1 key college football betting trend to keep an eye on in Week 1 (featuring Alabama and Michigan)

While searching for college football trends to bet on for Week 0, one stat in particular caught my attention. Per Action Network:

During the last 5 years, teams favored by 30 points or more are just 35-49 (41.7%) ATS in their season openers, finishing below .500 ATS in all five years

That’s not exactly a small sample size. And in Week 0, two teams were favored by more 30+ points. UNC opened at -34.5 against Florida A&M and won 56-24, failing to beat the spread by a field goal (the line closed at FAMU +45, which was no doubt influenced by the Rattlers missing a ton of players and nearly canceling the game).

Florida State opened as -35.5 favorites against Duquesne but closed at -41.5. FSU won 47-7, failing to cover the closing line.

So now we may be looking at a bonafide edge. In the last five years, teams are 35-51 ATS in their season-opener when favored by 30+ points. There are seven teams who open their season in Week 1 with similar spreads.

I’m not ready to say you should hammer these lines immediately. Rather, you may want to wait until right before kickoff to see if there’s any favorable movement. That’s what I’ll be doing here and these are the game I’m keeping an eye on.

All lines are as of Aug 31. Odds via Tipico.