Russell Wilson's extension proves the Browns' shady Deshaun Watson deal hasn't broken the QB market ... yet

There are few guarantees in the NFL. This is especially true when it comes to player contracts.

The bulk of the money handed out in free agency each offseason can disappear with one personnel decision or untimely injury. Unlike the NBA and MLB where contracts lock players into a certain amount of money over a certain amount of time, an NFL veteran can sign a $68 million contract and only be guaranteed to receive $19 million of it, as Antonio Brown got with the Steelers in 2017.

There have been signals this could change, but only at the league’s most valuable position. Quarterback Kirk Cousins signed for a fully-committed $84 million over three years to leave Washington behind and become a Minnesota Viking in 2018. He’s been signing short-term guaranteed contracts ever since.

This strategy got a boost in 2022. The Cleveland Browns traded three first-round picks to acquire Deshaun Watson. They then broke the compensation curve by handing him five years and a locked-in $230 million despite facing more than 20 accusations of sexual misconduct for what the NFL would later describe as a “pattern of predatory behavior.”

This seemed to portend a future where guaranteed contracts became the norm for star quarterbacks. Russell Wilson’s contract extension isn’t that.

It’s a lot of money, sure — the second-highest salary in the league behind Aaron Rodgers — but only about two-thirds of it will hit his bank account even if he never takes another snap.

Wilson had tremendous leverage over the Broncos. They traded multiple first- and second-round picks to acquire in him hopes he could follow the Peyton Manning path to a Super Bowl. He was only signed through 2023. While Denver could have kept him around and franchise tagged him if necessary, the club also wanted to avoid even the specter of behind-the-scenes quarterback drama that’s marred recent offseasons in Green Bay.

Despite that, Wilson couldn’t get the kind of guarantees Watson got. If they both got injured in 2022 and never returned to the field, Watson would earn $65 million more over the length of their deals.

There are significant differences between Watson and Wilson. Wilson is 34 years old and Watson is 26. Watson led the league in passing yards and yards per attempt the last season he took the field. Wilson was hurt and struggled to one of the least impressive performances of his career in 2021.

But Wilson is a Super Bowl champion with a 9-7 record in the playoffs. Watson is 1-2 and has never advanced beyond the Divisional Round. Wilson is a Walter Payton Man of the Year Award winner. Watson will miss 11 games this fall via league suspension as a result of his alleged predatory behavior off the field.

Inking the former Seahawk for big money — but not fully guaranteed money — was a signal the league has no desire for Watson and Cousins’ outlier deals to become the norm. Wilson’s extension was roughly business as usual, reminding us Cleveland’s unprecedented deal may have just been a Browns Tax rather than the dawning of a new era of quarterback prosperity.

This is a tough scene for Lamar Jackson, the former MVP currently on the last season of his rookie contract with the Baltimore Ravens.

Per Fox Sports’ Jay Glazer, he’s purportedly propped Watson’s deal up as the benchmark for a fully guaranteed deal in Baltimore. Jackson arguably has as much leverage as Wilson in these talks. He might even have less, since the Ravens can franchise tag him each of the following two seasons on hefty one-year deals that would clock in at less than 40 percent of the reported $250 million he’s looking for over a long-term contract.

The dynamic young quarterback will likely have to settle for something better than Kyler Murray’s five year, $230 million deal with $189.5 million locked in. That’s not bad! It’s still a tremendous amount of cash! But it’s not the white whale the Browns served up to Watson coming off a lost season and staring down a lengthy league-mandated suspension.

That deal threatened to upend the natural order of NFL contracts. Wilson’s deal in Denver was a return to it.