Week 15 Cheat Sheet: That's Mr. Chigoziem Okonkwo to You
Week 15 is a great time to start Titans TE Chigoziem Okonkwo, and sets up what will be a great preview of his 2023 potential.
Although they won by eight points, the 49ers victory against the Seahawks wasn't as close as the final score indicated. A redemption arc for Kyle Shanahan may be in the cards, as pointed out by Conor Orr. Seattle scored a touchdown with 3:35 left in the fourth quarter to bridge the gap to the eventual final score of 21-13. The 49ers had a Deommodore Lenoir pick-six overturned early in the third quarter on a roughing the passer call against Nick Bosa. He did fall on Geno Smith with his full weight, but the call wasn't clear-cut and fell into this season's recurring narrative of overprotective penalties that seem to treat quarterbacks with kid gloves. That pick-six would've made it 28-3 early in the third quarter but the rout turned into more of a stalemate in the second half.
Brock Purdy remains one of the hottest topics and players in football and for our fantasy purposes, I wouldn't mind riding his hot hand. Too bad I don't have him on any teams that are in the playoffs. As my colleague Jen Piacenti pointed out in her recent QBs with easiest fantasy playoff strength of schedule article, Purdy has choice opponents upcoming in games against the Commanders and Raiders.
I am getting ahead of myself here, but Purdy's arc could be shaping up to follow a similar course to Jeff Hostetler's 1990 run with the Giants after taking over for Phil Simms late in the season. He made the final two starts that season, wins against the Cardinals and Patriots. Then, Hostetler sealed the deal with three straight playoff wins, including an NFC Championship win against the aforementioned 49ers, and finally, a nail-biter one-point win over the Bills in Super Bowl XXV that came down to a missed Scott Norwood field goal with just four seconds left. Could Purdy be on such a path? It's possible. The 49ers haven't missed a beat and the franchise is in the midst of seven-game win streak.
1. Getting Chiggy With It
If you can spell Chigoziem Okonkwo, you're a better person than I. As we've all experienced, the tight end position is what it is this year. One silver lining for me is the budding emergence of Okonkwo. For a passing offense that seemingly has so little right going for it, the rookie out of the University of Maryland has caught six passes for 45 yards and a score last week. He went for 3/35 and 4/68 in his previous two games. That makes three straight games with five or more targets. It ain't much but those are monster numbers, consistent too, for tight ends this year. Okonkwo won't win you your league and you can only trust him as far as you can throw him. It's just important I bang this drum because I think he'll be a much larger factor next season, even if Tennessee opts to make Malik Willis the starter. Okonkwo has eye-popping upside with a 4.52 40 and 35.5 vertical at the combine. There's a full offseason ahead that'll allow him to marinate and I'm excited to see him in these final weeks and into the 2023 season.
2. Week 15 Stick a Fork in 'Em
The "safe to drop Player X” advice bores me, and it's usually too obvious. I'm going after players and teams here, and I'm targeting a player among the top 20 QBs, top 50 RBs, top 60 WRs or top 20 TEs.
My most recent SAFIE, Chiefs WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, had an excellent game in Week 14 with nine catches, 74 yards and a touchdown. But you win some and lose some as I've also highlighted Darrell Henderson, Leonard Fournette, Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Kyler Murray.
RB Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders
I would, wouldn't I? Look, I gotta be bold. If I show up with "oh, you should fade Kenyan Drake," nobody is going to respect that.
Jacobs and the Raiders have upcoming matchups against the Patriots and 49ers. Both defenses are among the top-three in allowing the fewest points to running backs. The other two matchups remaining come against the Steelers and Chiefs. Game script can work against Jacobs in both cases as Pittsburgh is below-average against quarterbacks so it's possible Jacobs never gets a chance to be involved. And against the Chiefs, an early deficit could force the offense to lean more toward Derek Carr and Davante Adams.
I want to put a bow on this section by saying I understand that Jacobs will and probably should never be benched this week or any point for the rest of the season. However, this section is more of a thought experiment—or a journey in fantasy anticipation. It's always possible to get ahead of yourself in this game and you end up playing chess when checkers will suffice. So don't do anything rash like benching one of fantasy's best players this year. At a minimum, if you have Jacobs, you better have your fingers crossed in those games against the Patriots and 49ers.
3. Week 15 Friggin' Bums
Every week, I'll highlight eight players (two at each position) that I like who are rostered in less than 50% of Yahoo leagues. You can think of them as desperation plays or salary punts in DFS contests.
- QB Desmond Ridder, ATL (at NO)
- QB Andy Dalton, NO (vs. ATL)
- RB Michael Carter, NYJ (vs. DET)
- RB Marlon Mack, DEN (vs. ARI)
- WR Zay Jones, JAC (vs. DAL)
- WR DeVante Parker, NE (at LV)
- TE Hunter Henry, NE (at LV)
- TE Chigoziem Okonkwo, TEN (at LAC)
4. Weekly SI Fantasy Must-Reads
Before setting your lineups, make sure you check out some of the world-class fantasy lowdown from our SI Fantasy analysts:
• Week 15 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em: QB| RB | WR | TE | K / DST
• Week 15 Rankings
• Week 15 Projections
• Week 15 Defense vs. Position
• DFS Lineup Optimizer
• Player Props
• NFL Futures
• Waiver Wire Pickups
• League Winners
• League Losers
• NFL DFS Picks
• IDP Waiver Wire Report
• Dynasty Stock Watch
• Fantasy Fallout: Desmond Ridder to Start for Falcons
• Fantasy Playoffs Easiest Strength of Schedule
• QB | RB | WR | TE
• Fantasy Playoffs Toughest Strength of Schedule
• QB | RB | WR | TE
5. FanNation Updates
Welcome to a new addition to the Cheat Sheet... Our friends at FanNation, who are closely tied with teams around the league, will be joining us with some late fantasy-related updates:
Baltimore Ravens
Ravens quarterback Tyler Huntley began the week in concussion protocol after taking a hard hit against the Steelers. However, he was a full participant at practice on Wednesday and Thursday. Huntley will get the start against Cleveland with Lamar Jackson ruled out with a knee injury. Huntley has improved over the past year and this is another opportunity to show he can be a consistent starter in the NFL. ... The Browns have a dominant ground attack led by Nick Chubb, who is ranked third in the NFL with 1,153 yards rushing. The Ravens, however, have been stout in shutting down opposing running backs and are allowing just 81.2 yards rushing per game, which ranks second in the league. Chubb had 91 yards rushing and a touchdown against Baltimore in Week 7. — Todd Karpovich, | Raven Country
Cleveland Browns
The Browns placed LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah on injured reserve this week, further depleting their linebacker corps. They lost fellow LB Sione Takitaki the previous week. … Rookie WR David Bell is listed as questionable, though it’s trending towards him not playing this week. — Pete Smith | Browns Digest
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars may or may not have a questionable tag on Trevor Lawrence this weekend, but he is playing and is set to have his full arsenal of weapons on hand vs. the Cowboys. The big injury to watch is outside linebacker Travon Walker, who has been in a boot this week with a high-ankle injury. If Walker misses the game a week after the best game of his career, the Jaguars’ defense could be in big trouble vs. Dallas’ offense, leading to easy matchups for Cowboys skill players. — John Shipley | Jaguar Report
Green Bay Packers
Coming off their bye, the Packers will be at almost full strength for a must-win Monday night game against the Rams. Notably, their receiver corps will be intact for the first time since Week 2 with the anticipated return of rookie Romeo Doubs. With high-flying rookie Christian Watson, who tied Randy Moss’s NFL rookie record with eight touchdowns the last four games, Doubs and veterans Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb and Sammy Watkins, Green Bay’s offense has a chance to get hot. — Bill Huber | Packer Central / Packers embrace potential of bitter cold vs. Rams
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs’ lone injury issues continue to be at the wide receiver position. K.C. should add firepower soon, though likely not this week. Wide receiver Mecole Hardman (abdomen) started his 21-day practice window this week while remaining on IR, and Kadarius Toney (hamstring - questionable) was limited in practice all week. Star defensive lineman Chris Jones (illness - questionable) missed Friday’s practice, putting his role on Sunday in some doubt. — Joshua Brisco | Arrowhead Report
Pittsburghh Steelers
The Steelers don’t know who will start at quarterback in Week 15 but chances are it’s not Kenny Pickett. The rookie is listed as doubtful for Carolina and remains in concussion protocol heading into the week. As of now, the belief is Mitch Trubisky will start on Sunday, but Mason Rudolph has split reps throughout the week. Either way, expect a limited passing game from the entire Steelers offense this week. — Noah Strackbein | AllSteelers.com