Hotline mailbag: Pac-12 rosters are stocked with super-seniors, thanks to the shortened 2020 season
The Hotline mailbag is published each Friday. Send questions to pac12hotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or hit me on Twitter: @WilnerHotline. Due to volume — and in some cases, the need for research — not all questions will be answered the week of submission. Thanks for your understanding.
Some questions have been edited for clarity and brevity.
Talk to me about the “super seniors?” Which team has the most, and which one is the “player to watch?” — @SebastianLane9
First, for those new to the term: Players who were seniors in 2020 and took advantage of the free year of eligibility to return this fall — for their fifth season of eligibility — have been dubbed super-seniors.
And they are, in our opinion, one of the top stories in the Pac-12.
Because there are a lot of them.
More, in fact, than in any other Power Five conference.
According to research by the Associated Press, the Pac-12 will have 105 super-seniors on the 2021 rosters, followed by the ACC, with 102 super-seniors.
The numbers break down like this, per the AP:
Pac-12: 8.8 (super-seniors per team)
ACC: 7.3
Big 12: 6.9
SEC: 6.7
Big Ten: 6.3
Two explanations immediately come to mind:
— The Pac-12 didn’t possess as many draft-ready seniors.
Rather than risking their futures, the marginal NFL prospects played it safe, hoping another season in college would improve their value.
— The Pac-12’s truncated 2020 season left many seniors wanting more.
Remember, the conference started weeks, if not months later than its peers. Only half the teams played six games or more; in other leagues, most teams played at least eight and many played nine or 10.
The AP’s research determined that within the Pac-12, Arizona State and USC have the most super-seniors, with 14 each.
Here’s the full breakdown:
(Note: The research was published in late February, so numbers could have changed slightly.)
Arizona State: 14
USC: 14
Arizona: 11
Utah: 11
Cal: 10
Oregon State: 10
Washington State: 9
Oregon: 8
UCLA: 6
Washington: 6
Colorado: 3
Stanford: 3
I hesitate to select one out of the 105 as the super-senior “to watch,” but several come to mind as likely difference-makers, including Arizona State cornerback Chase Lucas, Colorado linebacker Nate Landman and Cal linebackers Cam Goode and Kuony Deng.
In addition, two transfer quarterbacks are super-seniors: Oregon State’s Sam Noyer (from Colorado) and Utah’s Charlie Brewer (from Baylor).
In our view, the super-seniors are one reason the Pac-12 should produce quality play this fall. Whether it generates an elite, playoff-caliber team remains to be seen — we are skeptical — but the depth should be superb, particularly in the South.
With regards to the super-seniors, there’s a bit of cosmic rebalancing at play:
So much of the 2020 season was taken away, but the benefits should be felt this fall.
For football in Los Angeles (and elsewhere), what are the COVID restrictions for attendance? Pac-12 fans couldn’t go to any games last year. — @pyperkub
As far as we know, there are no capacity limits for the USC and UCLA games. Nor are there limits on crowd size anywhere in the conference.
That said, the situation is extremely fluid. Because of the rise in cases tied to the Delta variant, we would not be surprised if local health authorities reimpose restrictions on attendance in the next few weeks.
How likely is a Pac-12/Big Ten alliance? Would Fox (or CBS) see it as a potential counterweight to the ESPN/SEC juggernaut? — @EngelKRichard
I’m not sure the likelihood of an alliance is quite 50-50, but there’s a reasonable chance something materializes.
Fox will undoubtedly seek ways to strengthen its foothold in college football, partly because of ESPN’s ever-expanding influence and partly because Fox’s investment in the Big 12 will plunge in value once Texas and Oklahoma leave the conference.
The network chess pieces are a critical component to realignment: ESPN’s inventory has grown immeasurably in value with SEC expansion, while Fox’s inventory became dramatically less valuable.
If the network is motivated to recoup lost ground, then strengthening its two remaining properties, the Pac-12 and Big Ten — Fox is not involved with the ACC — is an obvious option.
How long until USC, Oregon and Washington leave for the Big Ten? — @DaveMinAZ
Why wouldn’t USC, UCLA, Washington and Oregon look to join the Big Ten? I don’t like it, but it seems like the logical next move. — @jgholifield
My preference in this mailbag is to focus on questions pertaining to the 2021 football season. But consider two recent Hotline articles that addressed the future of the conference.
The first outlined scenarios that could lead to a breakup, the second focused on steps that could ensure its survival.
The attention given to recruiting ratings is warranted, with clear results on the field. Is there a way to rank the transfer portal, an increasingly important source of talent? — @jkparker2000
An excellent question, for which there is merely a decent answer.
The 247Sports.com website has a public-facing transfer database, where players are searchable by position, conference/school, eligibility and commitment status.
It includes the star rating assigned to each player during his high school recruitment.
We haven’t found a transfer portal equivalent to the recruiting rankings, with rankings specific to the transfer classes. But the 247Sports portal provides some context on the quality of arrivals within each team.
What becomes of the Pac 12 Network? It was gutted over the last couple of years. Any guesses on what the future is? — Michael Pilney
The Pac-12 Networks should be close to pre-COVID form during the upcoming season, at least in terms of the quantity of football content on the linear networks. (It recently released a programming schedule, which the Hotline will publish prior to the season.)
Keep in mind that any evaluation of the networks must start with the two (often competing) missions:
They must broadcast 850 live events each academic year; and they must churn out cash to the campuses.
Everything else is secondary to meeting the contractual obligations and paying the schools.
Longer term, the future is muddled. We suspect the networks will survive the next round of media rights negotiations, if only because the Pac-12 will need an avenue to broadcast its Olympics sports.
(It could very well be a digital-only platform, by the way.)
However, the Hotline would be more than a tad surprised if any football games are broadcast on the Pac-12 Networks 2.0. That content carries too much value to be kept in house, and unseen.
Were we all wrong about Jedd Fisch? — @beardownincali
The energy level, both within the program and on the recruiting trail, has been impressive. Arizona’s 2022 recruiting class has 13 commitments, per 247Sports, and is currently ranked No. 5 in the conference.
But it’s much too soon to know if Fisch will prove a shrewd hire. We typically wait three years before assessing a new coach’s performance — and four if there’s a pandemic.
There are two hurdles for Fisch, not one:
The first is returning Arizona to a basic level of respectability (four or five wins per season); the second is turning the Wildcats into a regular bowl participant and occasional contender in the South (seven or eight wins per year).
I would be fairly surprised if Fisch doesn’t accomplish the former; the latter is the standard against which he will ultimately be measured.
What the more likely headline at the end of the season? “USC Wins the Pac-12” or “USC Fires Clay Helton”? — @ChrisCrawford24
In our estimation, there is a better chance USC’s on-field performance leads to a coaching change than a conference championship.
The South should be quite competitive, with Arizona State, Utah and UCLA as potential contenders.
Meanwhile, the Trojans’ depth chart has weaknesses, especially on the offensive line.
But this being USC, and Helton being Helton, there is a third door:
The Trojans claim the division and satisfy the administration — essentially, a 9-3 or 10-2 regular season — but don’t win the conference title or advance to a major bowl.
In other words, it’s Groundhog Clay.
Will you be releasing a Hotline preseason all-conference team? — @beal_zach
Yes, for sure, and thanks for asking.
The Hotline has a barrage of Pac-12 preview content planned for the second half of August, with the majority scheduled for publication the week of Aug. 23.
It will include an all-conference team, order-of-finish predictions, bowl projections, Hot Seat assessments, Heisman Trophy forecasts, quarterback rankings, an analysis of the top newcomers and loads more.
Support the Hotline: Receive three months of unlimited access for just 99 cents. Yep, that’s 99 cents for 90 days, with the option to cancel anytime. Details are here, and thanks for your support.
*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to pac12hotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716
*** Follow me on Twitter: @WilnerHotline
*** Pac-12 Hotline is not endorsed or sponsored by the Pac-12 Conference, and the views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of the Conference.