NASCAR playoff predictions: First 4 out, championship and sleeper picks

Sixteen drivers, 10 races, three elimination rounds, and when it’s all over, NASCAR will crown its newest Cup Series champ at Phoenix Raceway in November.

The 2022 NASCAR playoffs open with the Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway on Sunday in the first of three races before the championship-contending field is shaved down to the top-12 drivers. Three more races, and it’ll shrink to eight and eventually down to the final Championship 4 at Phoenix.

The regular season delivered parity with the debut of the Next-Gen car, and there were 16 different winners this season, 15 of whom are in the playoffs. So although Chase Elliott and defending champ Kyle Larson are among the favorites, anything can happen.

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“I definitely think there’s favorites,” Larson said Monday. “But there’s a lot of craziness that’s happened all year long, even though I’ve got favorites, I’m not confident in anything just because of how wild and inconsistent the season has been for so many people.

“So I think I think you look at us as being a favorite. I think you can look at Chase obviously. In my opinion, Ross Chastain. I would say us three probably, and definitely the Gibbs guys that are in the playoffs. There’s there’s a lot of tracks I think in the playoffs that suit you know their cars and setups very well.”

Larson has his picks, and so do we. So ahead of the playoffs opener at Darlington, here are our NASCAR predictions for the first four drivers out, the champion and a sleeper pick.

(All stats according to Racing-Reference.info and DriverAverages.com.)