Today’s free horse racing tips: The Betting Spy’s top picks for Saturday’s racing at Kempton, Newcastle and Lingfield
ADRIEN DU PONT can land what looks like a well-planned raid on Kempton’s big race, the Betway Chase at 3.35.
The eight-year-old was fancied for the race 12 months ago but was undone by the unusually slow pace which was no use to this hold-up performer, who stayed on to be third.
After two modest efforts this term he has dropped to a very attractive mark and Paul Nicholls looks to have laid him out for this.
Adrien Du Pont beat Just A Sting easily over this course and distance on similar terms 14 months ago so track and trip are fine.
Nicholls runs three others and Black Corton is interesting on two counts. Firstly he is fairly weighted on his Galway Plate second and holds solid each-way claims. Secondly his front-running style should ensure the race is run to suit his stablemate.
Talkischeap was beaten off a lower mark 12 months ago and this strong stayer is being aimed at Aintree.
Double Shuffle never runs a bad race here and has place claims whilst Kildisart and Whatmore have bits of form that give them a chance but, given a decent pace, it all Ponts to success for Adrien.
Earlier, COMMANCHE RED can be the big chief in the Pendil Novices’ Chase at 1.15. He absolutely bolted in over this course and distance in a handicap, run on similar ground, on Boxing Day.
The runner-up has since won a hot race at Cheltenham and the third has gone in here so the form looks as good in the book as the performance was to the eye.
Master Tommytucker ran in the Grade 1 chase here at Christmas, showing the high regard in which he is held.
But he fell there and, having fallen in two of his three chases, is hard to recommend for all his potential. His stablemate, recent Musselburgh winner Southfield Stone, may be a bigger threat.
Erick Le Rouge won a weaker handicap than Commanche Red’s here last month and faces a stiff task but Who Dares Wins, a quality performer on the Flat and over hurdles, would be a danger if transferring that ability to fences, something he has yet to do.
I spy an eyecatcher...
At Ascot last Saturday Nordano absolutely bolted up in the 2m3f handicap hurdle, winning by 16 lengths.
But the one to take from the race is the third, EDEN DU HOUX. He lost any chance he had with a mistake three out but stayed on again in the straight.
This was his handicap debut and his mark of 130 looks very fair judged on his high-class bumper form.
He will stay further and trainer David Pipe will surely find him a winning opportunity before the season is over.
SONG FOR SOMEONE can take the number one spot after the Kingwell Hurdle (2.25).
This field is not as strong as usual and Tom Symonds’ progressive five-year-old has plenty in his favour after going close in two top handicaps.
This track should suit his front-running style and he can expose a possible lack of sharpness in the returning Elgin, who has not seen a racecourse for almost two years.
Ch’tibello has twice finished second in this and he could go well again although his 4lb penalty is no help.
Diego Du Charmil has been in fine form over fences but has not raced over hurdles since the 2017 Cheltenham Festival and that has to be a worry.
For Flat fans this is Derby Day – at least, Winter Derby day at Lingfield where the big race looks like a match between Bangkok and Dubai Warrior.
But the Listed Hever Sprint (2.05) is more interesting from a betting angle.
Good Effort is the new kid on the all-weather sprinting block and he was impressive over 6f here last time, although he may have been flattered as the race fell apart a bit.
He drops back to the minimum trip which makes things trickier and the front-runner could be picked up close home by ROYAL BIRTH.
He almost caught Good Effort at Newcastle last month – with Hareem Queen and Watchable behind – and is weighted to reverse that form with a 3lb pull.
Furious will be popular as she has a great record fresh, is favoured by race conditions and David Simcock’s horses could hardly be in better form.
I was keen on QUEL DESTIN for last week’s abandoned Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton.
He was entered for the rearranged version at Kempton so it looks significant that he runs instead in Fontwell’s National Spirit Hurdle (3.20) on Sunday over an extra three furlongs.
The way he galloped on to beat Call Me Lord on heavy ground at Sandown last month suggests the extra distance will be ideal.
Thomas Darby is the big danger after his Ascot handicap win and is only around 14-1 for the Champion but he will have to battle to beat Quel Destin.
Monsieur Lecoq, in receipt of 4lb, is not out of this either.