Pac-12 stock report: For Utah and Oregon, it’s all about the line of scrimmage
Commentary on Pac-12 developments on the field …
Rising: Time in the spotlight
Its reputation battered by years of substandard play on the national stage, the Pac-12 has a sterling opportunity this weekend.
Two of its best programs, each with College Football Playoff aspirations, visit SEC country — and both are in advantageous spots (albeit for different reasons):
With a veteran roster and staff continuity, Utah is favored to beat Florida. In fact, the Utes opened as a one-point favorite and are now favored by a field goal.
In contrast, Oregon stands as a huge underdog (17 points) against Georgia, the defending national champions. But unless the Ducks are run off the field in the first half, the optics won’t veer into the unseemly — it’s the beauty of low expectations.
The key for both teams? Holding up at the line of scrimmage in the fourth quarter.
They must avoid the fate that befell Washington and Oregon when the Pacific Northwest powers faced Auburn in back-to-back seasons on neutral fields (Arlington and Atlanta).
The Huskies lost to the Tigers 21-16 in 2018, followed by the Ducks’ come-from-ahead defeat in ’19.
In each case, Auburn’s advantage came up front, with its bigger bodies wearing down the Pac-12 lines.
We checked the numbers to confirm our recollection.
— Fourth-quarter points
Washington and Oregon: 3
Auburn (both games): 20
— Fourth-quarter drives
Washington and Oregon: 6
Auburn (both games): 6
— Fourth-quarter yards
Washington and Oregon: 82
Auburn (both games): 218
How might the SEC advantage manifest in the final minutes of close games Saturday?
Maybe it’s the block that creates the running lane on third-and-3.
Maybe it’s the edge pressure that causes an errant throw on second-and-11.
Make enough plays on the margins in crucial situations, and the central dynamics change.
The Utes and Ducks can’t win with big plays alone. They must make the small plays, too — and do it for 60 minutes.
Falling: Defensive linemen
The early days of Pac-12 training camp passed without significant injuries to top-tier players, then reality arrived.
On Aug. 15, Arizona State announced that end Michael Matus would miss the season with a knee injury.
The following week, Cal disclosed a season-ending lower body injury to defensive tackle Brett Johnson.
Matus and Johnson would have been two of the top players at their positions in the conference — and those positions are among the most difficult to fill.
The prospects for both teams are bleaker because of the injuries.
For Johnson, the luck is particularly bad: He missed the 2021 season because of injuries from a car accident.
Rising: Cal’s NFL production
The NFL released its top 100 players for the upcoming season, as voted by their peers, and the Bears led the way within the Pac-12 with three representatives: quarterback Aaron Rodgers (No. 3), receiver Keenan Allen (No. 35) and defensive end Cameron Jordan (No. 69), who keeps rolling after more than a decade in the league (all with the Saints).
Oregon and USC each placed two players on the list, while Washington and Oregon State had one.
Not exactly the hierarchy you might have expected, but the Bears actually have an impressive recent history of turning out pros.
Falling: QB continuity
The Hotline has previously addressed all the quarterback turnover across the conference, with seven teams expected to start players who passed through the transfer portal in the past nine months.
That’s 58.3 percent of the starters, a slightly higher percentage than peer leagues.
According to 247Sports, 44.8 percent of teams in the Power Five will start transfers at the most important position.
It’s probably too early in the portal era to draw conclusions about any Pac-12 over-reliance on transfers, and why that might be the case.
When one-third of your head coaching lineup turns over, the likelihood of new schemes — and new skill sets — naturally increases.
All four of the first-year coaches (Washington’s Kalen DeBoer, WSU’s Jake Dickert, Oregon’s Dan Lanning and USC’s Lincoln Riley) pulled their starters from the portal.
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