Nearly beating No. 1 Alabama means its the perfect time to fade Texas in Week 3

How about those Texas Longhorns?

Facing the top-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide (-20.5)—and essentially every public bettor in existence—head coach Steve Sarkisian nearly became the third-ever former Nick Saban assistant to defeat his old boss. And that was despite losing elite quarterback Quinn Ewers to a shoulder injury in the first quarter.

No big deal for the Longhorns. They simply inserted backup Hudson Card and relied on a defense that kept the Tide at bay for nearly four quarters. Alabama wound up winning 20-19 but that’s just because Texas ran out of time, per Sarkisian. Voters for the AP Top 25 seemed to agree. Even with the loss at home, Texas went from unranked to No. 21 in the latest poll.

And with unranked UTSA up next in Week 3 that means there’s only one thing to do….Fade Texas.

Fade the Longhorns hard. Don’t even look in their direction. Grab the Roadrunners while they’re still double-digit underdogs and shout “meep meep” all the way to the bank.

 

If you were one of the lucky ones who grabbed UTSA +12.5 when the line opened up, congratulations, because it sure didn’t last long. Within hours the points started shifting away from Texas and it’s not hard to see why. This isn’t just about a potential letdown game—though that potential certainly exists. This is about a UTSA team that’s 2-0 against the spread and took No. 24 Houston to overtime in a 37-35 loss before beating Army, 41-38, in Week 2. The Roadrunners rank 11th in FBS passing yards (348 per game) are allowing just 190 yards rushing per game and have yet to turn the ball over.

But let’s go back to that idea of a letdown game for a moment. Looking at the last few times Texas thought it was “back” over the previous years is all the evidence you need to convince yourself the Longhorns, in fact, are not.

In 2021, after beating No. 23 Louisiana in Week 1, Texas was a -5.5 favorite at Arkansas in week 2. The Longhorns lost, 40-21. In 2020, Texas lost to Oklahoma, 53-45 in four overtimes, then pushed as an 11-point favorite against Baylor the following week. In 2019, Texas covered +11.5 against Oklahoma only to squeak out a two-point victory against Kansas the following week as 20-point favorites—kicking off a stretch where Texas went 1-4 against the spread. In 2018, Texas beat OU as a seven-point favorite, then failed to cover the spread each of the next three games against Baylor, Oklahoma State and West Virginia (a push).

Now remember that Ewers will be out for 4-6 weeks and Card will make just his third career start against a team that has a full week to prepare for him.

Action Network is already tracking a much bigger handle on UTSA than the Longhorns. While Texas has received 60 percent of all bets on the spread, 88 percent of the early money is on UTSA to cover.

This is very likely to become a shootout in Austin. If that’s the case, any line that has UTSA as double-digit underdogs is worth grabbing immediately. It may not stay like that for long.