Rep. Liz Cheney’s Doomsday Prediction For The GOP
Representative Liz Cheney held nothing back during her appearance on NBC’s “Meet The Press” when discussing the Republican Party and its obsession with de facto leader former President Donald Trump. During the interview, the Wyoming congresswoman was very clear – if the Republican Party nominates Donald Trump as its presidential nominee for 2024, it will be the end of the Republican Party (at least as we know it).
“I think that the party has either got to come back from where we are right now, which is a very dangerous and toxic place, or the party will splinter, and there will be a new conservative party that rises,” Rep. Cheney said. A prediction like that is huge. Our country has worked on a majority two-party dynamic for most of its existence. The idea of our major parties splintering into two main factions would be historic. But is the congresswoman right?
Since we can’t actually tell what the future holds, a quick analysis on a couple of items hints at the direction our political parties may be heading towards. For starters, there is undoubtedly a vocal anti-Trump portion within the Republican Party. Rep. Cheney and Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-IL) both serve on the House’s Jan. 6th Committee – and both suffered from it with backlash from their GOP colleagues. Cheney, who serves as the Vice Chair of the committee, lost her primary reelection to a Trump sycophant; Kinzinger did not run for reelection (which he most likely would’ve lost).
There are other big names in the Republican Party who join them with their disdain for Trump. Maryland’s Governor Larry Hogan, former Ohio Governor John Kasich, over 70 top Republican national security officials, and countless others have publicly expressed their opposition to another Donald Trump presidency. Furthermore, after the Jan. 6th Committee’s public hearings almost 60 percent of Americans believe Trump should be indicted for his role.
We also can’t forget about the numerous tell all books that have been written by members of Trump’s own administration and close circle. Beyond that, however, it is harder to see how big of a group the anti-Trump vocalists in the GOP are. Depending on what poll you look at can also bring uncertainty.
According to a recent New York Times/Siena College poll just 1 in 10 Republicans had either a somewhat or unfavorable view of Trump. The same poll showed a stark contrast to those who viewed the ex-president as “very” favorable. However, an AP-NORC poll showed Cheney’s prediction could be a potential outcome, with “roughly 6 in 10 (57%) of Republicans in that poll said that they wanted Trump to run again for president in 2024, while 43% said they did not.”
While not wanting someone to run for president is different from believing a new party should be created for those who don’t support Trump, it’s still hard to tell exactly if Cheney is right. CNN’s reporting of Cheney seems more pessimistic as it noted how she lost her primary election, and that the 2022 primary affirmed Trump’s grasp on the party. Trump endorsed candidates in Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Ohio and North Carolina won their US Senate primaries. In gubernatorial races in Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan the Trump-backed candidates won their primaries and will be on the ballot for the general midterm.
I beg to differ on their conclusion. After working for GOP candidates for two years, I noticed a substantial amount of Republican voters that I spoke with had an exhausting viewpoint on the former president. Secondly, while CNN’s analysis mentions the wins Trump’s chosen candidates have had this year it fails to include a breakdown of the primary races. Each race had a vast amount of Republicans in the primary. Trump has always maintained 30 percent to 35 percent of Republicans as his loyal base. Factoring that in, it makes sense why Trump-backed candidates made it through their primaries with 30 to 35 percent of Republican voter’s support. But how will that play out in a general election when 70 percent of Republican voters wanted the non-Trump candidates as their nominees?
By no means am I saying that Democrats shouldn’t worry that someone like Herschel Walker could be in the US Senate or Tudor Dixon might end up as the HBIC of Michigan, they very well could depending on voter turnout. What I do believe is that it’s possible for Democrats to split the vote from that 70 percent of GOP voters just enough to solidify wins. Lastly, how many modern day American presidents have had groups like The Lincoln Project created to ensure they never get close to any powerful position again with large amo of support nationally? Just one – Donald Trump.
We can’t know for sure if a new conservative political party will rise up from the ashes of the current GOP. We can, however, support Trump dissidents and give them the courage to try.
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