IDP Waiver Wire Report Week 16: Thibodeaux, Morrow

Kayvon Thibodeaux flashed his high IDP potential Sunday and showed why he was the No. 5 pick in the 2022 NFL draft.

I don't know about you, but my IDP teams (I have a lot, don't make me count them, please) mostly crapped the bed in Week 15. What had been a pretty dang good 2022 fantasy regular season for me came undone when it mattered. That's how it goes sometimes. All the right decisions for over three months can go down the drain if a couple key players disappear on any given Sunday. It's okay, you win some and lose some.

It's crazy to think I've been playing fantasy football for about 25 years. My fantasy football "career" could run for the House of Representatives—yes, you have to be 25 to run, and yes, I deliver fantasy information and eighth-grade level social studies information.

Some of the top Week 15 performers kinda came out of nowhere. Jaguars safety Rayshawn Jenkins posted nine solos, nine assists, two PDs, two INTs and a INT return touchdown. That scoring outburst makes up nearly 25 percent of 2022 scoring. That’d be like if Jalen Hurts posted a 95-point game in one week. Not to be outdone on outbursts, the 2022 No. 2 overall pick, Giants DE Kayvon Thibodeaux posted nearly 30 points or 39-percent of his 2022 scoring total. Jenkins is rostered and started in most IDP leagues, but he never scored more than 15 points in any week leading up to Week 15. 

This is all to say that consistency often wins over time, but players who can lay the smack down with a huge point total are tough to beat. Is there a way to be consistent and still have players capable of monster games? Think that's just  as "simple" as having all the best players. This message goes out to the guys who had a letdown Week 15 like me. All we can do as fantasy managers is put ourselves in the best position each and every week. You're doing great if it usually works out in your favor, week after week, season after season. Stay hungry and hit the waiver wire every week to keep that roster churned up.

IDP disclaimer: The wide variety of IDP leagues makes it difficult to pinpoint roster percentages, so not every recommendation may be a good fit for your league. Generally, if you play in a shallow format with a total of 24 or fewer IDP starters across the league (two per team), these recommendations are at least a layer too deep for you. I'm not going to say it doesn't matter what's in this article, but if you're playing in a more shallow IDP format, you can just head over to FantasyPros consensus IDP rankings and that should be plenty. That's all you need. Their rankings are more geared toward a tackle-heavy scoring system. For deeper formats, it's always best to consume a lot of IDP content to get a feel for the landscape from multiple points of view. If you have any IDP waiver or lineup questions, I'm happy to help and you can contact me on Twitter @mattkdelima. Before I offer the latest IDP information, please go back and check the names on the Week 15 IDP waiver wire list.

Note: For each player, I provide a rest of season (ROS) ranking and their percentage of defensive snaps played in their most recent game. For example, Derwin James would be a DB1+, meaning a defensive back ranked 1-12 (DB1) and the plus sign meaning on the high-end (1-4). DL3- would be a defensive lineman ranked 25-36 (DL3) and the minus means on the low-end, specifically 33-36. Recommendation thresholds based on MFL data: DL (less than or equal to 8% rostered), LB (less than or equal to 11% rostered), DB (less than or equal to 7% rostered).

Next week, the IDP intro will focus on Week 1 warriors—guys who blew up early and fell off. And how we can try to better identify and separate the hype from the talent. 

Notable IDP injuries

• Bears LB1 Jack Sanborn (ankle)
• Lions DB1 DeShon Elliott (shoulder)
• Bengals DL1- Sam Hubbard (calf)
• Browns DB3 John Johnson (thigh contusion)
• Cowboys LB4- Leighton Vander-Esch (neck)
• Bengals CB3/DB7 Cam Taylor-Britt (shoulder)
• Ravens DT2+/DL5- Calais Campbell (knee)
• Ravens CB3- Marcus Peters (calf)

More IDP Injuries: Panthers CB C.J. Anderson (ankle), Bears CB Jaylon Johnson (ribs), Raiders LB Darien Butler (ribs), Seahawks DL Bryan Mone (knee), Dolphins LB Keion Crossen (knee)

IDP Waiver Wire Pickups

Defensive Linemen

DE Kayvon Thibodeaux, New York Giants
The rookie showed out against the Commanders with nine solos, three assists, three TFLs, a sack and a forced fumble leading to a fumble recovery touchdown. Even without the score, Thibodeaux would've had a breakout game. Giants fans are hoping this finish to the season is a preview of his 2023 potential. DL7+/LB10-, 79% Week 15 snaps played

DE Jaelan Phillips, Miami Dolphins
Jaelan Phillips extended his sack streak to five games. Over that span he has four sacks but a lack of tackle production is keeping him from being a weekly IDP starter. DL3-/LB7, 77% 

DE Azeez Ojulari, New York Giants
While Thibodeaux was going off this week, Azeez Ojulari had another solid game with two solos, two assists and a sack. He now has 3.5 sacks over his last three games. DL5-/LB8, 81%

DT Zach Sieler, Miami Dolphins
The numbers are never flashy but Zach Sieler remains a criminally under-rostered DT with at least four combined tackles in seven straight games. Sprinkle in TFLs, sacks and more into the stat sheet and you’ DT2/DL7-, 83%

More Defensive Linemen (< 8% rostered on MFL)
Defensive ends: Chandler Jones (LV), Romeo Okwara (DET), Frank Clark (KC), DeShawn Williams (DEN), Carl Granderson (NO), Dayo Odeyingbo (IND), Ryder Anderson (NYG), Jonathan Ledbetter (ARI)

Defensive tackles: Shy Tuttle (NO), Lawrence Guy (NE), Dalvin Tomlinson (MIN), DeMarcus Walker (TEN), Harrison Phillips (MIN), Matt Ioannidis (CAR)

Linebackers

Nicholas Morrow, Chicago Bears
Should Jack Sanborn miss even one game, Nicholas Morrow is worth the add. He was who I believed would be the big winner of Roquan Smith’s departure as he was already the most productive LB behind Smith. In deeper formats, I recommend Joe Thomas if Sanborn is out. LB4-, 100% Week 15 snaps played

Jamin Davis, Washington Commanders
Davis has at least nine combined tackles in four of his last five games. The Commanders are a mess at linebacker and Davis is eating because of it. LB5+, 100%

Denzel Perryman, Las Vegas Raiders
With nine combined tackles in Week 15, Denzel Perryman has at least six combined tackles in his last nine games. The problem is while the tackles are coming in steadily, Perryman provides little else with just two big plays all year. LB3-, 100%

Ja'Whaun Bentley, New England Patriots
Ja’Whaun Bentley has delivered ten combined tackles in his last two games and capped a nice Week 15 game with a sack to go along with six solos, four assists and a TFL. LB5, 91%

More Linebackers (< 11% rostered on MFL)
Jack Sanborn (CHI, injured), Logan Wilson (CIN), Matt Milano (BUF), Shaq Thompson (CAR), Jerome Baker (MIA), Alex Singleton (DEN), Willie Gay (KC), Germaine Pratt (CIN), Josh Uche (NE), Monty Rice (TEN), Damone Clark (DAL), Joe Thomas (CHI), Luke Masterson (LV), Robert Spillane (PIT)

Defensive Backs

S John Johnson, Cleveland Browns
John Johnson should sustain an injury more often which kept him out for a bit. It doesn’t appear to be serious. He had a thigh contusion in Week 15 yet he still managed eight solos, an assist, a forced fumble and recovery and a PD. DB4-, 76% Week 15 snaps played

S Kyle Hamilton, Baltimore Ravens
This inclusion is based on future potential and more to keep him on your radar for 2023. That said, Hamilton had the best game of his young career with six solos, an assist, two TFLs, one sack and a PD. There’s a ton of upside here but temper your expectations if you’re looking for starter stats. Kyle Hamilton’s snap counts still are too unreliable. DB9+, 58%

S Jason Pinnock, New York Giants
With Xavier McKinney out since Week 10 and Adoree Jackson out for a month, the Giants are shuffling their rotation. Pinnock is the most recent beneficiary with three solid games in his last four. DB10, 92%

CB Carlton Davis, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Davis is having a career-best year but it hasn't translated to IDP consistency.  When the tackles come, as they did in Week 15, he is a viable CB2. It also didn't hurt that he added four PDs against Joe Burrow and the Bengals. CB2-/DB7+, 100%

More Defensive Backs (< 7% rostered on MFL)
Safeties: Kerby Joseph (DET), Ryan Neal (SEA), Andrew Adams (TEN), Bopbby McCain (WAS), Jimmie Ward (SF), Kareem Jackson (DEN), Jaylinn Hawkins (ATL), Nasir Adderley (LAC), DeAndre Houston-Carson (CHI), Daxton Hill (CIN)

Cornerbacks: Kader Kohou (MIA), Cam Taylor-Britt (CIN), Jonathan Jones (NE), Zyon Gilbert (NYG), Troy Hill (LAR), Jerry Jacobs (DET), Jaycee Horn (CAR)