How a Hall of Fame Coach Predicted Mitch Trubisky’s Turnaround

People might say they never lost faith that Mitch Trubisky was going to figure things out after such a disappointing start to 2019. However, after watching him in games against New Orleans and L.A., it would be safe to call those people liars. Trubisky was done. He was a bust and it was time to accept it. Sure enough, just a couple weeks later he’s suddenly playing the best football (arguably) of his career. Things certainly change fast in the NFL.

This again leads to a reality about developing quarterbacks that lots of people hate: it takes time. Sure there are some outliers who have success right away, but this is not the norm. On average it takes a bit of time for these kids to figure out the speed and complexity of the pro level. Adam Jahns of The Athletic talked to former Super Bowl-winning head coach Brian Billick about the subject. It was then he brought up an interesting lesson he learned.

A lesson one of the greatest of all-time taught him.

“I put that very question to Bill Walsh and he felt like it was by that 24th, 25th, 26th start, meaning a year and a half, a year and three quarters, depending upon when the starter starts,” Billick said. “If it doesn’t show up by then, then it’s probably not there. It can show up before then like you see in Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson, but if it’s not there by that year and a half, year and three quarters or those number of starts, then that’s going to become a little problematic. What I see with Trubisky is just that. I see the very, very good and then you can see some very bad.”

Mitch Trubisky started to click right around that window

Now the big question for Walsh is did he mean starts in general or starts within an offensive system? The problem with Trubisky was his first 12 career starts as a rookie in 2017 were essentially wasted on Dowell Loggains’ offense. Most felt 2018 under Matt Nagy was basically his actual rookie year. If one were to go by that timeline, then Trubisky hit the window Walsh referred to last month in mid-November. The 24th start was against the Rams in L.A., the 25th against the Giants at Soldier Field, and the 26th against the Lions on Thanksgiving.

It’s fascinating that fans seemed to see the kid bottom out by getting benched in L.A., struggle early against New York but then explode in the second half before delivering a decisive comeback win in Detroit with three touchdown passes. Then for good measure, he put on a show against the Dallas Cowboys the next week, accounting for four touchdowns in a decisive win to get the Bears back above .500.

So does Walsh’s assessment hold true?

Joe Montana had a passer rating of 87.6 through his first 24 starts with the San Francisco 49ers from 1979 to 1981. He happened to hit that window at the start of the playoffs in ’81. The 49ers would run the table and win their first of four Super Bowls during that decade and Montana being the primary reason. The same held true for his eventual heir Steve Young who saw his career take off in similar fashion.

Few coaches understood quarterbacks better than Walsh. So to see his projections holding true with Mitch Trubisky (for now) is an encouraging sign for the future, both his and the Bears’.