Jameis Winston's injury is a blow to the Saints offense. Here's why it doesn't kill their playoff chances

The New Orleans Saints’ playoff hopes were dealt a blow on Sunday when  starting quarterback Jameis Winston went down with what has since been confirmed as a torn ACL. Winston will miss the remainder of the season, meaning New Orleans will likely finish the year with either Trevor Siemian or Taysom Hill taking snaps.

Winston’s career shortcomings have been discussed ad nauseam, but through seven games he was having what was shaping up to be a career year. The Saints are 5-2 and just a half game behind the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC South in no small part due to Winston’s steadiness.

So how does a change at quarterback impact New Orleans going forward? The easy answer is that it likely puts a limit on an already conservative offense’s ability to score points through the air.

Known for his big arm and propensity to take risks on long shots down the field, Winston’s turnaround this season was partly because he was doing less of that. His 7.3 yards per attempt this year are the second-lowest of any season he’s been a starter, and his 167.1 yards per game are by far the lowest of his career. Yet, when he did take shots, they were more successful than ever. A career-high 8.7% of his throws resulted in touchdowns and just 1.9% were intercepted, also a career best.

Saints coach Sean Payton wasn’t ready Monday to name who his starter will be going forward, but whether it’s Siemian or Hill, the game plan will likely change.

Trevor Siemian

It’s easier to have a player with all the arm talent in the world, like Winston, dial it back than it is to ask someone with less arm talent to do more. Siemian, who replaced Winston in Sunday’s game, didn’t get in the way of a win for the Saints, but the passing game’s limitations with him under center were apparent. He completed just 55% of his 29 attempts while averaging just 5.5 yards.

While it’s possible there was rust for someone who hasn’t played in a game since 2019, it’s more likely what Siemian showed Sunday is exactly who he is. For his career, Siemian is a sub-60% passer who averages 6.7 yards per attempt. His 3.6 career touchdown percentage is lower than any single season in Winston’s career.

Can the Saints win with him? Sure, the Broncos rode a strong defense to a 13-11 record in Siemian starts from 2016-17, but they weren’t a playoff team either season. Even after Sunday’s 36-point explosion, the Saints are still just 13th with an average of 25.1 points per game and 26th with an average of 5.0 yards per play. Siemian is even more of a game manager than what Winton has been this season, so those numbers could drop even lower with him running the show. The Saints would have to lean even more on Alvin Kamara and the rushing attack while working to win games on the defensive side of the ball.

Taysom Hill

Hill, who was in a preseason battle with Winston for the starting job, has been out since suffering a concussion in Week 5. Payton said Hill is progressing but stopped short of declaring him back. If Hill is to return and assume the starting role, he adds a dynamic to the offense as a runner that Winston did not.

Hill has 14 career rushing touchdowns and another seven as a receiver. In four starts last season in place of an injured Drew Brees, he led the Saints to a 3-1 record. He’s even gained 7.7 yards per pass attempt over his career. But like Siemian, Hill also has limitations throwing the ball. The four touchdowns he tossed during that four-game span in 2020 are the only he’s thrown in his career.

In the preseason, Hill’s inability to consistently complete passes down the field the way Winston did stood out. New Orleans’ ability to stretch the field won’t be completely negated if he takes over as the starter, but it just won’t be counted on in the same way. To win games, the Saints would again have to rely on a strong run game, that would at least include Hill, and a defense that has allowed the fourth-fewest points per game this season.

Verdict

The Saints’ best path to the playoffs, even before Winston’s injury, was always going to be a wild card spot, and that still remains a good possibility. Already having five wins under its belt, New Orleans’ remaining schedule includes two games against the Falcons and games against the Eagles, Jets, Dolphins and Panthers. No matter the offensive limitations, the team should have a good chance to win a majority of those games.

Beyond that is where things get dicey for this team. The Bucs (-429) still hold shorter odds than New Orleans (+280) to win the NFC South on Tipico Sportsbook. The Saints have the sixth shortest odds to win the NFC at +1500.