Why the Warriors could target Ricky Rubio with the TPE this offseason

Each week, Bay Area News Group will look at a new player the Warriors could target in October with their $17.2 million traded-player exception.

The Warriors didn’t need a traditional backup point guard to make the last five NBA Finals, but they may need one to vault back into contention next season.

After all, Stephen Curry is 32 years old and head coach Steve Kerr is already preparing for the two-time MVP to play fewer minutes as the Warriors try to maximize his championship window.

“If anything, it’s on us to try to begin to manage (Curry’s) minutes,” Kerr told The Athletic last week. “We’ve always been really blessed. We’ve been able to do that because of the talent on our team. We’ve never really run Steph into the ground. We don’t have as much depth as we once did. It’s on us as a coaching staff to make sure we get him his rest every night, and we’re not wearing him out.”

With that in mind, the Warriors could address the point guard position using their traded-player exception on Suns’ playmaker Ricky Rubio.

Yes, the Warriors could fill the backup point guard spot with the mid-level exception or minimum contracts, but there are few free-agent point guards who could crack Golden State’s core rotation.

Fred VanVleet, Jeff Teague and Goran Dragic are the biggest names as unrestricted free agents. But VanVleet will command a large salary; Teague is no longer a reliable scorer or playmaker, nor is he healthy; and Dragic, according to reports, is more likely to re-up in Miami than move. Other options — such as Matthew Dellavedova, D.J. Augustin, Reggie Jackson and Michael Carter-Williams — have shortcomings that would likely prevent them from earning significant minutes.

That makes the traded-player exception the best way to acquire an experienced player to lead the offense when Curry is on the bench.

Rubio, 29, has been one of the league’s top passers since he was drafted fifth overall in 2009. His knack for anticipating his teammates’ movements, making timely passes and playing up-tempo would keep the wheels of the Warriors’ offense turning while Curry is on the bench.

This season in Phoenix, Rubio averaged 13.1 points on 41.2% shooting (35.1% from 3-point range), 8.9 assists, 4.6 rebounds and 1.5 steals in 31.6 minutes per game. For his career, he averages 7.8 assists per game. Remove two clunky years in Utah, and that figure creeps higher to nearly 8.6 assists per game. Though an inconsistent shooter and defender, Rubio has built a career on his basketball IQ.

The fit

Rubio has started 534 of 555 games in his career, but would come off the bench in Golden State. If Curry averages around 30 minutes per game, Rubio could fill in at point guard for the other 18 and then play alongside Curry in playmaking-heavy lineups.

A lineup of Curry, Rubio, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins and Draymond Green would feature four experienced ball-handlers and Thompson, who would thrive running off screens and shooting off the catch.

Offensively, Rubio’s negative impact on spacing would be blunted by the shooting Curry and Thompson provide. Similar to Andre Iguodala and Shaun Livingston, Rubio would have more space to make plays and take easier shots that could lift his shooting percentages.

[More TPE targets: Justise Winslow]

Playing with other passers would free him up for more catch-and-shoot attempts. After hovering close to 30% on catch-and-shoot 3-pointers for most of his career, this season his average peaked at 41.8%.

Defensively, Rubio from his mid-20s would be a better fit than Rubio in his late 20s. When he first entered the NBA, Rubio was a fierce defender who used his 6-foot-9 wingspan to disrupt plays and stay in front of opposing ball handlers. But he’s shown a lot less verve on that end the last few seasons.

He is often out of place — showing too early on penetrating ball-handlers and slow to close out on shooters. He dies on screens without fighting very much at all.

This season, the Suns frequently hid Rubio on opponents’ less-threatening wings, opting to use Devin Booker and Mikal Bridges on opposing guards and scorers. While he still averaged 1.5 steals per game, those were exceptions to his laziness as opposed to a result of his consistent effort.

Still, encouraging more plays like this from Rubio should be enticing for the Warriors.

He’s a smart player. He knows what to do on defense. The bet by the Warriors would be that by taking Rubio out of a starting role in Phoenix and putting him on the bench with reduced minutes, he would make a more consistent effort on that end.

How the Warriors can make it happen

Rubio is under contract for $17 million next season, leaving a small cushion under the Warriors’ $17.2 million traded-player exception. He’s due $17.8 million in 2021-22.

That’s expensive for a backup point guard but if Rubio can thrive in lineups with Curry as Livingston and Iguodala did, he could provide a valuable return on the investment.

Like the Warriors, the Suns are set to pick in the lottery, currently with the 10th-best odds before they resume their season at the end of the month. Assuming they end up with a better pick in October’s draft, the Warriors could package the traded-player exception with their pick for the Suns’ pick and Rubio.

Of course, that would depend on the results of the lottery. It would only make sense if the Warriors were selecting in the back half of the top five, and if they were only moving down by a couple of picks. The other option would be to package the TPE with their own 2021 first-round pick.

The bottom line

If Curry is going to play fewer regular-season minutes, the Warriors will need to add playmaking this offseason. While Rubio is far from a perfect fit, he could be among the best available point guards. Others could include Boston’s Marcus Smart and Oklahoma City’s Dennis Schroder, but the price for Smart will be steep, and Schroder would struggle to play next to Curry.

Still, a traditional point guard may not be the best option: The Warriors would like to add scoring and defensive flexibility along with playmaking. It’s possible they could do that by using the TPE on a playmaking wing and selecting a versatile ball-handler with their top-five pick.

Rubio isn’t the best option for the Warriors with the TPE, but he’s among a handful of players they should be monitoring when the NBA season resumes in Florida at the end of the month.