-up contest between the parties to compete for voters’ support.
The elections aren’t just about Trump, but going back to the 19th century, these off-cycle votes have been referenda on the party in power. In 2021, when Republican Glenn Youngkin won an upset over Democrat Terry McAuliffe for governor in Virginia, it was a serious warning sign for a Biden administration that was suffering from delusions of grandeur. Same for the surprisingly close race in New Jersey, where former Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli threw a serious scare into incumbent Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy.
The pretty evident takeaway in both places was that voters had grown tired of restrictive COVID policies, especially in schools, and that Biden and the Democrats were wearing out their welcomes with persuadable voters — and that Republicans were fired up. It is a lesson that the blue team should have taken to heart, but did not.
Four years later, Trump and the Republicans have been on a tear unlike anything we’ve seen in politics at least since the Obama blitz of 2009, if not the start of the New Deal. Trump is literally and figuratively tearing Washington down, jamming through unpopular legislation and claiming executive authorities that would have made his predecessors blush. And he’s doing it all without the benefit of a massive win behind him. If Biden was taking a risk by going big after a popular-vote win of less than 5 points, Trump is going for broke by trying to transform the country after winning by a point and a half.
Tuesday, we see how it’s paying off.
If the Trump-aligned option wins in any of the key races — the Republican gubernatorial nominees in Virginia and New Jersey, independent New York City mayoral candidate Andrew Cuomo or “no” on California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s (D) gerrymandering ballot initiative, Proposition 50 — it would be a very encouraging sign for a Republican Party that right now is bracing for a lot of bad news on Tuesday. Even a substantial overperformance in those contests would be a sign that the Trump transformation has political staying power.
If the expected outcome occurs — an easy win for Democrats in Virginia, a closer but still decisive margin in New Jersey, a dominant performance by Democrat Zohran Mamdani and a double-digit victory for Newsom’s Prop 50 — it will be a sign that the ordinary gravity of politics still applies even in this very unusual moment. And if expected advantages turn into blowouts, it will be the strongest indicator yet that Republicans are facing a reckoning in 2026.
Thought of that way, the results in these races will provide cues to national politicians. If Republicans get skunked on Tuesday, you can bet that the existing GOP dissent over Trump’s policy of executing suspected drug runners, tariffs, the case files from the Jeffrey Epstein investigation, ethical lapses and other issues will grow. There won’t be a revolt, since the 2026 primaries start in just a few months, but there could be more resistance from a party that has been extraordinarily obedient to its president.
Of course, Democrats would very surely overinterpret a good night on Tuesday as a sign that they’re on the right track, a fact very much not in evidence. And a Newsom win in California and a victory by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s (D-N.Y.) ally Mamdani will speed up the tempo for both of their expected presidential candidacies. The fight for 2028 is going to be bruising, and it will start to get rougher after Tuesday.
Any big surprises in Republicans’ favor, meanwhile, would be jet fuel for Trump’s agenda. Republicans wouldn’t need much prodding to go even deeper down the MAGA mine and Democratic despair has been the norm since last November.
On Tuesday, we get to find out which way things are heading.
[Programming alert: Watch "The Hill Sunday with Chris Stirewalt" for the first look at new polls from our partners at Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) and guests including Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), candidates from Virginia’s election, and our best-in-the-business panel of journalists, including the great George Will. And watch special coverage Tuesday from 7 p.m. ET to midnight on NewsNation, with our whole anchor team and all the calls from DDHQ.]
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NUTRITIONAL INFORMATION
Trump Job Performance
Average Approval: 40.8 percent
Average Disapproval: 55.6 percent
Net Score: -14.8 points
Change from last week: ↓ 1.4 points
Change from one month ago: ↓ .6 points
[Average includes: Ipsos/Reuters 40 percent approve - 57 percent disapprove; Quinnipiac University 40 percent approve - 54 percent disapprove; Echelon Insights 46 percent approve - 53% percent disapprove; American Research Group 37 percent approve - 60 percent disapprove; Gallup 41 percent approve - 54 percent disapprove]
Lights out for daylight saving time
Are you in favor of daylight saving time, or not?
1999; 2025
Yes 73 percent; 40 percent
No 23 percent; 54 percent
[Gallup survey of 1,001 adults, January 2025]
ON THE SIDE: BLINDED BY THE LIGHT
Writer Rowan Jacobsen heads deep into the Sonoran Desert in a quest for a good night’s rest. Harper's Magazine: “The Center for Sleep and Circadian Sciences is a $5 million warren of corridors, guest suites, and a control room built into the basement of a University of Arizona research building. Each suite has a cushy bed, ports in the wall for various diagnostic devices, cameras and intercoms, and futuristic light panels. Light, sound, temperature, and even oxygen concentrations are precisely controlled. It feels like a cross between a Comfort Inn and a panic room. Researchers at the center study everything from the effects of sleep deprivation to the way sleep patterns can be influenced by different intensities and spectrums of light. For that, they use a custom LED array installed in the ceiling. ‘It’s very niche,’ says [researcher Kat Kennedy], as she outfits me with an Actiwatch that records both sleep duration and light exposure. ‘The new lighting software allows us to get really granular, millisecond to millisecond.’”
SHORT ORDER
Another entrant further divides primary field, offering hope for MAGA-targeted Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) — New Orleans Times-Picayune
Iowa Rep. Randy Feenstra makes it official, will seek GOP nod to replace retiring Reynolds — KCCI
A surprise bipartisan deal in Ohio softens gerrymandering blow to Democrats — Punchbowl News
Virginia Democrats jump first hurdle to 2026 gerrymander — The Hill
Hakeem Jeffries gets the green light to push Illinois gerrymander — Punchbowl News
Vice President Vance tries to play it cool on the trail, but 2028 grows nearer — Semafor
TABLE TALK: OR 'BRANDON,' MAYBE?
“I couldn’t hear what they were chanting. I thought they were saying, ‘Let’s go Bills’.” — New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) when asked about the chants of “tax the rich” at the rally she attended for Democratic mayoral nominee Zohran Mamdani.
He’s bean there
“I’m actually a soybean farmer, so I have felt this pain, too.” — Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, an investment guru with a net worth estimated at more than $500 billion, including farmland in North Dakota, discussing the consequences of the U.S.-China trade war on farmers.
They threw the book at her
“I think the sentence that was imposed here is very much designed to help her better understand the importance of those things and make sure that she doesn't — and quite frankly other people don't — take the same type of actions in the future.” — Prosecutor Jake Fauchald of Itasca County, Minn., discussing the case of 51-year-old Danielle Christine Miller, who was sentenced to write a 10-page paper about the importance of voting and the dangers of voter fraud after pleading guilty to casting a ballot in 2024 in the name of her deceased mother.
MAILBAG
“Drop this crap asap. I used to read The Hill all the time, but it has become as bad as the rest of the MSM. I’d like to be educated, not force fed (like geese being force fed and then slaughtered to make foie gras!) Democratic talking points. About to remove the Hill from my New feeds bookmarks. Chris Stirewalt lost any credibility in my opinion during the 2020 election cycle. Surprised that the Hill wants to recycle this not very bright ‘analyst!’ For background, I am a highly educated 69 year-old male, 12 years of post-secondary school education, published author, retired MD with a real skill set for critical reading. Independent voter. And the Hill is sinking faster than the Hindenburg!” — Robert Kindrachuk, Maui, Hawaii
Dr. Kindrachuk,
I am sorry that last week’s note caused you to lose your Maui mellow! And while the Hindenburg didn’t sink, exactly, I certainly get your point. I also imagine that being what sounds like a very right-leaning independent in a place Kamala Harris won by 26 points last year might make a highly politically engaged person of your kind very tetchy about perceived political bias. Hawaii might have great weather, but the political climate would be forbidding for a right winger.
I’m also sorry to see you go. We strive in this note and at The Hill generally to provide news coverage and analysis that is actually independent. That’s good for keeping our covenant with the audience we serve, but also essential for the members of that audience, too.
If we get too accustomed to having our own biases reinforced and seek out only voices that align with our way of thinking, we tend to become hard-hearted in our views of those with whom we disagree. American self-governance depends not on unity, but rather productive disagreement. In this sprawling nation of 340 million, on the edge of which you are lucky to reside, we need to find enough respect for each other to engage on important matters with the understanding that the people with whom we disagree are almost always sincere in their beliefs and believe they are helping. Democrats should know that about you, and you should know that about Democrats.
It’s very easy for me these days to favor neither of our once-great parties, but it’s imperative for all of us that we can see where other people are coming from.
Aloha,
c
“Why do I keep seeing ‘the Democrats caused the shutdown!’ Or ‘the Democrats are unwilling to negotiate.’ Statements like these are wrong! As many who are paying attention, it's obvious the Republicans are the majority in the Congress, the Senate, the Supreme Court, and the president. So, why won't House speaker Mike Johnson call the Republicans back from their vacation that started right at the same day as the shutdown? … The Republicans are perpetuating this shutdown, and passing the blame. I'm one of millions, who are fed up with all of the Republicans posing as their hands tied. You want to negotiate? Then negotiate! …” — Stephen Griswold, Winsted, Conn.
Mr. Griswold,
I would love to get you together with Dr. Kindrachuk and see you all debate what the worst part of last week’s note was, but I would definitely watch from a safe distance!
I think it is fair to say that the Democrats caused the shutdown because they are the ones who are asking for credit for doing so. They can’t have credit without blame. While there are increasing calls to finally abolish the Senate filibuster once and for all, the truth is that Democrats control enough seats in the Senate to block legislation.
I’m a big fan of the filibuster because it makes it harder for the government to make big changes without at least some bipartisan buy-in. We have an anti-majoritarian system of government, and I think that’s a good thing. Senate Democrats are using the power still vested in the minority to try to force Republicans to extend the COVID-era ObamaCare subsidies.
That’s a legitimate use of power but not one that comes at no cost. In this case, there is a direct cost to the federal employees and beneficiaries of welfare programs who are suffering — suffering being intentionally exacerbated by the majority party. There is also the potential political cost to the party driving the shutdown, though I tend to think that these effects will be long forgotten by midterms next year. And I believe the Democrats will eventually “win” the shutdown since Republicans seem increasingly likely to extend those subsidies. And if they don’t, the high cost of health insurance will help Democrats next year far more than any lingering annoyance at the shutdown itself.
If Republicans do come across with more ObamaCare money, that will come at a cost, too. America has become a fiscal basket case, and neither party is offering any kind of serious solution for a disaster that is already contributing to brutal inflation and may one day crush the value of the dollar. That's a bipartisan bummer.
All best,
c
“Why do the Democrats not end the shutdown? Perhaps I am missing something? It seems that if they end the shutdown and the Republicans deliver (subsidy extension) [Democrats] can take credit. If they end the shutdown and the Republicans say no. The Dems are in a sweet position of pointing the finger at the Republicans for not catering to their own voter base etc.. I am assuming the stats publicized are correct about the majority red states being affected … Not related to this article. I am not really focusing on the potential historical ruining of the White House, but it appears a bit crass to facilitate in the middle of a shutdown? Not well thought out! Thanks for listening as my wife is tired of hearing me talk!” — B.D. Frank, Roan Mountain, Tenn.
Mr. Frank,
We’re all for keeping you out of the dog house, so I’m glad you wrote in.
As for the Democrats, I think they will do exactly what you suggest, and very soon. This Saturday has been the obvious point of diminishing returns for Democrats since the start of this shutdown. Not only is it the point of maximum pain for Republicans on health insurance as it marks the beginning of open enrollment, which will include robust premium hikes, but it also comes just days before key off-cycle elections in Virginia, New Jersey and elsewhere. This shutdown has fired up the party’s base and made Democrats feel like there’s something they can do after a demoralizing election defeat and nine months of watching President Trump bulldoze (sometimes literally) the opposition.
By Wednesday, the point will have been made about health insurance and the Democrats will have already swarmed the polls in Virginia and New Jersey. The pain to federal workers, air travelers, and, most agonizingly, families receiving food assistance will no longer be worth the perceived benefits. Plus, if they hold out much longer, the Republicans will withdraw the existing short-term spending package, which runs until Nov. 21, and replace it with a new, longer one.
Next week, look for five additional Democrats, probably including the Senate minority leader and several of the retiring members who don’t have primaries to worry about, agree to go along with the continuing resolution.
All best,
c
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FOR DESSERT: THE COURT WAS ALL EARS
The Wall Street Journal: “Joshua Sussberg sat before a bankruptcy judge at a hearing. He was part of a legal team representing retailer Claire’s. But Sussberg had something else on his mind. The 47-year-old Kirkland & Ellis attorney launched into a story about how about 30 years ago, when he still had hair, he got an ear pierced at the now bankrupt mall fixture. ‘The ear has nothing in it at this moment,’ the restructuring partner told the court via video from his office. Then he threw down a gauntlet. ‘I’m prepared to head back to Claire’s’ for another piercing if a buyer is found and keeps at least some of its roughly 1,300 U.S. stores open, Sussberg vowed. Most corporate bankruptcy hearings are all business. But when the failing company has been a piercer of more than 100 million ears, nobody can stick to courtroom decorum. Over the course of the proceedings, attorneys billing upwards of $2,600 an hour veered off topic to share their Claire’s stories.”