Kurtenbach: It’s 2021 all over again for the Warriors after Steph Curry’s injury
The Warriors just received a big lump of coal in their stockings, just over a week before Christmas.
Steph Curry’s left shoulder injury, sustained Wednesday in Indianapolis, is going to keep the Warriors superstar out of the lineup for at least two weeks.
Yes, he’s out for the Christmas Day game against the Grizzlies.
But knowing the Warriors messaging around injuries — they promise only re-evaluation in two weeks, nothing more — Curry could well be out longer than the seven games prescribed on Thursday.
It’s unlikely that Curry is back before the calendar flips. An absence of double-digit games should be expected.
And with every game Curry misses, the Warriors’ chances of repeating as champions slip.
Because the Warriors didn’t take care of business in the first third of season, the Dubs go into Curry’s absence already in a hole — they have the worst road record in the Western Conference, are barely holding the final play-in tournament seed in, and are under .500 on the season.
Things are not good.
How much worse will it get with Curry out of the lineup?
Considering that the Warriors have won only 10 of 30 games without Curry over the last three years and are 17 points per 100 possessions worse without Curry on the floor this season, this next stretch is likely to be pretty bad.
Strength In Numbers is a nice idea, but in reality, the strength comes from Curry.
Curry will come back, eventually. And knowing him, he’ll return to his MVP form — the same form that is positively responsible for the Warriors having anywhere near a .500 team.
But what kind of hole will he return to?
Chances are it will be fairly prodigious, meaning he’ll have to spend the second half of the season (if he and the Warriors are lucky in his recovery) leading the charge out of it.
This season has already resembled the 2021 campaign – albeit with mercifully less Kelly Oubre. Now it’s eerie.
The Warriors were woeful on the road, they had no idea what to do with James Wiseman, and then Curry picked up an injury 30-something games into the season (remember his tailbone fracture?) with the Dubs holding a mediocre record.
It all combined to leave the team needing a strong, late push to even make the play-in game.
The Warriors made that push in 2021 — they were great down the stretch, shortening their rotation and playing small ball. Curry was phenomenal. But that great play only put them in the play-in tournament. They lost both games in the NBA’s mini-tournament. They had to expend so much energy to even make the postseason (or whatever the play-in tournament is) that they had no gas left in the tank for the tournament itself.
It was a cautionary tale.
One the Warriors didn’t heed, at all, one season removed.
No, instead, the defending champions have treated nearly every game like it didn’t matter this season. They acted as if all they needed to do was show up to the playoffs healthy and they would be in good shape to retain the crown. After all, the Warriors were aggressively mediocre from January on last season.
Of course, that overlooks the fact the Warriors started the season 29-7, not losing back-to-back games until January. Because of that start, Golden State could afford for Curry and Draymond Green to pick up injuries last season.
The 2022-23 Warriors can’t afford anything, much less a serious injury to their best player.
Now, this Warriors’ season isn’t over – this team still has the kind of talent where missing the postseason would be an embarrassment.
But making the postseason is going to take some serious effort, now.
And amid the marathon that is the season, the Warriors’ early-campaign coasting, and now Curry’s injuries mean that the team’s chances of repeating as champions have taken a big — if not fatal — hit. It’s simply too long of a sprint, now.