Even with Luka Doncic less than 100 percent, the Mavericks can knock off the Jazz

Dallas Mavericks All-Star Luka Doncic has a left calf strain, the team announced Tuesday, adding that there is no timetable for his return.

The injury puts a slight damper on their postseason hopes as they get set to host the Utah Jazz in Game 1 of their first round series Saturday. As 4.5-point underdogs, the Mavericks are the only home team not favored out of the four first round matchups already decided. 

That spread almost assuredly would’ve gone the other way had Doncic not suffered the injury Sunday in the team’s season finale. Dallas won seven of eight games to close the regular season, including four straight. The Jazz stumbled down the stretch, losing five straight – including a 14-point loss to the Mavericks – before putting together four wins in their final six games. 

If Doncic is forced to miss games, the Jazz should be favored not just to win Game 1 but to win the series, as the Mavericks simply don’t have the personnel to make up for what he brings to the team in terms of creating offense for himself and others.

However, there is some optimism that he won’t miss time. A source told ESPN “no,” when asked if he could be ruled out for Game 1. And his backcourt mate Jalen Brunson said he feels like Doncic will be ready to go.

I’m hammering Dallas against 4.5 points, because if Doncic does play — even at less than 100% — I like Dallas’ chances to win outright. The biggest reason is I simply don’t trust Utah. The Jazz only have two wins against the spread in their last 11 games, according to Covers. Since the start of March, they only have three wins against teams with winning records. But beyond that, there are also ways a banged up Doncic came impact the game.

His calf injury obviously limits his mobility but Doncic’s game isn’t predicated on athleticism anyway. One of his best attributes is dictating pace rather than have it dictated to him – nobody can speed him up. That works perfectly in this particular matchup. While the Mavericks have the league’s slowest pace over the course of the entire season, the Jazz have the slowest pace in the last 10 games and the eighth-slowest overall.

Doncic certainly likes to get into the paint for layups and free throw opportunities, but those chances are likely to be limited more than usual anyway with Rudy Gobert roaming the middle. As the Mavericks’ leader in 3-pointers, if Doncic is able to continue scoring from there and occasionally find the open man, the Mavericks play tough enough defense to stay in games. And once we’re in the last two minutes of a close game in the playoffs, anything can happen.