Two Big Questions If Knicks Get Donovan Mitchell
The potential addition of the All-Star presents a couple of key questions for New York.
With RJ Barrett being on the cusp of finalizing a nine-figure contract extension with the Knicks, and the notion of him being included in a deal for Jazz All-Star Donovan Mitchell becoming a more remote possibility, it allows us a firmer sense of what New York’s lineup might look like if and when the clubs can finally settle on a trade package.
In some ways, though, it also presents a couple of key questions for Barrett, coach Tom Thibodeau and the Knicks’ front office as a whole—all of whom would carry greater expectations heading into the 2022–23 campaign. And with that in mind, we dug into the two biggest curiosities we’d have if New York deals for Mitchell in the next month and a half.
What would Barrett’s role be?
As disappointing as last season was for the Knicks, who went from being a surprise No. 4 seed in 2021 to failing to even make the play-in round in ’22, Barrett provided stretches that offered reason to believe he’s capable of carrying greater weight on his shoulders.
Specifically, he had a 14-game run following the All-Star break in which he averaged 26.5 points, 6.4 boards and 3.9 assists—something he accomplished before even turning 22. He also did it largely through getting to the line more often (closer to nine times per night), a welcome sign as his efficiency from the field still has room for improvement.
During that portion of the season and in spates throughout the campaign, Barrett illustrated a greater comfort in getting to his right hand and finishing on the right side of the basket, and took greater advantage of defenses that failed to get back in transition. He again was left with a less-than-perfect scenario at the point-guard position after the Kemba Walker experiment flamed out early in the year, instead putting Alec Burks in that setup role.
With that in mind, there’s no question that Barrett can benefit from playing alongside a couple of guards who are scoring threats, but who also are used to finding teammates in kick-out situations. Where there is a question, though, is within the role. If Mitchell joins the Knicks—and does so with Barrett and Julius Randle staying put—where does Barrett land in the team’s pecking order offensively? Second? Third? Fourth, even?
Mitchell, one of the league’s most prodigious scorers, had a 32.2% usage rate, one of the NBA’s highest last season. So it’s fair to assume he’d be the top dog, eating up the greatest share of possessions. And while Jalen Brunson’s usage wasn’t nearly as high last year, it’s worth keeping in mind that he shared the court with Luka Dončić, whose 36.8% usage mark was the league’s highest among wings. When Brunson played without Luka, the point guard was at 26.6%—along the lines of what Randle (27.9) and Barrett (26.8) enjoyed last year.
Regardless of how the rates break down, it seems highly likely that Barrett will have the ball in his hands less often when playing with the starting five—a fascinating dynamic given the extension that’s being finalized between him and the Knicks. On some level, it could be seen as a positive that better table-setters would be in tow. Yet Barrett isn’t a knockdown shooter, and without a three-point specialist projected to be among the starters to help the team’s spacing, it’s not as if having the youngster standing along the three-point line would yield him better efficiency on its own. He still needs more opportunities as a playmaker. (Maybe some of that could come by playing a decent portion of his minutes with the team’s second unit?)
Watch NBA live with fuboTV: Start a free trial today.
Barrett has salary escalators in his deal that are triggered by making the All-Star team and earning other leaguewide honors. That’s part of what makes a possible Mitchell acquisition (on top of the Brunson signing) so interesting: it’s almost certain that Barrett’s attempts, and perhaps Barrett’s scoring even, would see a decrease in light of who all would be joining the team. The Knicks’ hope would be that his looks improve because of the increase in offensive talent around him.
It’s a gamble of sorts: In opting to go this route—holding on to Barrett, and instead looking to deal a boatload of first-round picks for Mitchell—they’re banking on their youngster becoming a star and perhaps relinquishing most of their draft-pick war chest to be able to acquire another one beyond Mitchell in the future. But if you want Barrett to flourish into an unquestioned star, he’ll presumably need more chances to handle the ball himself.
Wendell Cruz/USA TODAY Sports
What happens to the defense if Mitchell is brought in?
There is at least one thing we can assume about Barrett’s role if Mitchell is brought in: He’ll almost certainly have to be at his best as a help defender given who he’ll be playing behind.
If you witnessed Brunson’s postseason outburst several months back, or if you watched the Jazz on any given night, you likely saw bits and pieces of how absent Mitchell can be on the defensive side of the ball. In the words of The Ringer’s Dan Devine: he got “flame-broiled in the opening round of the playoffs.” (He certainly wasn’t alone in this regard. But to be clear: He often was the worst offender, and it left Rudy Gobert and other Jazz players having to put out fires on the back side.)
One of the clearest flaws of a club featuring Mitchell and Brunson would be the nightly size disadvantage the Knicks would find themselves with. Both Brunson and Mitchell—each of whom are known more for their offense—stand just 6'1". From a statistical standpoint, Dallas was 5.1 points worse per 100 possessions defensively this past year when Brunson was on the floor. The Jazz were 6.5 points worse per 100 with Mitchell on the court.
While the tandem would be undersized, it isn’t fair to Brunson to put him in Mitchell’s category—right near the bottom of the league in a handful of metrics—defensively. Brunson at least gives consistent effort on that end. He does his part to fight around screens, and led the Mavericks in two of the last three seasons in taking charges, including 17 last season, which was good for ninth in the league. And when Dallas pulled off the playoff upset over top-seeded Phoenix, much of it was because the Suns guards struggled to score as the series wore on. Yes, Dončić got much of the credit there for showing much greater effort and attention to detail. But Brunson was a factor as well in making life far more difficult for Devin Booker and Chris Paul.
A big, athletic rim protector like Mitchell Robinson could help clean up some of the messes that are made at the top of the key. But as we saw with Gobert and the Jazz, if opposing guards get free lanes to the rim, it’s going to open up an abundance of shots—including ones worth more points—elsewhere all over the court.
It’s part of the reason why the Knicks are so intent on keeping 6'5" Quentin Grimes, their best defending guard, if they can. And it also explains where Barrett can be extraordinarily valuable this season, even if he is a third or fourth option at times within the offense. Because New York will desperately need his defense if and when Mitchell actually becomes a Knick.
More NBA Coverage: