NFL Week 5 Betting Guide: Matchups, Spreads and Odds for SI Sportsbook Perfect 10

Betting analysis of the 10 games featured in the Week 5 edition of SI Sportsbook’s Perfect 10 contest.

Oddsmakers are less confident in NFL home teams in Week 5 than in previous weeks with SI Sportsbook’s free Perfect 10 contest featuring a card listing only six home teams as the betting favorite among the 10-game slate.

The weekly game requires bettors to make 10 selections against the spread for a chance at a share of a $10,000 prize. Every bettor who picks at least six games correctly, will be awarded consolation prizes in the form of free bets.

This week’s contest features seven games listed with point spreads of at least 4.5 points. Of the four biggest favorites on the card, the Bills (-14.5), Jaguars (-6.5) and Buccaneers (-6.5) have the luxury of playing at home, while the Eagles (-5.5) are the largest road favorite in the contest against the Cardinals.

Simply backing home teams continues to be a toss-up for bettors through 63 games (one international game) as teams playing in front of their home faithful are 33-29-1 (53.2%) straight-up (SU). Grabbing the points has been quite lucrative as underdogs have posted a solid 36-25-2 (59.0%) against the spread (ATS) mark, while betting on the under has rewarded bettors with a 37-26-1 (58.7%) record.

After Monday night’s low-scoring affair between the Rams and 49ers, the under is now 9-4 in all nationally televised primetime games.

Let’s take a quick look at the contest lines!

Texans (0-3-1; 2-1-1 ATS) vs. Jaguars (2-2; 2-2 ATS)

Moneyline: Houston (+275) | Jacksonville (-350)
Spread: HOU +7 (-125) | JAX -7 (+105)
Total: 44.5 – Over: (-110) | Under (-110)
Game Info: Oct. 9, 2022 | 1 p.m. ET | CBS

PERFECT 10 CONTEST LINE: HOU +6.5 | JAX -6.5

PERFECT 10 Breakdown: The Texans have won eight consecutive games against the Jaguars with a corresponding 6-2 ATS mark. However, as we know, all streaks come to an end. Jacksonville appears poised to end the winless drought in the AFC South divisional rivalry and finds itself placed in an unfamiliar role. The last time oddsmakers made the Jaguars at least a touchdown favorite occurred in Week 8 of the 2019 season. In that matchup, Jacksonville was a seven-point home favorite against the Jets and emerged with a 29-15 victory. Bettors need to decide if the Jaguars can cover the big demand for the first time in 45 games?

Bears (2-2; 1-2-1 ATS) vs. Vikings (3-1; 1-3 ATS)

Moneyline: Chicago (+260) | Minnesota (-333)
Spread: CHI +7.5 (-118) | MIN -7.5 (+100)
Total: 43.5 – Over(-110) | Under (-110)
Game Info: Oct. 9, 2022 | 1 p.m. ET | Fox

PERFECT 10 CONTEST LINE: CHI +5.5 | MIN -5.5

PERFECT 10 Breakdown: The Bears have wins over the 49ers and the Texans, but bettors need to be cognizant of historical futility. Chicago is 1-5 ATS over its last six road games and a a disappointing 3-13 ATS over its last 16 games against NFC North opponents. On the flip side, the Vikings, despite being 3-1 SU, have not been a good team to back at the window, covering just once against the number in four games. Players in the Perfect 10 find a one-point relief with only a 5.5-point spread on a Vikings club that is 4-1 ATS in the last five games against Chicago.

Chargers (2-2; 3-1 ATS) vs. Browns (2-2; 2-2 ATS)

Moneyline: Los Angeles (-154) | Cleveland (+130)
Spread: LAC -2.5 (-125) | CLE +2.5 (+105)
Total: 47.5 – Over -110) | Under (-110)
Game Info: Oct. 9, 2022 | 1 p.m. ET | CBS

PERFECT 10 CONTEST LINE: LAC -1.5 | CLE +1.5

PERFECT 10 Breakdown: The Chargers snapped a two-game losing streak with a win and cover last week on the road against the Texans. Los Angeles now hits the road for the third time in four games against a Browns squad that came up short last week against the Falcons. Oddsmakers like what they saw from Justin Herbert and Austin Ekeler in Week 4 and the strong production has led to this line steaming up to a 2.5-point demand in early wagering. These two clubs met last season in Week 5 with the Chargers winning, 47-42, as 2.5-point home favorites.

Falcons (2-2; 4-0 ATS) vs. Buccaneers (2-2; 2-2 ATS)

Moneyline: Atlanta (+310) | Tampa Bay (-400)
Spread: ATL +8.5 (-110) | TB -8.5 (-110)
Total: 48 – Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Game Info: Oct. 9, 2022 | 1 p.m. ET | Fox

PERFECT 10 CONTEST LINE: ATL +7.5 | TB -7.5

PERFECT 10 Breakdown: Despite falling to the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football, Tom Brady and the Buccaneers’ offense looked more in sync with the return of the club’s top offensive weapons. Brady, who is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS against Atlanta since joining Tampa Bay, faces a Falcons club that has been a great team to back over the first month of the season. The Falcons are the only team that is a perfect 4-0 ATS this season. Both teams, who have posted solid offensive output through four weeks, offer solid value on the game total. The the over is 8-2 between these two NFC South rivals in the last 10 meetings.

Seahawks (2-2; 2-2 ATS) vs. Saints (1-3; 1-3 ATS)

Moneyline: Seattle (+188) | New Orleans (-225)
Spread: SEA +5.5 (-110) | NO -5.5 (-110)
Total: 45.5 – Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Game Info: Oct. 9, 2022 | 1 p.m. ET | Fox

PERFECT 10 CONTEST LINE: SEA +4.5 | NO -4.5

PERFECT 10 Breakdown: Don’t look now but Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith is a top-10 fantasy quarterback. Let that sink in for a minute. Smith has thrown for 320-plus yards and multiple touchdowns in consecutive weeks and in Week 5 he will face a Saints club that has lost three straight games. Bettors need to monitor the status of running back Alvin Kamara, wide receiver Michael Thomas and quarterback Jameis Winston, who all missed Week 4 against the Vikings.

Steelers (1-3; 1-2-1 ATS) vs. Bills (3-1; 2-1-1 ATS)

Moneyline: Pittsburgh (+600) | Buffalo (-901)
Spread: PIT +13.5 (+100) | BUF -13.5 (-118)
Total: 47 Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Game Info: Oct. 9, 2022 | 1 p.m. ET | CBS

PERFECT 10 CONTEST LINE: PIT +14.5 | BUF -14.5

PERFECT 10 Breakdown: The Steelers, who are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games, have lost three straight games. After blowing a 10-point fourth-quarter lead to the Jets at home last week, Pittsburgh turns to rookie Kenny Pickett on the road against the AFC East-leading Bills. After coming back from a 20-3 deficit to beat the Ravens on the road, Buffalo will head back home to Highmark Stadium. The Bills, who are 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS mark over their last four home games, have thrived when oddsmakers install them as overwhelming favorites. A deeper dive reveals that Buffalo is 5-1-1 over its last seven games as double-digit favorites.

Dolphins (3-1; 3-1 ATS) vs. Jets (2-2; 2-2 ATS)

Moneyline: Miami (-175) | New York (+145)
Spread: MIA -3.5 (+100) | New York +3.5 (-118)
Total: 44 – Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Game Info: Oct. 9, 2022 | 1 p.m. ET | CBS

PERFECT 10 CONTEST LINE: MIA -2.5 | NYJ +2.5

PERFECT 10 Breakdown: Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) has already been ruled out. In his place, the Dolphins turn to veteran Teddy Bridgewater. Miami is 7-1-1 ATS over its last nine games versus New York and a perfect 4-0 ATS in its last four trips to MetLife Stadium. The Jets, who were 0-2 SU and ATS at home with Joe Flacco, return home with Zach Wilson under center. In his first game this season, Wilson led the Jets to a late fourth-quarter comeback victory at Pittsburgh. The second-year quarterback has proven to be a solid investment at the window, covering the number in five of his last eight starts.

49ers (2-2; 2-2 ATS) vs. Panthers (1-3; 1-3 ATS)

Moneyline: San Francisco (-275) | Carolina (+225)
Spread: SF -6.5 (-110) | CAR +6.5 (-110)
Total: 39.5 – Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Game Info: Oct 9, 2022 | 4:05 p.m. ET | Fox

PERFECT 10 CONTEST LINE: SF +0.5 | CAR -0.5

PERFECT 10 Breakdown: The 49ers’ defense was dominant Monday, sacking Matthew Stafford seven times while also returning an interception for a touchdown. San Francisco is 9-4 ATS over its last 13 games dating back to last season and will face a Matt Rhule-led Panthers squad that is a paltry 3-15 ATS over its last 18 regular-season games. Carolina is 1-10 SU over its last 11 games but is a 0.5-point home favorite in the contest, making them the clear team to fade in this week’s Perfect 10 contest. SI Sportsbook has San Francisco as a 5.5-point road favorite after its impressive win against the defending Super Bowl champions.

Cowboys (3-1; 3-1 ATS) vs. Rams (2-2; 1-3 ATS)

Moneyline: Dallas (+175) | LA Rams (-213)
Spread: DAL +4.5 (-110) | LAR -4.5 (-110)
Total: 43.5 – Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Game Info: Oct. 9, 2022 | 4:25 p.m. ET | Fox

PERFECT 10 CONTEST LINE: DAL +4.5 | LAR -4.5

PERFECT 10 Breakdown: Cooper Rush is 3-0 filling in for Dak Prescott, but the Cowboys’ starting quarterback could be returning from his thumb injury in Week 5. The Cowboys have been a great team to back away from AT&T Stadium, owning a five-game road winning streak that also finds a corresponding 5-0 ATS mark. The Rams, who were beaten, 24-9, by the 49ers on Monday Night Football, have now fallen to 1-5 ATS over their last six regular-season games dating back to last season. Los Angeles has also not been a solid investment at SoFi Stadium, only covering the spread twice over their last seven home games.

Eagles (4-0; 3-1 ATS) vs. Cardinals (2-2; 2-2 ATS)

Moneyline: Philadelphia (-225) | Arizona (+188)
Spread: PHI -5.5 (-110) | ARZ +5.5 (-110)
Total: 49.5 – Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Game Info: Oct. 9, 2022 | 1 p.m. ET | Fox

PERFECT 10 CONTEST LINE: PHI -5.5 | ARZ +5.5

PERFECT 10 Breakdown: This spread has witnessed the biggest adjustment from early look-ahead lines released over the summer as the Eagles have moved from two-point underdogs to five-point road favorites. Philadelphia, the last undefeated team, faces an Arizona club that has lost seven consecutive home games with a corresponding 0-7 ATS mark. The Eagles, led by Jalen Hurts and Miles Sanders, rank second in the NFC in scoring, averaging 28.8 points per game.

Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.

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