Iran’s crisis is no longer ‘unrest’ – it’s a struggle for power

Iran is no longer facing ordinary protests. What has unfolded in recent months points to a far deeper reality: The Islamic Republic has entered a decisive phase of political crisis, one that cannot be reduced to “sporadic demonstrations” or “social unrest.” The ruling regime is confronting something far more dangerous – a society increasingly ready to challenge the regime’s very survival.

In this context, President Donald Trump recently stated that “regime change” could be the best outcome for a country suffering from deadly unrest. Whether one agrees with Trump or not, his remark reflects an undeniable truth: Iran has reached a point where the question of who rules is no longer just an internal issue. It is rapidly becoming a regional and international problem.

The regime’s massacre failed to restore fear

In January, swift and coordinated actions by Resistance Units and rebellious youth forced Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei into a violent response. The regime’s reaction culminated in a large-scale massacre on Jan. 8 and 9.

But something critical happened: The killings did not silence the population.

Instead of crushing the uprising, repression produced the opposite effect. A new spirit of defiance began spreading across the country. Among Iran’s younger generation and many segments of society, one message has become increasingly common: Fire must be answered with fire.

This shift is significant. It signals that Iranian society is moving into a new stage of resistance – one where fear is being replaced by determination and organized confrontation.

‘Neither shah nor mullahs’: A strategic rejection of dictatorship

A few weeks later, on Feb. 7, tens of thousands of Iranians demonstrated abroad on the anniversary of Iran’s anti-monarchical revolution. Their message was clear: The Iranian people want freedom – not another dictatorship.

The slogan “No to the Shah’s dictatorship, no to the Sheikh’s dictatorship” has now become a strategic political statement. It reflects a deep historical lesson: Iranians do not want their revolution hijacked again, as it was in 1979 when Ayatollah Khomeini seized power and imposed a new form of tyranny.

This is not simply a slogan. It is a rejection of both the ruling clerical regime and the illusion of a monarchist restoration.

A regime surviving only through violence

The killing of several thousand people on Jan. 8 and 9 left little doubt that the regime is no longer capable of surviving through normal political control. It increasingly depends on mass violence to preserve itself – an obvious sign of structural decay and desperation.

Under these conditions, the overthrow of clerical rule is no longer only a domestic demand. It is gradually turning into an international expectation, especially as the regime continues its nuclear ambitions, regional destabilization and security threats.

Iran will not change until the regime changes

Given the ideological nature of the Islamic Republic, it is unrealistic to expect Tehran to voluntarily abandon its missile program or its nuclear ambitions. Genuine retreat on these issues will happen only when the regime itself is fundamentally transformed.

For this reason, meaningful change in Iran can come only from within – through the Iranian people and an organized resistance movement. External pressure may weaken the regime, but it will not remove it. Only internal organized uprising can do that.

Resistance units and the regime’s fear of collapse

Affiliated with the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI/MEK) since 2016, the Resistance Units have become one of the most structured forces confronting the Islamic Republic. By targeting repression centers and striking the regime’s security infrastructure, they are capable of weakening the Revolutionary Guards – the regime’s backbone – and accelerating the process of collapse.

This is precisely why Khamenei has begun speaking publicly of a “coup” against his rule. In reality, such language is an admission of fear: The regime is terrified of the growing reach of organized resistance.

At the same time, the pro-regime Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has been designated as a terrorist organization by the European Union and several other countries. This reflects a growing global recognition of the Guards’ central role in domestic repression, regional destabilization and the export of terrorism.

The regime is now fighting simply to survive. Even the question of succession at the top has become unavoidable, exposing the fragility of the system.

A second battle: Manufacturing a ‘controlled alternative’

Yet while the regime faces a real crisis on the ground, another battle is being waged in parallel: the battle over the “alternative.”

In this environment, the son of the former Shah is being promoted as a leading figure of the Iranian movement. Meanwhile, Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence continues to circulate fake clips and fabricated videos designed to create the impression that Iranians inside the country are chanting slogans in his favor.

Social media videos and comparative documentation suggest that monarchist claims – including the assertion that 250,000 people attended a Munich rally Saturday, Feb. 13 – were vastly inflated.

Veteran German journalist Jürgen Müller wrote on X:

“The Munich gathering was surrounded by a level of press and propaganda promotion on a scale I have never seen before.”

The purpose of such propaganda is clear: to manufacture hollow political alternatives and impose them through spectacle, media amplification and psychological manipulation.

Division as a weapon

The practical outcome of these inflated narratives is not unity against the regime, but division – a result that ultimately benefits Khamenei and the religious fascism ruling Iran. Artificial polarization fuels internal conflict and drains the energy of society, preventing a clear focus on the real struggle.

In other words, these operations do not weaken the regime. They strengthen it.

Conclusion: Iran’s future will be decided inside Iran

Iran stands at a historic turning point. Its future will not be determined by foreign diplomats, outside predictions or media narratives. It will be determined in the real arena of internal confrontation – and by the capacity of organized resistance.

The Islamic Republic will not collapse through external pressure alone. It will fall only when faced with an organized uprising and a resistance capable of dismantling its machinery of repression.

At the same time, the war of narratives and the promotion of artificial alternatives are part of the regime’s survival strategy. Their purpose is to prevent a genuine democratic path from emerging.

Ultimately, what will decide Iran’s future is not imported slogans or staged alternatives, but the real power of the Iranian people and their organized resistance.