Forde-Yard Dash: Seven Potential CFP Spoilers

These teams aren’t playing for much beyond pride and a mid-tier bowl berth. But they could still send a contender’s season off the rails.

Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football, where the Curse of the Turnover Chain has been inflicted upon Miami. The Hurricanes committed eight turnovers against Duke—one short of the ACC record—in their first season since retiring the godfather of turnover trinkets:

MORE DASH: Congrats, You’re Stuck | CFP Pros & Cons | Future Head Coaches

FOURTH QUARTER

AGENTS OF CHAOS!

Seven teams that are not having the seasons they aspired to, but can still inflict maximum upheaval on the College Football Playoff and/or conference championship races. There is a lot still to play for, if you like the idea of your disappointing team throwing soup on someone else’s masterpiece season. The list:

ACC: Louisville (31). The Cardinals are 4–4 but showing some signs of life, with their first back-to-back victories of the season. After falling behind Virginia 10–0 on Oct. 8 and appearing headed to 2–5 (and perhaps getting Scott Satterfield fired in the process), Louisville has outscored its opponents 58–17.

Which seasons could the Cardinals wreck: Wake Forest and Clemson. Louisville hosts 6–1 Wake on Saturday and visits 8–0 Clemson Nov. 12. Both are still in the playoff hunt, although the Tigers are certainly more viable than the Demon Deacons.

Chances of creating chaos: With this Louisville team, expecting the unexpected is the best course of action. Give the Cardinals a shot against Wake, although their ability to slow Sam Hartman and the Deacons’ passing game is in question. As for Clemson: Louisville is 0–7 against the ACC big dogs since joining the league. Don’t count on it.

Big 12: Iowa State (32). The Cyclones (3–4) are the heartbreak kids of the heartland, losing four games by a total of 14 points—just the second team since 1980 to suffer four consecutive conference losses by 14 or fewer (Purdue in 2004 is the other). They’re overdue to win a few, and the conference is tightly bunched.

Which seasons could the Cyclones wreck: Oklahoma State (6–1) and TCU (7–0), both of which are in both the CFP and Big 12 championship hunt. Both games are on the road, Nov. 12 against the Cowboys and Nov. 26 against the Horned Frogs.

Chances of creating chaos: Pretty good. Iowa State has won at least five league games in each of the last five seasons, and consistency has been a hallmark of the program under Matt Campbell. But they’ve got to perform on the road, having lost five straight Big 12 games away from Ames.

(West Virginia has a chance to create even more chaos, with games remaining against all three of the top teams in the league: TCU, Oklahoma State and Kansas State. But the Mountaineers might be less equipped for the chaos role than Iowa State.)

Big Ten: Michigan State (33). The Spartans (3–4) might have gotten some mojo back by beating Wisconsin in overtime Oct. 15. That at least stopped the bleeding on a four-game losing streak.

Which seasons could the Spartans wreck: Michigan (7–0) and Illinois (6–1). They play those teams on successive Saturdays, the Wolverines this week and the Illini Nov. 5. Illinois leads the Big Ten West outright and Michigan is tied for the lead in the East with Ohio State.

Chances of creating chaos: Unlikely. Michigan State has lost four straight road games—all of them by double digits, all of them games in which the Spartans never led. This weekend in the Big House seems especially daunting.

Pac-12: The Bay Area Consortium (34). California and Stanford, both 3–4, have a combined five games remaining against the four leaders of the Pac-12 pack. The Cardinal are on a two-game winning streak, and the Golden Bears have three losses by seven points.

Which seasons could Cal and Stanford ruin: The Golden Bears host Oregon (6–1), visit USC (6–1) and visit UCLA (6–1). The Cardinal visit both UCLA and Utah (5–2).

Chances of creating chaos: The Dash is calling it—either Cal or Stanford pulls off at least one shocker in five tries. Cal catches both the Ducks and Bruins at fortuitous times: Oregon comes to Berkeley on Saturday trying to avoid a letdown after the big game with UCLA; the Bruins then visit Berkeley to end the season after the rivalry game against USC. Stanford plays UCLA in the Rose Bowl on Saturday after winning two games by a combined three points, then visits Utah Nov. 12.

SEC: Kentucky (35). With two league losses, the Wildcats (5–2) are likely out of the East Division race. But they’ve had an open date to get healthier for a couple of major potential upsets. Nobody else has two remaining games against undefeated teams.

Which seasons could Kentucky ruin: Tennessee (7–0) and Georgia (7–0). The ‘Cats have had two weeks to prep for the Volunteers Saturday, then they get the Bulldogs in Lexington on Nov. 19.

Chances of creating chaos: The Dash would like UK’s chances more if the Tennessee game was in Lexington. The Wildcats do catch Georgia at an opportune point, with the ‘Dogs coming off a run of Florida, Tennessee and a trip to Mississippi State. But it’s hard to see the Kentucky offensive line holding up against Georgia’s defense.

And from the independent ranks: Notre Dame (36). The Fighting Irish (4–3) have some opportunities to salvage their season in the final five games.

Which seasons could Notre Dame ruin: the Irish visit Syracuse (6–1) Saturday, then host Clemson (8–0) Nov. 5 and close at USC (6–1) Nov. 26.

Chances of creating chaos: Maybe? Notre Dame has beaten Syracuse handily four times since 2014, and the Orange have to prove they’ve kept the helium in the balloon after that dispiriting loss to Clemson ended their undefeated start. Last time the Tigers came to South Bend, it was a pandemic classic won in OT by the Irish. And as for USC: Notre Dame has beaten the Trojans four straight seasons, although things have changed drastically for both programs this year.

STAT OF THE WEEK

Miami is 3–4 and has lost three consecutive home games in the same season for the first time since their last season in the Orange Bowl, in 2007. Florida State is 4–3 but riding a three-game losing streak. Florida is 4–3 and a whopping 22-point underdog against rival Georgia this weekend.

So the possibility remains that the former power trio of Power 5 schools from the state of Florida (37) could all end up with losing records. Last time that happened in the same season? Seventy-five years ago. In 1947, The Hurricanes went 2–7–1, the Seminoles went 0–5 (in their first season back competing after a 43-year hiatus) and the Gators went 4–5–1.

COACH WHO EARNED HIS COMP CAR THIS WEEK

Willie Fritz (38), Tulane. The Green Wave (7–1) crashed the top 25 last week for the first time since 1998, then backed up that ranking Saturday by routing Memphis. Tulane led 35–0 at halftime before easing off and winning 38–28. Fritz had done solid work at the school but had to retool his staff a bit after last year’s 2–10 flop. The result is his best team in seven seasons, as the Wave stays on track for a potential showdown with Cincinnati to end the regular season (and perhaps have a rematch the next week in the American Athletic Conference title game).

COACH WHO SHOULD TAKE THE BUS TO WORK

Tom Allen (39), Indiana. He had a great two-year run, going 14–7 in 2019 and ’20 and earning immense popularity with a largely indifferent fan base. But it’s not been pretty since then. Last year the Hoosiers went 2–10, and this year they’re 3–5 and on a 14-game Big Ten losing streak. They appear headed to the basement of the East Division for the second consecutive season, as Indiana regresses to its historical status.

POINT AFTER

When thirsty in the fertile beer territory of Southern California, The Dash recommends a pint from Long Beach-based Trademark Brewing (40). Try the Space Beach IPA and thank The Dash later.

MORE DASH: Congrats, You’re Stuck | CFP Pros & Cons | Future Head Coaches