Why Iran’s leaders are cracking down hard on their own population

In his first public appearance at a religious event after a 23-day absence – likely due to fear of airstrikes – Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei made a calculated effort to present himself as a patriotic leader. Meanwhile, just one day after the ceasefire was declared, Iran’s security and law enforcement forces launched a new campaign – this time, against their own people. They set up checkpoints across the country and began widespread arrests, particularly targeting youth, often simply for having anti-regime content on their mobile phones.

Enforced disappearances of prisoners and ordinary citizens have continued, as have the arrests of foreign and dual nationals – especially Europeans and French citizens. These acts appear aimed at preventing the reactivation of the U.N. “snapback” sanctions. Simultaneously, the regime has escalated executions to an unprecedented level, aiming to stifle any and all domestic dissent.

The targeted elimination of several senior intelligence and IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) commanders has shattered the regime’s image of control, which heavily depended on its intelligence apparatus. A growing atmosphere of distrust and insecurity has spread within the regime, prompting significant defections. In response, the Supreme Leader has turned to hollow displays of strength in an effort to suppress a potential uprising.

The purpose behind the crackdowns

In the early 1980s, a similarly vulnerable regime sought to suppress opposition – particularly members of the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI/MEK) – through widespread checkpoints and mass arrests. Today, the same strategy is being used to identify and detain members of the MEK-affiliated Resistance Units, which are now active throughout the country.

These units have become a nightmare for the regime. While state media entities avoid mentioning them, the regime knows its most serious threat comes not from foreign powers, but from within – namely, these Resistance Units. They have the potential to mobilize a powerful street force capable of confronting the Revolutionary Guards and security forces.

Escalating internal power struggles

As the regime’s fall becomes more conceivable, internal fractures are widening. Recently, 180 economists, university professors and former officials called for a “paradigm shift” in the Islamic Republic’s governance model, referencing the 12-day conflict with Israel. In stark contrast, the IRGC-affiliated Fars News Agency praised the 1988 massacre of political prisoners – mostly MEK members – as a “successful precedent,” advocating for its repetition to suppress today’s dissent. Simultaneously, calls for the impeachment of newly elected President Masoud Pezeshkian are gaining momentum within parts of the regime.

The third option

The regime understands that war alone will not bring about its collapse. Its only real concern is the potential targeting of Supreme Leader Khamenei’s hideouts in such a conflict. This explains its behind-the-scenes efforts to initiate talks with the United States – possibly via back channels in Norway – to defuse that threat. But retreating from its core policies – from repression to executions or nuclear ambitions – is not an option. Such concessions would signal the start of reform, inevitably triggering demands for basic freedoms and accelerating the regime’s downfall.

The only realistic path to democracy in Iran lies with the organized resistance movement, which has fought the regime for over four decades, weathered two mass slaughter campaigns, and continued its struggle outside the clerical system. Despite relentless repression, the resistance has built a vast network of Resistance Units inside Iran – tasked with exposing regime crimes, mobilizing citizens, directing protests and hitting the regime’s centers of oppression.

Alongside these units, a broad social support base – including families of political victims, former prisoners and various civic actors – actively participates in protest efforts. This network has succeeded in obtaining highly classified intelligence from within the regime. Much of what the world knows today about Iran’s nuclear and terror programs comes from this very source.

Conclusion

Iran’s crisis cannot be solved by foreign military intervention or appeasement. The only sustainable solution is to support the Iranian people and their organized resistance – a path that could actually lead to democracy, equality and enduring peace.