Trump’s golden opportunity to win over Central Asia
On Nov. 6, the U.S. will host a meeting of the Central Asian governments: Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Founded in 2015, the group, known informally as C5+1, has a goal is to “enhance cooperation ... to advance regional solutions to global challenges.”
This is President Trump’s first meeting with all the leaders, though he did meet the presidents of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan at the United Nations General Assembly session in September. Uzbekistan’s leadership under President Shavkat Mirziyoyev has played a pivotal role in deepening regional cooperation — it borders the other four republics and Afghanistan — while maintaining constructive relations with all the U.S., China and Russia.
Now, with his recent ASEAN meeting in the rearview mirror, Trump will arrive in a good mood, reinforced by some earlier economic diplomacy with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to grease the wheels: the sales of Boeing 787 Dreamliners and Wabtec Corporation locomotives. The president will likely advocate for more contracts with U.S. companies, especially access to critical minerals, but he has some competition from China.
The Belt and Road Initiative is the primary way for China to connect with Central Asia. When outbound investment dipped in 2020-2022, we were told by the experts it was failing to achieve its goals and that China’s officials had wasted a trillion dollars. We appear to have been misinformed.
According to the most recent China Belt and Road Initiative Investment Report 2025, the first half of 2025 saw the highest engagement for any six-month period ever, with $66 billion in construction contracts and $57 billion in investments. Total engagement since the program started in 2013 now totals $1.3 trillion.
Of that record engagement, $39 billion went to Africa and $25 billion went to Central Asia. That’s pretty stunning on a per capita basis, as Africa’s population is about 1.5 billion and Central Asia’s is only about 84 million.
In fact, the Belt and Road Initiative has set new records in oil and gas, coal, green energy, metals and mining, and technology and manufacturing. Importantly, investments “were driven by private sector companies,” not state-owned enterprises.
The presidents of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan have invited Trump to visit the region and may press him again to do so. If Trump accepts, he will probably bring an entourage of U.S. businessmen and investors, looking to build on the momentum of the Boeing and Wabtec contracts. It’s about time an American president visited the region, too. Russia’s Vladimir Putin has already made 77 visits, and China’s Xi Jinping has made 15.
The republics are receptive to American investment and trade. Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan are members of the World Trade Organization; neutral Turkmenistan is an observer, and Uzbekistan is completing the accession process. In October, Uzbekistan successfully concluded negotiations with 27 European Union member states on market access, concessions on export and import duties, and services — a major milestone.
Trump can promote trade between the U.S. and Central Asia by pushing Congress to repeal the Jackson-Vanik Amendment, a Cold War relic that stands in the way of permanent normal trade relations. Central Asia will also welcome educational and cultural exchanges, as well as technical assistance with water resources management. The region is facing a chronic water shortage by 2028.
Of course, while the former Soviet republics are friendly to the U.S., they are also ready to cooperate with neighboring Russia and China; hopefully Washington has the political maturity to grasp that. The republics are also working with the Taliban-led government in Afghanistan and see the Islamic emirate as an investment opportunity and as a host of transport links to Asia. Likewise with Iran, which hosts seaports at Bandar Abbas and Chabahar, and a market of more than 90 million people.
Nightingale Intelligence reports that the border dispute between Afghanistan and Pakistan disrupted trade flows and has redirected Afghan trade away from Pakistan to Iran, Central Asia and Russia. The border violence will slow Central Asia’s hopes for the Trans-Afghan railway, connecting Uzbekistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan, which started construction in 2025.
The question for Central Asia is, will the U.S. stanch the new trade flows as part of its “maximum pressure” campaign against the Islamic Republic? Trump has threatened some members with 100 percent tariffs if he thinks they are undermining the U.S. dollar, but Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are Partner Countries. Will they suffer penalties as a result?
The republics should also resist adding and abetting Trump’s desire to retake Bagram Airfield. In the wake of the 9/11 attacks, Uzbekistan allowed the U.S. to use its territory from 2001 to 2005 to mount punitive operations against al-Qaeda and the Taliban, but those days are over. Central Asia sees Afghanistan as a country to be engaged, not shunned or attacked.
Trump’s meeting represents an incredible opportunity for partnership and trade. It can be a win-win for all parties — if the U.S. exercises the requisite patience.
James Durso, a regular commentator on foreign policy and national security matters, served in the U.S. Navy for 20 years and has worked in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Iraq.