Most energy predictions are wrong – not this one
This article was originally published at The Empowerment Alliance and is re-published here with permission.
ABC News, June 18, 2025: “U.S. oil prices hovered near a five-month high on Wednesday as President Donald Trump weighed direct involvement in support of Israeli strikes on Iran, making it all but certain that gasoline prices would rise for Americans within days, industry analysts told ABC News.”
CNN, June 24, 2025: “Oil prices fell sharply Tuesday, returning to levels last seen before the Iran-Israel conflict, as investors cheered news of a ceasefire, albeit fragile, between the two countries.”
Predictions of skyrocketing oil prices if President Trump decided to bomb Iranian nuclear sites permeated the media. The reality over the course of just six days from before and after the actual bombing was much different.
Forecasts about how world events will shape energy prices and the reality once such events unfold are rarely aligned. Most Americans have grown weary of “experts” foreseeing disaster, predictions which intensify when Donald Trump is sitting in the Oval Office. From energy prices to the overall economy to foreign affairs, “expert” predictions and analysis are routinely much more reflective of political bias than actual industry expertise.
The far-left (formerly mainstream) media revels in rolling out alarmist headlines based on the ruminations of analysts, forecasters and, these days, “influencers.” Scroll the websites of any of the leading mainstream publications and you’ll find the content littered with gloom-and-doom prophecies about Trump administration actions and policies that almost never prove accurate.
What they do achieve is providing fodder for a 24-hour, seven-days-a-week cable news cycle, as roundtables of analysts weigh in on the latest predictions. It’s a round-robin tournament of endless negative chatter based on dissecting the negative chatter that kicked off the latest 24-hour cycle.
As the hot summer months progress, warnings of potential blackouts and an overall strain on the electric grid are once again in the news. Some blackouts have already occurred, and a predictable blame game is well underway, with adherents of the climate cult blaming global warming and rising temperatures instead of identifying the true culprit – compromised power grids.
In reality, the climate doomsayers’ prescription of more solar and wind simply exacerbates the disease. The main reason for grid strain and power failures is an overreliance on “alternatives” that are not up to the task of supplying the demands of an energy-devouring nation – demands that are exponentially increasing with the proliferation of data centers needed to power emerging AI technologies.
One sure way to guarantee power shortages is to follow radical edicts to phase out oil and gas in favor of wind and solar. We started down that road during the Obama and Biden administrations, and the final destination is demonstrably disastrous (see Spain, Portugal and France). Fortunately, the Trump administration has mapped a new course and is attempting a rescue mission, just in the nick of time.
The federal level is not the only place where common sense is making a return. Louisiana recently became the first state in the nation to codify affordable, reliable and clean energy security into law. As Gov. Jeff Landry (R) said when signing House Bill 692, the legislation “sets the stage for an energy renaissance—not only here, but in America. … This bill positions Louisiana as an economic powerhouse, where we can not only join the industrial South that we’ve been missing out on, but we can lead in that industrial South.”
While supporting hundreds of thousands of jobs and providing more transparency to ratepayers, the bill most importantly “ensures equal treatment for all energy sources, contributing to grid reliability and resiliency,” as the governor put it.
In other words, Louisiana has codified the inclusion of traditional energy sources as eligible – even preferred – choices when it comes to governmental decisions about energy projects and usage. No longer will Louisianans be pawns in the “green new deal” scam supported by “experts” whose main goals are more political than science-based.
The “alternatives” con is coming to an end. The government subsidies that supported the rip-off are being phased out. Energy freedom is returning for Americans who rely on affordable and trustworthy energy sources.
Hope is on the rise. Other states are considering legislation similar to the Louisiana model. Ideally, Congress will enact legislation that will make affordable, reliable and clean energy the law of the land and a cornerstone of national security.
There is one prediction that is solidly based in fact and reliably backed by previous experience: Energy prices will remain affordable, power failures will be rare, and freedom from being held hostage by foreign suppliers of energy will be assured if natural gas and other traditional energy sources are allowed to flourish. Let’s insist that our state and federal lawmakers make this prediction come true.
Gary Abernathy is a longtime newspaper editor, reporter and columnist. He was a contributing columnist for the Washington Post from 2017-2023 and a frequent guest analyst across numerous media platforms. He is a contributing columnist for The Empowerment Alliance, which advocates for realistic approaches to energy consumption and environmental conservation. Abernathy’s “TEA Takes” column will be published every Wednesday and delivered to your inbox!