Letitia James’s problems aren’t just legal
Letitia James built her reputation by prosecuting others. Now she’s the one under indictment. But her troubles aren’t just legal — they are political, too.
As surprising as it might be, given New York’s history as a blue state, the New York attorney general faces a far greater danger in the political arena than many pundits realize. Even if James beats the federal mortgage fraud charges, she may not survive the next election.
New York last elected a Republican as attorney general in 1994. It undoubtedly remains a blue state. But it isn’t as solidly in the Democrats’ camp as it was just a few years ago. President Trump, for instance, saw bigger electoral gains in the Empire State in 2024 than in any other state. His vote total in New York City was the best for a Republican running for president since George H.W. Bush.
In her most recent election, Letitia James’s margin of victory was comfortable, but it was hardly impressive. She won with approximately 55 percent of the vote. This is down from her first election as attorney general in 2018, when she had been able to garner more than 60 percent of the statewide vote. That is hardly impressive for an incumbent Democratic attorney general in a state with more than twice as many registered Democrats as Republicans.
Since her indictment, New York Democrats have closed ranks around James. Elected Democrats have held rallies to show their support for the attorney general, and James even had her best ever single day of fundraising since the indictment was handed down.
That might seem like a show of political strength, but will it last? New York Democrats are notoriously fratricidal. Both of James’s 2026 running mates, Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) and Comptroller Tom DiNapoli (D), already face primary opponents — two in DiNapoli's case. If it looks like James will be convicted of mortgage fraud, it’s hard to imagine an ambitious, opportunistic Democrat not jumping into a primary against the incumbent attorney general.
The biggest contest on the 2025 ballot in the Empire State is the race for New York City mayor. Regardless of who becomes the new occupant of Gracie Mansion, it’s likely to be a political detriment to Letitia James’ reelection prospects.
James had originally endorsed the mayoral candidacy of New York City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams. But before the outcome of the Democratic mayoral primary had been finalized, James threw her support to socialist State Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani. Since Mamdani’s surprise primary win, James has been more vocal in her support of the lefty hipster’s candidacy than almost any other high-profile elected official in the Empire State. Hochul, for instance, didn’t endorse Mamdani until September. Chuck Schumer, the Senate minority leader and New York’s senior senator, still hasn’t announced his backing of Mamdani.
James’s embrace of the young socialist’s mayoral candidacy is a double-edged sword. Although her support undoubtedly bolsters her already strong credibility with the far left of the New York Democratic Party, it is hard to see how it will help her with the more moderate general electorate in 2026.
If either of the other two major candidates for New York City mayor is victorious, it’s likely to be equally detrimental to James’ reelection. Andrew Cuomo, the former Democratic governor who is now running for mayor as an independent, is a longstanding foe of the attorney general. He continues to blame James for his forced 2021 resignation as governor. Should he be elected mayor tomorrow, it’s a safe bet that he would use his political cache to undermine James’s reelection efforts. And as unlikely as it may be, a win by Republican Curtis Sliwa, would instantly make him a major player in state politics and position him to stymie James’s 2026 campaign.
As her lawyers prepare a defense, most of the media coverage of Letitia James in the months ahead will focus on the attorney general’s legal troubles and the likelihood of her conviction on federal mortgage fraud charges. But James’s political troubles — even in a traditionally Democratic stronghold like New York — may prove to be just as perilous. Legal commentators will speculate on what the jurors in her trial are thinking; political junkies would be wise to keep an eye on what New York voters make of James.
Joe Burns is a partner with the Holtzman Vogel law firm, with a focus on election cases in New York State. He previously served as deputy director of election operations at the New York State Board of Elections.