Mountain West football: Projecting the final standings, plus the championship game winner

This is the last football season the Mountain West will use divisions, and it’s far from the most dramatic change the conference might experience.

With the Pac-12 Conference flirting with expansion after losing Southern California and UCLA, the focus has turned to what that league will do next.

Will it go after San Diego State? Do Boise State, Fresno State or UNLV have a shot at a Pac-12 invite?

Even with change seemingly inevitable, the Mountain West has some familiar names expected to contend in both divisions this season. Here’s our best guess at how the season will play out.

West Division

1. Fresno State

Former California coach Jeff Tedford is back for his second go-around at Fresno State, but just as important is the return of quarterback Jake Haener, who threw 33 touchdown passes last season. Tedford is known for getting the most out of his quarterbacks, and the two go back to when Haener attended Tedford’s camps as a youngster. Around Haener, most of the offense is back from a team that averaged 33.4 points, and the Bulldogs bolstered their overall roster with eight transfers. Tedford won the 2018 Mountain West title and should put the Bulldogs in contention for another one.

2. San Diego State

The supposed front-runner for Pac-12 expansion has been in the headlines for the wrong reasons this week. Hanging over the start of the season are questions about whether the university mishandled a rape allegation involving three football players last October. San Diego State badly wants to change the conversation as it begins play at the $310 million, 35,000-seat Snapdragon Stadium. Safety Patrick McMorris and linebacker Caden McDonald, who were first-team All-Mountain West last season, anchor one of the conference’s top defenses.

3. San Jose State

The Spartans have continuity, for the first time in school history returning its head coach, offensive coordinator and defensive coordinator for a fifth consecutive season. All three could’ve earned lifetime contracts after the shocking Mountain West championship two years ago. The Spartans went a more familiar 5-7 last season, and to get back into contention, they brought in former Hawaii quarterback Chevan Cordeiro (2,793 yards, 17 TDs) and 12 other transfers.

4. UNLV

The Rebels’ opening opponent was only Idaho State, but these kinds of lowly programs have given them problems in the past. UNLV won 52-21 in a game that wasn’t that close, and Doug Brumfield asserted himself as the clear starting quarterback with 356 yards and four touchdowns passing. The key is whether Brumfield and his teammates build on this victory or whether it was just a good day against a bad team and another two- or three-win season ensues.

5. Nevada

Gone is coach Jay Norvell, who left for fellow Mountain West member Colorado State. Even though the Wolf Pack have been bowl eligible four years in a row, Norvell’s departure wasn’t a good look for this program that used to do more than simply become bowl eligible. New coach Ken Wilson isn’t so new, having served there 19 years in various capacities. He’s off to a decent start, beating New Mexico State 23-12 in the opener.

6. Hawaii

First-year coach Timmy Chang was an outstanding quarterback for the Rainbow Warriors, but he inherited a mess. Previous coach Todd Graham stepped down in January after the state senate grilled him over 19 players transferring. And then Hawaii opened this season with a 63-10 loss at home to Vanderbilt. Yes, Vanderbilt.

Mountain Division

1. Air Force

Back from last season’s 10-win team are starting quarterback Haaziq Daniels, top running back Brad Roberts (1,352 yards, 13 TDs) and an experienced roster. Plus, Troy Calhoun returns for his 16th season, and he’s used to having a Falcons team no one else wants to play. The Falcons at 6-2 tied for first in the division last season, and they should be right up there again. Behind the always tough-to-defend triple option offense, the Falcons easily led the nation in rushing last year, averaging 327.7 yards per game. Give them the lead, and good luck coming back.

2. Boise State

The Broncos went 7-5 last season under first-year coach Andy Avalos, which for that program would be like the Warriors missing the playoffs. Boise State’s fan base is used to competing for Mountain West championships, and there will be considerable unrest if that doesn’t happen this season. With Hank Bachmeier (3,079 yards, 20 TDs) back at quarterback, the Broncos should contend if they properly answer questions at running back and wide receiver. Boise State’s defense gave up a league-best 19 points per game.

3. Utah State

If the Aggies don’t lose half their roster at top-ranked Alabama on Saturday, they should be able to give Air Force and Boise State a run for a spot in the conference title game. Utah State showed that promise in its opener, rallying for a 31-20 victory over Connecticut, amassing 542 yards and forcing three turnovers. Seventh-year senior – you read that right – Logan Bonner is rolling with 26 touchdown passes and four interceptions in his past eight games.

4. Colorado State

Norvell stayed in the conference by leaving Nevada after last season for Fort Collins. He brought in 15 transfers and 54 newcomers overall. Even in this time of college free agency, those are big numbers to try to establish chemistry. The probable starting quarterback is redshirt freshman Clay Millen. Norvell might get it done at Colorado State, but don’t expect it to happen this season.

5. Wyoming

You knew the Cowboys were in trouble when coach Craig Bohl took to social media to find a quarterback. He found one in Utah State transfer Andrew Beasley, but Wyoming’s opening 38-6 loss at Illinois did little to ease concerns about the position or the team itself. Beasley was 5 of 20 for 30 yards.

6. New Mexico

Coach Danny Gonzales scoffed at the media’s last-place prediction, and to be fair, media predictions should be taken as seriously as the final scores of NFL preseason games. But given the Lobos were last nationally in 2021 with 235.3 and 12.2 points per game, they won’t get the benefit of the doubt until proven otherwise.

Mountain West championship

Fresno State over Air Force

Haener is too much for the Falcons, and Tedford wins another conference title.