49ers QB Market Watch: Where things stand entering Super Bowl
Someone soon could be coming for Jimmy Garoppolo’s job. The 49ers’ brass, however, has long insisted that Garoppolo is their 2021 starter – unless an upgrade is found.
Perhaps the 2022 offseason might be a more tailored market for the 49ers, in terms of veterans who’d be more available than now, including Kirk Cousins, Matt Ryan and 2005 oversight Aaron Rodgers.
Still, quarterback chatter is dominating this offseason. To help you keep track, here is a list of options, almost all of which are long shots (until they’re not):
Deshaun Watson
2020 team: Houston Texans
Contract: 4 years, $156 million left
Latest rumor: The Texans have not engaged in talks with any team and have insisted they’re not trading Watson, per NFL Network. Back on Jan. 15, Watson commented “Dope pic!” when he saw himself in a Joe Montana jersey on a 49ers fan’s Instagram site (@georgekittlenation).
Why him: Despite tearing an ACL his 2017 rookie season, he’s bounced back into a lethal passer (14,539 yards, 104 TDs, 36 INTs) and runner (1,677, 17 TDs). He owns a 67.8 completion percentage, No. 1 in NFL history. He produced 12 game-winning drives or fourth-quarter comebacks for the 2018-19 Texans.
Why not: The price surely will be too high, and other teams are better positioned in terms of draft equity (multiple, high spots in the first round) to make a deal amid their desperation. Also, Kyle Shanahan’s structured offense hasn’t adapted for a mobile quarterback since Robert Griffin III back in Washington, so Watson’s off-schedule flair might backfire.
Odds: 50-to-1
Kirk Cousins
2020 team: Minnesota Vikings
Contract: 2 years, $55 million salary left
Latest rumor: Vikings coach Mike Zimmer said Friday on NFL Network: “Kirk’s our guy. You know, he had a terrific year this year. We were fourth in the league on offense.” That effectively shooting down a Cousins-to-49ers rumor floated Monday by an Indianapolis-based reporter.
Why him: Shanahan groomed him upon Cousins’ arrival in Washington in 2012, and a reunion may have been in the works for 2018, until Garoppolo’s sudden arrival and success with the 49ers in late 2017.
Why not: As much as the 49ers promote Garoppolo’s winning record, it’s notable that Cousins is 51-51-2 in the regular season, and 1-2 in playoff action, including a 172-yard, six-sack fiasco against the 2019 49ers in a divisional round wipeout.
Odds: 50-to-1
Matt Ryan
2020 team: Atlanta Falcons
Contract: 3 years, $60 million salary left
Latest rumor: The Falcons are not entertaining trade offers and new coach Arthur Smith’s system will be similar to Shanahan’s that Ryan adapted well to from 2015-16, per NFL Network. Falcons owner Arthur Blank said he’d be “completely shocked” if Ryan doesn’t return in 2021.
Why him: He won NFL MVP honors and reached the Super Bowl with Shanahan as the Falcons’ offensive coordinator in 2016, so perhaps they can pick up where they left off, and Ryan can reunite with his cousin, right tackle Mike McGlinchey.
Why not: The Falcons would sustain a $49.9 million salary cap hit if trading him before June 1, and that alone should rule out a potential parting.
Odds: 100-to-1
Aaron Rodgers
2020 team: Green Bay Packers
Contract: 3 years, $65 million salary left
Latest rumor: After Rodgers said his future was “uncertain” after losing a second straight NFC title game, the Packers’ CEO rushed in to say: “We’re not idiots. Aaron Rodgers will be back. He’s our leader.”
Why him: He’s the projected league MVP for this season, and he flourished in a similar system that should lead to an easy transition, 16 years after the 49ers spurned the Chico native for Alex Smith atop the draft.
Why not: Not only would the Packers endure a $31.5 million cap hit, it makes no sense to send him to a NFC rival, one that routed them in the NFC Championship Game a year ago.
Odds: 500-to-1
Dak Prescott
2020 team: Dallas Cowboys
Contract: Free agent
Latest rumor: The Cowboys said last month they’re “obviously very committed” to keeping Prescott, who reportedly rejected a massive offer (over $100 million guaranteed) last summer.
Why him: If the Cowboys continue to stall on a multi-year contract, the 49ers would offer a playoff-ready roster for him to resume a career that’s been prolific (17,364 yards, 106 TDs, 40 INTs). Plus, we’re due to restart the 49ers-Cowboys storied pipeline.
Why not: Scary finances aside, he’s coming off a fractured ankle from last season’s fifth game, which is not an ideal recipe to replace a team captain (Garoppolo) who was stricken with his own ankle woes in 2020.
Odds: 60-to-1
Sam Darnold
2020 team: New York Jets
Contract: $920,000 salary, $3.9 million roster bonus in 2021
Latest rumor: Coach Robert Saleh, formerly of the 49ers, called Darnold “an unbelievable talent,” and ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported it could take a first-round draft pick to secure Darnold’s rights.
Why him: The Jets own the No. 2 pick to parlay into a new quarterback (see: rookie or Deshaun Watson), so that could prompt Saleh to endorse dispatching Darnold back to his native California for a career reboot. But would he replace Garoppolo or be a backup — or even a bridge to a rookie QB?
Why not: He had the league’s worst passer rating this season (72.7), capping off a turnover-laden tenure (39 career interceptions, seven lost fumbles).
Odds: 75-to-1
Ryan Fitzpatrick
2020 team: Miami Dolphins
Contract: Free agent
Latest rumor: His two-year term in Miami “really re-lit that fire under me and I still want to play,” Fitpatrick told the Pat McAfee Show.
Why him: There’s not a more tested journeyman than Fitzpatrick, 38, who showed his magical tendencies last season with 350 yards and three touchdowns in a 43-17 rout of the host 49ers. He could help groom a young quarterback.
Why not: He’d be on his ninth team in 17 years, and he’s not once been to the playoffs.
Odds: 60-to-1
Carson Wentz
2020 team: Philadelphia Eagles
Contract: four years, $128 million
Latest rumor: Teams have “begun calling the Eagles” to rescue Wentz from his sour state in Philly, the NFL Network reported Thursday.
Why him: This 49ers regime loves to chase former first-round draft picks, and Wentz (No. 2, 2016) showed enough moxie and touch to rally past the 49ers for a 25-20 win Oct. 4 at Levi’s Stadium.
Why not: The 49ers would take on a huge financial commitment to a quarterback who became too erratic (57.4 completion percentage, 15 interceptions) and lost confidence before being benched for rookie Jalen Hurts.
Odds: 200-to-1
Mitchell Trubisky
2020 team: Chicago Bears
Contract: Free agent
Latest rumor: Robbie Gould, the 49ers kicker whose offseason home is in Chicago, recently said he’s a “huge fan” of Trubisky, citing his arm talent, mental fortitude and likability.
Why him: He’s obviously not the first Bears quarterback to struggle so perhaps the 49ers will help him realize his potential. He was the only QB that Shanahan worked out before the 2017 draft before trading down a spot so the Bears could take him at No. 2.
Why not: It’s a red flag that the QB-needy Bears did not pick up his fifth-year option, and that stance was supported as they lost their final two games to miss the playoffs.
Odds: 30-to-1
Derek Carr
2020 team: Raiders
Contract: Two years, $40 million salary
Latest rumor: Carr is expected to return for an eighth season rather than be packaged with draft picks for the Texans’ Watson, according to the Bay Area News Group’s Jerry McDonald.
Why him: He’s a seasoned QB who threw for a career-high 4,103 yards last season with 27 touchdowns and nine interceptions, on a team doomed by its defense. Carr’s return to the Bay Area would mark the latest in many 49ers-Raiders crossovers.
Why not: Is he really an upgrade over Garoppolo, which was the caveat Shanahan outlined for a change? His only postseason action has come in the Pro Bowl (2015-17).
Odds: 100-to-1