Week 5 Dynasty Stock Watch
Dynasty buy, sell, hold and trade advice for Kyle Pitts, D.J. Moore and David Njoku.
Now about a quarter of the way through the 2022 season, we have a good idea of where we stand in our dynasty leagues. You know if you got lucky or unlucky one week. You know if a couple bad injuries will put you in a tough position to make a playoff run. It’s okay to be optimistic, but if your team has close to the fewest points scored after four games then it’s time to really evaluate your roster.
Is your team chock full of desirable veterans? Should you consider a rebuild and begin trading for picks? Are you good, but not great and want to make a run at a player or two to put your closer to a title run? If you haven’t already, you should try to keep an open conversation running with your leaguemates. What are their rebuild intentions? How valuable are rookie picks in their opinion? And I know it can be hard, but do not be a sarcastic smartass if you get a “bad” trade offer. Make counter offers and avoid showing that you are nonplussed. As a confessed and mostly reformed sarcastic smartass, it will never work in your favor.
In last week's Dynasty Stock Watch, I went out on the lamest of limbs by recommending you pursue Chris Olave, avoid "Return of the Mack" Hollins and be wary of boom-or-bust Rashod Bateman performances. This week, I’ll try to be a little more bold with some notable superstars.
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TE Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons
I hope by now we can all agree that Kyle Pitts is really good. So if you're considering selling him, I have to disagree. And I hope we can also agree that his production to start the 2022 season, even if it persists over the next few months, is because of scheme and not talent. In dynasty, we often overlook how an offense operates from one season to the next.
For example, notice how the Dolphins are using (or not using) tight end Mike Gesicki. While Gesicki isn’t comparable in pure talent, he is another example of a tight end more built to be a pass-catcher, rather than a blocker. This one-dimensional play style made them viable fantasy weapons, but in their new offensive schemes, it appears they’re on the outside looking in. Miami’s new offense isn’t prioritizing his involvement (eight catches for 71 yards and a touchdown in four games). I believe a similar lack of involvement is happening in Atlanta given how the Falcons’ offense is schemed.
Through four games, the Falcons have 131 carries, fifth-most in the NFL. Their 672 rushing yards and 36 rushing first downs both rank fourth.
In my Week 2 Cheat Sheet article, I talked about how I was intrigued by Atlanta's offensive approach:
What struck me, though, is the game plan of the Falcons offense. They were using the pistol, there were a lot QB rollouts to move the pocket, pre-determined QB runs and it was a bit all over the place. Marcus Mariota is not Matt Ryan and that was evident in this game. ... I understand the enthusiasm around Cordarrelle Patterson, and ... rookie Tyler Allgeier may be forced into a larger role."
Like I discussed with Bateman, there’s only so much a big-play threat can do. Pitts’s usage is a decline, playing 67% and 62% of snaps over the last two games, while tight end Parker Hesse played 75% and 87% over that same stretch. With a 14.5 aDOT, Pitts leads the league in that category among tight ends with at least 55 routes run. However, his 87 routes run is tied for 21st and it’s hard to make an impact when you’re only running ~20 routes per game. Even if you believe Pitts is better than his production, the Falcons’ approach puts a hard cap on his potential.
Trading Pitts right now is only a viable strategy is someone is willing to pay close to what his value was months ago. Trading Pitts now only sells yourself short for short-term gains. You'd be selling low and I feel a bounce-back is inevitable in the long-term future. Even if the Falcons are committed to the run and Pitts has a bad 2022, he has a boatload of real-life trade value and could be traded since he doesn't fit with how the Falcons want to play. We also have to assume Pitts will be in the league for another decade and managers may need to eat a down year and keep their fingers crossed he returns to form because of a coach/scheme/team change. Although his dynasty trade value is down, I'm not budging on price point.
Price check: 2023 early 1st and 2023 late 1st
Win-now: Buy/Hold
Rebuild: Buy/Hold
WR DJ Moore, Carolina Panthers
Through four games, Baker Mayfield has one "big time throw" as graded by PFF. Only Matt Ryan has a worse big time throw rate among quarterbacks with at least 30 throws this season. Mayfield is tied for 29th in aDOT (6.7), 29th in passer rating (74.4) and pressured 43 times (t-20th) among QBs with at least 40 dropbacks. What's notable about that pressure total is it's better compared to the league average, but of those pressures, Mayfield has been sacked 11 times for a 25.6 pressure-to-sack rate (sixth-worst among the same group of QBs).
This begins to demonstrate the uphill climb for DJ Moore so far this season. Luckily, Mayfield is only under contract for 2022 and will be a free agent this offseason. So I suppose dynasty managers need to be on board with Matt Corral and his recovery from a Lisfranc tear in his left foot.
All things considered, I like Moore's fundamentals. Despite a couple nice moments from Robbie Anderson, I believe Moore is the better player. The Panthers’ best young receivers—Terrace Marshall, Laviska Shenault and Shi Smith—appear to be more role players rather than superstars who could overtake Moore long-term. Christian McCaffrey is a good problem to have as defenses will always be keyed on him. Dynasty managers are just stuck with Mayfield for another few months and hopefully Matt Rhule follows closely behind.
I don't mind trading Moore if you're in a win-now situation as long as you understand that his underperforming may only last one season. And it's very likely he'll see a rebound in value with a regime or QB change. But I'm also not so confident that I would want to buy him, even at this reduced cost. He's never been elite and I'm not going to trade for a player I believe is at his best as a middle-of-the-road WR2 with a second-year quarterback coming off a serious injury. Incremental improvement seems more likely, rather than a revamp or second wind being found heading into next season.
Price check: 2023 late 1st
Win-now: Hold/Sell
Rebuild: Hold
Random Dynasty Thoughts
• David Njoku is a nice buy or hold with even more short-term upside. He finally seems to be rounding into shape. Pass-catchers often have unique chemistry depending on their quarterback, so I’m going to assume there’s no drop-off when Deshaun Watson returns later in the year from his suspension. Njoku has 112 routes run, 14th-most among tight ends and Jacoby Brissett has a 119.9 passer rating targeting Njoku. Let’s see more of a good thing.
• For those who follow my work, I talked a big game with George Pickens through the offseason and then pumped the brakes right before the season began. I felt managers would have to be patient as Pickens was third on the receiver depth chart with Mitch “Oof” Trubisky under center. Now, two things have changed: Kenny Pickett is the starter and I believe Pickens has overtaken Chase Claypool as the Steelers No. 2 receiver. I was never off the bandwagon. Let's go.
• The 2023 1.01 overall pick in rookie drafts next year has been locked in with Texas running back Bijan Robinson for as long as I can remember. The debate I feel beginning to take shape and worth having is where the drop-off really occurs. Like in this past year’s rookie drafts, I often heard it was after the fifth pick or as far deep as the ninth pick. I believe the drop-off is a touch higher in 2023. My next two prospects are the quarterbacks from Alabama and Ohio State, Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud, in that order. After that third pick, there is a drop-off. No receivers have yet to break into that barrier but a lot can change over the next 6 or 7 months.
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