Key reasons for Democrats to be hopeful after the election — and cautious

Democrats got a much-needed morale boost on Tuesday when elections across the nation went their way.

A party that has been divided and discontented since President Trump won his second term a year ago had its first taste of a comeback.

The biggest national story was the victory of 34-year-old democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani (D) in the New York City mayoral race. 

Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.) and former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) also strolled to easy victories in gubernatorial contests in their respective states, while California easily passed a proposal tied to redistricting that had been pushed by Gov. Gavin Newsom (D).

Still, that doesn’t mean Democrats are on a glide path to victory in next year’s midterms — or that they’re about to stymie Trump.

Here are five brief reasons for Democratic optimism — and five reasons for caution.

The good news for Democrats

They thumped the GOP

The margins by which Democratic candidates won were significant — as were some triumphs in lower-profile races.

As Election Day dawned there was real fear in Democratic circles that Sherrill could lose in New Jersey to her Republican opponent Jack Ciattarelli.

In the end, she won by 13 points. In Virginia, Spanberger cantered to victory by almost 15 points.

Races for the Public Service Commission in Georgia don’t exactly command national headlines, but Democrats flipped two seats there as well, suggesting a rising blue tide even in competitive states.

Mamdani stirred real excitement

The human drama was most intense in New York City, where Mamdani vanquished former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo for the second time in five months. Mamdani beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary in June, only for the former governor to run as an independent.

Mamdani did it in part by seizing the public imagination. Eye-catching promises like free child care for all children aged 5 or younger resonated in a city where many residents struggle to make ends meet.

Mamdani’s appeal was at its most intense with younger voters, whose high turnout helped him win more than 1 million votes. It was the highest total for any mayoral candidate in decades.

Affordability is on voters’ minds

There are numerous differences between the brand of politics practiced by Mamdani and the more centrist approaches of Sherrill and Spanberger.

But one key piece of connective tissue was the issue of affordability.

Democratic campaigns centered on the topic had strong appeal from the Bronx to Blacksburg, Va.

Latinos may be coming back

During the Trump era, Republicans have made inroads with Latino voters — much to Democrats’ chagrin.

There were signs on Tuesday that the pattern may have gone into reverse.

Spanberger and Sherrill both won Latino voters by big margins of around 2-to-1.

Whether that was caused by a reaction against Trump’s immigration policies, disappointment with the economy or some combination of the two, it’s an encouraging sign for Democrats.

Trump’s unpopularity is a problem for the GOP

Trump’s ability to dominate the political narrative sometimes obscures the fact that he is markedly unpopular.

The polling average maintained by Decision Desk HQ shows him underwater by 11 points, with roughly 54 percent of Americans disapproving of his performance and just 43 percent approving. 

This clearly mattered on Tuesday, even with the president not on the ballot.

The bad news for Democrats

The big results were in blue states

Many Republicans reacted with a shoulder shrug to Tuesday’s electoral setbacks. No surprise, they said.

All the biggest contests were in blue states or cities. Whether Mamdani or Cuomo won in New York City, for example, wasn’t going to change the fact that registered Democrats outnumber Republicans there by about 6-to-1.

There is some risk of Democrats getting carried away by winning contests they should expect to win under almost any circumstances.

Off-year elections are odd

The electorate that tends to show up for off-year elections doesn’t necessarily predict what might happen across the nation in midterms — and certainly not in a presidential year.

In addition, Virginia has a strong habit of electing a governor from the party that has lost the White House the previous year.

It’s another factor arguing against extrapolating too much from Tuesday’s victories.

The New York result will stir new divisions

Mamdani’s win was at least in part a rebuke to a Democratic Party establishment that he assailed as too weak and timid — a point he made even in his victory speech.

Centrists in the party are fighting against the left, arguing that the two gubernatorial victors, both moderates, provide a better model to follow than the mayor-elect.

One way or another, there are a lot of internal battles to come, especially as potential 2028 presidential contenders begin jockeying for position.

They still can’t do much to stop Trump

For all the Democratic celebrations on Tuesday, there has been no immediate change to the math in Washington, nor to the fact that Trump has a tight grip on the Republican majorities in both the Senate and the House.

However deep the Democratic and liberal outrage at what Trump is doing, they still don’t really have the levers to stop him, or even slow him down.

A year is a long time in politics

A cliché because it’s true.

All kinds of circumstances, notably on the economy, could be very different as voters cast their ballots in the midterms. The government shutdown will likely be a distant memory. News stories that aren’t on anyone’s radar right now could become massive issues.

None of that is guaranteed to help Republicans, of course. Things could move in the opposite direction, favoring Democrats even more strongly.

But it’s at least a reminder that predictions made about elections one year out are almost sure to be wrong.