Analyzing if Warriors should select Deni Avdija with No. 2 pick

Between now and the NBA draft, Bay Area News Group is breaking down players the Warriors can select with the No. 2 overall pick. Today, Israeli forward Deni Avdija.

The Israeli league had been on a break since March but, when Deni Avdija returned to the court in June, it was clear he had not.

“Before I go to the U.S., I have a job to finish here in Israel,” Avdija told ESPN in June as the Israeli league was set to return from its coronavirus pandemic-related hiatus.

Avdija, the 19-year-old forward projected as a top-five pick in the upcoming NBA draft, showed off a more compact shooting form and noticeably stronger frame. He finished his season by leading Maccabi Tel Aviv to the Israeli league title and becoming the youngest MVP in league history.

Among the more productive and decorated prospects in this draft class, Avdija will be an option for the Warriors with the No. 2 pick.

Avdija signed a contract with Maccabi when he was 16 years old and first garnered wide-spread attention from NBA scouts last summer, when he led Israel to a gold medal in the under-20 European championships.

Though his playing time fluctuated through the years in Europe, Avdija stepped into a more prominent role as Maccabi dealt with injuries during their postseason run, averaging 12.9 points, 6.3 rebounds and 2.7 assists per game to finish the Israeli League season.

It was the culmination of steady improvement over the last few years that helped Avdija emerge as one of Europe’s best young players. The versatile 6-foot-9 forward has impressive size and the playmaking skills to create shots for himself and his teammates.

With an array of passes, Avdija thrives running the break in transition or the pick-and-roll in the halfcourt. He has a patient dribble and the height to find teammates with bullet passes and lobs.

On defense, his length helps him stay in front of opposing perimeter players, though he does lack the lateral quickness necessary to stay in front of the NBA’s top ball-handlers. Still, he has developed the strength to bang with bigger bodies in the paint. His high block and defensive rebound rates show a willingness to act like a frontcourt player on defense.

Those skills project as a valuable combo forward in the NBA. What will determine whether or not he tops out as a role player or All-Star is his jump shot. Avdija made only a third of his total 3-point shots (61 of 183) between EuroLeague and the Israel league last season. His free-throw rate of 58.8% is also a concern.

[More: Why Anthony Edwards makes sense for the Warriors at No. 2]

However, those marks are an improvement after shooting 27.7% from 3-point range and 51.2% on free throws in 2018-19. His dedication to working on his form and willingness to take tough shots are encouraging signs.

Without a reliable jumper, Avdija would still be a valuable rotation player due to his ability to play both forward positions, finish at the rim and get teammates involved. If that jumper comes around, he could develop into one of the top playmaking forwards in the league.

First week of work done… I’m hungry #LivingTheDream pic.twitter.com/OP5PnDxUVq

— Deni Avdija (@deniavdia8) August 28, 2020

Strengths:

• Ability to pass in transition and out of the pick-and-roll with a variety of passes. Can also serve as a hub on offense out of the high-post.
• Above-average first step and uses his strength to finish through contact at the rim.
  That strength and toughness helps him stand his ground when guarding bigger players, and battle for position in the post.
• Smart help-defender who uses his length, at 6-foot-9, to protect the rim (1.2 blocks per 40 minutes) and grab rebounds (21.7% defensive rebound rate).
• High basketball IQ and super competitive.

Weaknesses:

• Despite the improvement in his jumper, the shooting numbers are still worrisome. There’s not much precedent of players going from a 50% free-throw shooter to a reliable shooter.
• Lacks the lateral quickness necessary to stay in front of typical perimeter starters in the NBA or fight over screens.
• Doesn’t have high-end athleticism, so he will have to rely on his developing handle to create space and ball skills to make plays.

NBA player comparisons: Danilo Gallinari, Dario Saric, Hedo Turkoglu

Fit with the Warriors: Should the Warriors select Avdija at No. 2, it’s easy to see him sliding into Andre Iguodala’s role as a playmaking forward off the bench who could help unlock small-ball lineups.

A five-man unit of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Avdija and Draymond Green would offer plenty of playmaking and scoring. In addition to being able to play up-tempo, with his size, Avdija could facilitate offense out of the post.

Defensively, Avdija would be a natural partner to Green in the frontcourt. His ability to protect the basket would be a welcome respite for Green, and Green’s help defense could cover up Avdija’s shortcomings as an on-ball defender.

If Anthony Edwards is not available with the No. 2 pick, the Warriors could do worse than drafting Avdija.