Premier League into the final countdown with title, top four and relegation all in balance as final stretch starts
FOR Premier League clubs, the break is over… and just like that, we’ve reached the final push.
There will be no more international interruptions, only a straight shot to triumph or tears, glory or grief.
For many teams there are just ten matches to go.
And in a remarkable turn of events every, single Premier League club has something to play for.
The race for the title, realistically, is down to two clubs.
Manchester United were in the running for roughly a week and now it’s a straight fight between Arsenal and Manchester City.
And while the race for the title reaches its epic conclusion, the battle for the top four couldn’t be hotter.
United and Tottenham currently occupy third and fourth – but Spurs have played TWO more games than fifth-placed Newcastle, with just a two-point cushion.
Erratic Liverpool still harbour hopes of snatching a Champions League spot – just five points back from the Magpies.
Brighton are level with the Reds on 42 points, but have a game in hand.
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Brentford also have 42 points, but have played two more than the Seagulls – and one more than the Reds.
Fulham are just three points further back, with Chelsea four off the pace – level with Aston Villa.
That’s a lot of information, so let’s get down to brass tacks…
Incredibly just 11 points separate 11th-placed Villa and fourth-placed Tottenham – with EVERY club in that range having at least on game in hand on Spurs.
Simply put, the race for the European spots has NEVER been so open.
So while nearly a dozen clubs fight for a spot in one of Europe’s three competitions, the remaining nine clubs are locked in a tight relegation fight.
Crystal Palace currently sit 12th on 27 points.
Southampton are bottom as things stand on 23 points.
Incredibly, just FOUR points separate the bottom nine teams.
The push for Europe may be a close-run sprint to the finish line, but the race to avoid relegation is resembling something of a Royal Rumble.
Palace, Wolves, Leeds, Everton, Nottingham Forest, Leicester, West Ham, Bournemouth and Saints are all scrapping for survival.
All teams have endured the lowest of lows and brief spurts of good form.
Now it’s all about who can do it consistently and grind out the key wins – or even draws – when it matters.
Without further ado, let’s dive into our three separate races, starting with…
THE TITLE RACE
Arsenal vs Manchester City. The young story-of-the-season squad vs the seasoned veterans of title-winning.
Let’s start from the beginning…
The Gunners lead the race by eight points.
Man City have a game in hand. Pep Guardiola’s men win that, and they cut that gap to just five points.
Then, both teams will have ten matches left – or 30 points to play for, if you prefer.
That is a lot of points still up for grabs and City are masters of the last-gasp, title-clinching goal.
Think Sergio Aguero in 2011-12 or, much more recently, the Ilkay Gundogan-inspired, three-goals-in-five-minutes turnaround against Aston Villa last season.
For Arsenal and comparatively novice boss Mikel Arteta – one of Pep’s blossoming graduates – this is uncharted territory.
But they’ve fought through injury setbacks and apparent dips in form to STILL lead the race.
Can they do it? Can they end that 19-year drought dating back to the Invincibles? Let’s check the two club’s run-ins…
Both teams have some tough fixtures still to play.
Both play Liverpool. Both play Chelsea. Both play high-flying Brighton.
Both also face a handful of teams fighting for their Premier League status.
And, of course, Arsenal and Man City will play each other in arguably the biggest six-pointer of the season.
On April 26, the Gunners face the daunting trip up to the Etihad in a game that could all-but seal the title or spark a terminal collapse.
City have already beaten Arsenal once this season in their 3-1 win at the Emirates in February.
Arteta will hope his side have a nice cushion going into that match, just in case.
After all, we all know how strongly City tend to end the season.
THE RACE FOR EUROPE
So this is where things get a little bit complicated.
The top four will qualify for the Champions League group stage.
Fifth place qualify for the Europa League group stage – along with the winners of the FA Cup.
So if a club finishes in the top five AND wins the FA Cup, there will be a sixth place allocated to the next-highest-ranked Premier League team for the Europa League.
And then there’s the winners of the Carabao Cup, who earn a spot in the Europa Conference League play-offs.
Man Utd have already won the League Cup but are likely to finish in the European places which means ANOTHER spot should open up, potentially allowing for the top seven to qualify for continental football.
Did you follow all that? Good, let’s crack on.
So let’s assume Arsenal and City have first and second wrapped up – that leaves two Champions League spots up for grabs.
Currently, Man Utd and Spurs are in third and fourth – but as earlier touched upon, Tottenham have played one or two extra matches.
Let’s assume each team wins their game(s) in hand…
In that scenario, the North Londoners would drop to SIXTH – with Newcastle going four points above them and Brighton two points above them.
Liverpool would also just be one point further back in seventh.
Eighth and 11th are separated by just four points, too – with Chelsea hoping to launch a late charge from tenth.
But Brighton, Fulham and Aston Villa will be hoping to force their way into the conversation.
Simply put, it’s utter carnage between third and 11th, with nine teams fighting for five remaining spots.
THE RELEGATION SCRAP
This is less complicated. You all know the drill: Bottom three go down. Simple.
Southampton, Bournemouth and West Ham currently sit in the dreaded drop zone.
But a win for the Hammers in their game in hand would see them rocket from 18th to 12th.
Just four points separate current 12-placed side Crystal Palace and last-placed Southampton.
Between them, in descending order, are Wolves, Leeds, Everton, Forest, Leicester, West Ham and Bournemouth.
Let’s be perfectly honest… ANY of those teams could go down at this stage.
Managers will be desperate for their veterans to step up and guide them to safety before a big summer reset.
But three must go down. And the Premier League is anything but predictable…