Democrats win big in first election of new Trump era

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In today's issue:

▪ Dems sweep in key VA, NJ elections

▪ Trump tariff policy at Supreme Court

▪ Preparations begin to honor Dick Cheney

▪ Rubio to brief on boat strikes

Democrats pulled off a romp of their Republican opponents in winning all key races on Tuesday night in the first major election of President Trump's second term.

The victories come one year before the 2026 midterms and are already giving the Democratic Party a shot in the arm following its crushing losses to Trump and the GOP last year.

Democrats won up and down the ballot in Virginia, clinched a second gubernatorial race in New Jersey with a massive double-digit margin, saw their redistricting ballot measure sail to victory in California and ousted two Republicans in Georgia in statewide races.

Progressives also won a big victory with democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani easily clinching the New York City mayoral race, defeating Andrew Cuomo for a second time. The former New York governor ran as an independent after Mamdani defeated him in the Democratic primary earlier this year.

The White House poked at Mamdani in a post on social platform X on Tuesday night, posting a styled poster declaring "Trump is your president."

Tuesday's results are objectively a reason for hope for Democrats, though how much can be extrapolated for elections a year from now is debatable. The major elections only took place in a few places, and the turnout was much lower than it will be next year.

Still, Democrats swept the board and largely outperformed polls, building back key parts of the coalition they had lost in 2024.

Democrats scored a quick and unsurprising victory in Virginia as former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) defeated GOP Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears to win the gubernatorial race. Spanberger is set to become the commonwealth’s first female governor.

Spanberger had consistently led in polling throughout the campaign, but she finished better than polling suggested. She was ahead by a whopping 15 points with 95 percent of the vote counted.

Virginia state Sen. Ghazala Hashmi (D) also comfortably won the lieutenant governor’s race over Republican John Reid.

But perhaps the biggest surprise of the night came in the state’s attorney general race, as Democrat Jay Jones ousted incumbent Virginia Attorney General Jason Miyares (R), giving Democrats a clean sweep of the statewide races.

Jones’s campaign had been rocked over the past month by the revelation that he sent texts in 2022 wishing for political violence against a GOP political opponent and his family. Jones apologized for the texts, but Republicans in Virginia and throughout the country hammered him for weeks. Democrats rebuffed calls to push for him to drop out.

Jones won by the narrowest margin of any of the Democrats, but he’s still on track to win by a comfortable 6.5 points, an upset for Republicans whose hopes started to rise after polls showed Miyares taking a lead in the race after the Democrats' texts were revealed.

Meanwhile, Republicans had an objectively disappointing night in New Jersey.

The GOP had optimism their gubernatorial nominee, Jack Ciattarelli, could be poised to pull off an upset win against Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D). Ciattarelli outperformed polls four years ago to come just 3 points away from upsetting New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy's (D) reelection bid.

After Trump lost the state by only 6 points in the presidential race last year, Republicans were bullish they could get an upset with a well-known and decently likeable candidate in Ciattarelli, who focused on local issues.

Ciattarelli did run as a much closer ally of Trump than he did in 2021, a possible vulnerability given the president’s unpopularity in the state, but polls widely indicated it would be a close race.

Instead, Sherrill clinched a major double-digit victory. She made significant inroads throughout the state, seemingly flipping key bellwether regions like Gloucester and Atlantic counties that voted for Ciattarelli in 2021.

If Ciattarelli had outperformed the polls to the extent he did four years ago, he would have won. But it was the Democrat who outperformed this time, fending off GOP attempts to build on their recent gains.

Democrats also coasted to easy victories in the retention elections for three members of the Pennsylvania Supreme Court, ensuring a liberal majority is preserved.

▪ The Hill: What Sherrill’s win could mean for the midterms.

▪ The Hill: Takeaways from Dems’ sweep in Virginia.

While the result was among the least surprising, some of the biggest enthusiasm on the left centered around Mamdani's win in New York.

Mamdani completed his rise from a little-known state Assembly member to mayor-elect of the country’s largest city and is set to make history as New York City’s first Muslim mayor. That path began when he pulled off a stunning upset of Cuomo in the Democratic primary in June.

The victory has energized progressives who rallied around his platform focused on affordability in a city full of residents facing an extraordinarily high cost of living. Still, critics have questioned how much of a mandate Mamdani can claim, particularly given his ambitious agenda.

As of the latest vote count, Mamdani is just ahead of a majority of the vote, while Cuomo trails by about 9 points. Republican Curtis Sliwa took 7 percent of the vote. In one of the most heavily Democratic cities in the country, almost half of all voters didn’t vote for the Democratic nominee.

That means Mamdani will have work to do to win over many who seemingly remain skeptical of his agenda. 

Mamdani and Trump traded jabs often throughout the campaign, with the president calling Mamdani a "communist" and threatening to cut off financial support to the city if he's elected.

The New York Post leaned into the attacks on Mamdani following his win, running a front page dubbing the city "The Red Apple," a reference to the color often associated with communism.

Mamdani referenced Trump a few times in his victory speech, directly addressing him.

"So hear me, President Trump, when I say this: To get to any of us, you will have to get through all of us," he said.

▪ The Hill: Reasons why Mamdani defeated Cuomo.

▪ The Hill: Mamdani’s triumph ratchets up battle within Democratic Party.

▪ The Hill: Dems win key special elections in Georgia.

TRUMP DISMISSES RESULTS: President Trump dismissed the election results on Tuesday night as key race alerts poured in, with the president posting a comment he attributed to "pollsters" arguing that the GOP underperformed because his name was not on the ballot and due to the ongoing government shutdown.

"'TRUMP WASN’T ON THE BALLOT, AND SHUTDOWN, WERE THE TWO REASONS THAT REPUBLICANS LOST ELECTIONS TONIGHT,' according to Pollsters," Trump posted on Truth Social.

Trump later reiterated his calls for Republicans to pass a wide range of measures to end the shutdown and revise the rules around elections over his unsubstantiated allegations that the current rules benefit Democrats and allow fraud to occur.

"REPUBLICANS, TERMINATE THE FILIBUSTER! GET BACK TO PASSING LEGISLATION AND VOTER REFORM!" he said in one Truth Social post.

"Pass Voter Reform, Voter ID, No Mail-In Ballots. Save our Supreme Court from 'Packing,' No Two State addition, etc. TERMINATE THE FILIBUSTER!!!" he said in another post.

Trump's calls to eliminate the filibuster have been met with a cool response from Republican congressional leaders, who have been long opposed to removing the procedural measure.

FOCUS SHIFTS TO SHUTDOWN: The election results will also raise questions for what it may mean for the government shutdown, which is officially the longest in history, hitting its 36th day on Wednesday.

Some momentum has been building to finally bring an end to the shutdown after weeks of little to no progress, but a lot of work remains.

The House-passed continuing resolution (CR) failed to advance in the Senate for the 14th time on Tuesday, continuing the impasse in place since the start of October.

The Hill’s Mike Lillis and Emily Brooks report how a perfect storm of partisan politics coalesced to produce the shutdown.

A group of moderate Democrats is continuing to work toward reaching a deal either this week or next, but they’re getting strong pushback from some other members, The Hill’s Alexander Bolton reports.

There had been some hope ahead of Election Day that it could mark a turning point in finally ending the impasse, and the results could give Democrats the victory they’re looking for.

Meanwhile, GOP leaders are working through their own internal divisions about how long the next stopgap funding measure should last. The bill that the House passed, which the Senate has been voting on, only lasts until Nov. 21, giving lawmakers little time to pass a new funding bill.

The Hill’s Al Weaver reports that some are looking at a stopgap that runs through mid-December, while others want it to last until January.

3 Things to Know Today

1. President Trump is hosting Republican senators for breakfast at the White House this morning before traveling to Florida for an economic conference.

2. Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) announced he won’t run for California governor next year, passing on entering a crowded field. Former Rep. Katie Porter (D-Calif.) has led in polls but faced scrutiny over multiple unflattering videos last month.

3. Trump has once again nominated astronaut and entrepreneur Jared Isaacman to head NASA, months after withdrawing his nomination to lead the agency. Isaacman is a close ally of Elon Musk, who has recently pushed to repair his relationship with Trump.

Leading the Day

TARIFF POLICY AT SCOTUS: Trump’s tariff policy will be tested Wednesday when the Supreme Court hears a challenge to the wide-ranging authority that he has asserted to impose taxes on products from countries around the world.

The Hill’s Ella Lee and Zach Schonfeld report that this marks the first time the court will weigh a key element of Trump’s second-term agenda on its merits.

Trump has argued his authority to enact tariffs stems from the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which allows the president to “regulate” imports in response to certain emergencies, Schonfeld and Lee report. But small businesses and Democratic-led states that sued over Trump’s policy will argue that Congress didn’t intend the regulations to include tariffs when it passed the law in 1977.

Trump had hinted that he was considering attending the hearing, which would have made him the first president to attend Supreme Court oral arguments, but he said on Sunday that he didn’t want to “distract” from the case’s importance. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he would attend the arguments.

The importance of the case and what it means for a central piece of his presidency has not been lost on Trump.

“Tomorrow’s United States Supreme Court case is, literally, LIFE OR DEATH for our Country. With a Victory, we have tremendous, but fair, Financial and National Security. Without it, we are virtually defenseless against other Countries who have, for years, taken advantage of us,” Trump said in a Truth Social post.

No president before Trump has attempted to invoke IEEPA to impose tariffs, but the court’s decision might depend on how it views a 50-year-old appellate decision dating back to the Nixon administration.

Former President Richard Nixon imposed a 10 percent temporary tariff in 1971 by pointing to an almost identical provision in IEEPA’s predecessor law. An appeals court upheld Nixon’s action.

But even if the court finds that the law permits the president to impose tariffs, it can still only happen in cases of emergencies. Trump has pointed to two purported emergencies — the flow of fentanyl from Mexico, Canada and China, and trade deficits with countries around the world.

Those challenging Trump’s authority will argue that neither constitutes an emergency.

How the justices respond to the arguments could signal how they may rule and what the future could hold for Trump’s push to expand executive authority.

▪ Bloomberg: Fate of tariffs depend on Trump’s Supreme Court picks.

▪ Politico: The White House’s plan B on tariffs.

CHENEY FUNERAL: Preparations have begun to honor former Vice President Dick Cheney following his death Monday night at age 84.

Cheney, who served under President George W. Bush from 2001 to 2009 and exerted significant power overseeing the war in Iraq and the administration’s broader war on terror following the 9/11 attacks, died from complications of pneumonia and cardiac and vascular diseases.

The White House lowered the U.S. flag to half-staff in Cheney’s honor, as is customary for the passing of presidents and vice presidents, but Trump hasn’t yet made a public statement about his death.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) told reporters on Tuesday that Republican leadership staff members are reviewing the “protocol” surrounding the possibility of Cheney lying in state in the Capitol Rotunda.

The last person to lie in state in the Capitol, an honor usually reserved for former presidents, was former President Jimmy Carter, who died last December. The last former vice president who never served as president to lie in state at the Capitol was former Vice President Hubert Humphrey, who died in 1978. Humphrey served as Senate majority whip during his time representing Minnesota in the chamber. Longtime members of Congress have also often lain in state.

Cheney's funeral is likely to attract many leaders and mourners, and those attending — or absent — will be of particular focus. Presidents traditionally attend funerals for former top leaders who die during their administration, but Cheney and Trump had a frosty relationship.

Trump regularly slammed the Bush administration over its handling of the Iraq War during his first run for president in 2016. Cheney had become increasingly vocal in critiquing Trump following the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot.

Trump and Cheney’s daughter, former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.), particularly became rivals as she joined the congressional committee investigating the attack and Trump’s efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election.

Trump endorsed a primary challenger to Liz Cheney in 2022, successfully helping oust her from office. Dick and Liz Cheney notably endorsed former Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election over Trump, despite being lifelong Republicans.

Former Arizona Sen. John McCain (R), another Trump critic, requested that the president not attend his funeral ahead of his death in 2018. Trump obliged.

▪ The Hill: Cheney’s passing casts spotlight on shifts within GOP.

RUBIO VENEZUELA BRIEFING: Secretary of State Marco Rubio will brief a bipartisan group of lawmakers on Wednesday about the Trump administration’s repeated strikes against boats that it alleges were trying to smuggle drugs into the U.S.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said during a press briefing that the meeting will take place on Capitol Hill for the “Gang of 12,” made up of both Democrats and Republicans.

The briefing will come as members of both parties have expressed frustration with a lack of details and legal rationale for the series of strikes the administration has conducted on boats in the Caribbean and East Pacific, killing dozens.

They said officials who have met with them for past briefings haven’t pointed to a clear legal basis granting the administration the authority to conduct the strikes and haven’t provided clear evidence that the boats were smuggling drugs.

The strikes have come as tensions have been rising between the U.S. and Venezuela, with Trump accusing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro of contributing to the smuggling of fentanyl into the U.S., which Maduro denies. The Pentagon has deployed the world’s largest aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford, and its carrier air wing to the Caribbean.

The Miami Herald reported last week that the administration is poised to conduct military strikes inside Venezuela, which officials denied.

Trump said during an interview on “60 Minutes” that he doesn’t think the U.S. will go to war with Venezuela but suggested Maduro’s days in power may be numbered.

▪ The Washington Post: Trump admin tells Congress war law doesn’t apply to strikes.

▪ CNN: A timeline of the U.S. boat strikes.

SCOTT REBUKES MACE: Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) pushed back against Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) after she reportedly referenced the senator during a heated exchange at Charleston International Airport over her security protocols.

“For reasons that are unclear, Rep. Nancy Mace invoked my name during and in the aftermath of her situation at the Charleston International Airport. So let me be clear on a number of points. I have used that airport since long before I was ever in Congress and every interaction I have had – without exception – has been positive,” Scott wrote in a Tuesday post on Facebook.

Mace lambasted Charleston International Airport security during an allegedly profanity-laced rant, according to a police report. The congresswoman allegedly called the officers “f---ing incompetent” and reportedly referenced Scott’s security protocols.

“Those who know me know that I do not use profanity – in public or private. It is never acceptable to berate police officers, airport staff, and TSA agents who are simply doing their jobs, nor is it becoming of a Member of Congress to use such vulgar language when dealing with constituents,” he wrote in the Facebook post.

The incident came as Mace runs for the Republican nomination for governor of South Carolina next year.

UPS PLANE CRASH: A UPS plane carrying three crew members crashed in Louisville, Ky., shortly after taking off Tuesday, killing at least seven people.

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (D) said at least 11 people were injured, including some who had “significant injuries.”

A spokesperson for the Federal Aviation Administration told Nexstar that UPS Flight 2976 took off from Louisville Muhammad Ali International Airport and crashed around 5:15 p.m. The flight was heading for Honolulu.

The plane, containing 220,000 pounds of jet fuel, burst into flames and sent a large cloud of black smoke extending into the sky.

Officials said they were waiting to release additional information about the victims until the next of kin could be notified.

When and Where

The president will deliver remarks at a breakfast with Republican senators at the White House at 8:30 a.m. He will travel to Miami for an economic conference in the afternoon before returning to Washington just past 5 p.m.

The Senate will meet at 10 a.m.

The House will not convene today.

Zoom In

GATES DEFENDS CLIMATE CHANGE MEMO: Billionaire philanthropist Bill Gates defended the controversial memo he released last week calling for a refocus on the climate change debate to emphasize human suffering rather than rising temperatures.

Gates argued in the memo that climate change is a serious problem facing the world but won’t bring the end of civilization. He said climate change will have significant consequences, particularly for those in poor countries, but people will be able to live and “thrive” in most places for the “foreseeable future.”

He said human welfare needs to be at the center of climate strategies, including the improvement of agriculture and health in poor countries, and pushed back against funding cuts for health and development, which he said helps people stay resilient in the face of climate change.

Gates told Axios in an interview that he stands by the memo and is happy “people are listening.” He said conveying a nuanced position these days is difficult.

The memo received significant backlash from various sides, and some conservatives pointed to it as supporting their argument that fears over climate change have been overblown.

“I (WE!) just won the War on the Climate Change Hoax. Bill Gates has finally admitted that he was completely WRONG on the issue. It took courage to do so, and for that we are all grateful,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social last week.

But Gates called Trump’s take a “gigantic misreading” of the memo, noting that his own personal funding to address climate change and public health have increased.

Gates also pushed back on scientists who argued he was creating a false dichotomy between addressing poverty and climate change.

“If you think climate is not important, you won’t agree with the memo. If you think climate is the only cause and apocalyptic, you won’t agree with the memo,” Gates told reporters, according to The Associated Press. “It’s kind of this pragmatic view of somebody who’s, you know, trying to maximize the money and the innovation that goes to help in these poor countries.”

▪ The Associated Press: United Nations report finds some progress on climate efforts, but they still fall short.

▪ The Hill: Trump won’t send top representatives to UN climate summit.

AUTO COMPANIES ROLL BACK EV INVESTMENT: Automakers have been pulling back on their investment in electric vehicles (EV) in recent weeks, laying off workers in several states.

The Hill’s Rachel Frazin reports that the moves come after Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which repealed incentives for consumers to buy electric cars.

General Motors (GM) is set to lay off 1,200 workers from its Detroit plant and 550 from its Ultium Cells plant in Ohio. Hundreds more are being temporarily laid off from the Ohio plant and an Ultium factory in Tennessee.

EV maker Rivian told its staff last month that it would lay off 4.5 percent of its workforce, reportedly equal to more than 600 jobs.

A tax credit that Trump’s tax and spending bill eliminated had helped bring EV prices down by as much as $7,500, but it expired in September.

“With the evolving regulatory framework and the end of federal consumer incentives, it is now clear that near-term EV adoption will be lower than planned,” a letter from GM CEO Mary Barra to investors said last month ahead of the layoff announcement.

Experts told Frazin that the end of the tax credit along with Trump’s tariffs have been significant in reducing demand for EVs.

“If you’re making the multi-decade commitments that you do when you’re investing in auto and battery plants, you have to think harder about your ability to export stuff from America,” said Mike Madowitz, principal economist at the Roosevelt Institute.

▪ CNBC: Ford, Hyundai report large declines in October EV sales.

Elsewhere

OTHER ELECTION RESULTS: Outside of the big-ticket races that caught national attention, elections took place in many cities and states throughout the country Tuesday, with some big names on the ballot.

One of those races that ultimately wasn’t competitive but still was an usually interesting race was the Cincinnati mayoral election, featuring Vice President Vance’s half-brother, Cory Bowman. 

Bowman, a Republican, lost overwhelmingly to incumbent Democratic Mayor Aftab Pureval, but some have speculated this may be just the beginning of Bowman’s political career.

In a race that drew some comparisons to the New York City mayoral race, Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey (D) appears set for a faceoff against Minnesota state Sen. Omar Fateh (D), a democratic socialist. The race has been seen as another proxy battle between the wings of the Democratic Party.

No candidate in the crowded field received a majority of the vote, so the election will go to rounds of ranked-choice tabulation to determine the winner.

An attempt at a political comeback is continuing as former New Jersey Gov. Jim McGreevey (D) advanced to a runoff election against Jersey City Councilor James Solomon to become mayor of the city. McGreevey was elected governor more than 20 years ago but resigned after a scandal in which he said he engaged in a sexual affair with a male staffer.

McGreevey also came out as gay at that time, making him the first openly gay governor of a state in the country. Now he’s trying to get back into politics.

Another candidate who has seemingly overcome controversy is Atlantic City Mayor Marty Small Sr., who declared victory in winning a second full term. Small is currently under criminal indictment accusing him of physically abusing his daughter and witness tampering.

Small has pleaded not guilty and fended off a serious primary challenge in June before seemingly defeating his Republican opponent.

BALLOT MEASURES: Several left-leaning ballot measures also succeeded in various states other than California.

Maine voters approved a measure to enact a red flag law, joining about 20 other states in establishing one. Red flag laws allow people to petition a court to take away an individual's firearms if they believe they might pose a danger to themselves or others.

The measure was proposed following a mass shooting that took place in the state in 2023, claiming 18 lives.

Maine simultaneously rejected another ballot measure that would have required presenting a photo ID to vote and added restrictions on absentee voting.

Colorado voters approved a measure to increase taxes on its wealthiest residents to help pay for free school lunches for students.

Meanwhile, Texas approved a pair of ballot measures touted by conservatives. Voters backed one measure to declare that voters must be U.S. citizens to vote in state elections and another to assert parents' rights to make decisions for their children.

The Constitution prohibits non-citizen voting in federal elections but doesn't address state elections, leading a number of right-leaning states to adopt laws banning non-citizen voting in recent years.

Opinion

Today’s election is setting the stage for 2026, writes former Democratic National Committee Chair Donna Brazile in The Hill.

Let the natural experiment in Democratic governance begin, writes The Washington Post opinion columnist Adam Lashinsky.

The Closer

And finally … The New York City Council has a new member-elect with quite an attention-grabbing name that “Saturday Night Live” made clear bears no relation to Harvey Weinstein or Jeffrey Epstein.

New York State Assembly member Harvey Epstein easily won the election to serve on the council representing the city’s 2nd District, a solidly Democratic-leaning district based in Manhattan. He prevailed in a June primary against several other opponents, including former Rep. Anthony Weiner (D-N.Y.), who unsuccessfully sought another political comeback.

“SNL” ran a sketch last November spoofing Harvey Epstein, played by John Mulaney, in which Epstein attempted to explain to voters that he is neither Harvey Weinstein nor Jeffrey Epstein, nor a combination of the two.