College Football Playoff watch: Despite latest rankings, Notre Dame has fourth-best playoff shot

Making the College Football Playoff looked like a long shot for Notre Dame after it lost to Cincinnati back in early October.

But almost seven weeks later, the Fighting Irish’s playoff chances have climbed back in a big way, and they currently have the fourth-best shot at making the playoff, per ESPN’s Football Power Index.

After Notre Dame lost to Cincinnati, it’s playoff chances plummeted to less than 10 percent. Things weren’t looking good, and a lot of people wrote it off as a serious playoff contender. But as it’s continued to win and now boasts a 9-1 record, it’s playoff chances have steadily increased.

Going into Week 10, the Fighting Irish had the eighth-best playoff chances at 15.9 percent. However, after convincing wins against Navy and Virginia in November — and ahead of their Week 12 matchup against Georgia Tech on Saturday— they have a 46.2 percent chance to make the playoff, behind just Georgia (98.9 percent), Alabama (74.7 percent) and Ohio State (53.7 percent), per ESPN’s FPI.

And that’s all despite the playoff committee ranking them at No. 8 as of Tuesday.

Back to being an FBS independent, Notre Dame no longer has a conference championship to play for to boost its playoff resume after briefly joining the ACC last season. But if it wins out against Georgia Tech this weekend and Stanford on November 27, it’ll be looking pretty good at 11-1 with that single defeat coming against a currently ranked No. 5 Cincinnati team.

Couple that with a guaranteed coming loss from at least one of the three Big Ten teams currently ranked ahead of Notre Dame — No. 4 Ohio State, No. 6 Michigan and No. 7 Michigan State — and the Fighting Irish could slide into or closer to the top-4 teams.

Here’s a look at the teams with the top-10 best chances to make the College Football Playoff going into Week 12, according to ESPN’s FPI as of Wednesday.

1. Georgia Bulldogs (10-0)

• Playoff: 98.9 percent
• National championship game: 73.9 percent
• Win championship: 46.8 percent

2. Alabama Crimson Tide (9-1)

• Playoff: 74.7 percent
• National championship game: 50.8 percent
• Win championship: 25.5 percent

3. Ohio State Buckeyes (9-0)

• Playoff: 53.7 percent
• National championship game: 28.1 percent
• Win championship: 13.3 percent

4. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-1)

• Playoff: 46.2 percent
• National championship game: 11.5 percent
• Win championship: 3.5 percent

Related: College Football Playoff Rankings: No change in the top seven teams as Georgia stays No. 1

5. Cincinnati Bearcats (10-0)

• Playoff: 45.1 percent
• National championship game: 10.1 percent
• Win championship: 3.0 percent

6. Michigan Wolverines (9-1)

• Playoff: 33.5 percent
• National championship game: 12.1 percent
• Win championship: 4.0 percent

7. Oklahoma State Cowboys (9-1)

• Playoff: 26.4 percent
• National championship game: 8.0 percent
• Win championship: 2.3 percent

8. Oklahoma Sooners (9-1)

• Playoff: 11.8 percent
• National championship game: 3.6 percent
• Win championship: 1.2 percent

9. Oregon Ducks (9-1)

• Playoff: 7.0 percent
• National championship game: 1.3 percent
• Win championship: 0.3 percent

10. Michigan State Spartans (9-1)

• Playoff: 2.0 percent
• National championship game: 0.4 percent
• Win championship: 0.1 percent

Among the notable playoff-hopeful teams that used to be closer to the top include: Ole Miss (0.3 percent chance to make the playoff), Wake Forest (0.3 percent), Baylor (0.1 percent) and Auburn (0.0 percent).