SI:AM | Underdogs Face Stiff Challenges in CFP Semis
Can any of them pull off the upset?
Good morning, I’m Dan Gartland. Here is a friendly reminder to double-check your lineups for fantasy football championship week. (I started an injured Tony Pollard, because I decided to see a movie instead of watching Thursday Night Football.) We’ll be back in your inbox on Tuesday, Jan. 3.
In today’s SI:AM:
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Make your New Year’s plans accordingly
If you’re trying to decide between going to a New Year’s Eve party tomorrow night and staying home to watch the College Football Playoff semifinals, remember this: Historically, the semis have stunk. Of the 16 semifinal games, only three have been decided by one score. In eight of them, the losing team has failed to score more than two touchdowns. Will this year be different?
Thanks to a chaotic final two weeks of the regular season, there is little debate over which teams deserved to be among the final four. Of those four, two—Michigan and Georgia—have emerged as the cream of the crop. They’re the only two undefeated teams in the nation and have hardly been challenged over the course of their dominant runs. The other two semifinalists—TCU and Ohio State—are worthy participants, but will they be able to keep up with the undefeated juggernauts?
No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 3 TCU (Fiesta Bowl, 4 p.m. ET on ESPN)
The 12–1 Horned Frogs haven’t forged the straightest path to the CFP. They’ve beaten every team on their schedule (their only loss came in overtime in the Big 12 championship game against Kansas State, which they beat at home in October) even if those wins haven’t always been convincing. TCU’s double-overtime win over Oklahoma State came after a 14-point, fourth-quarter comeback. The win over Baylor came thanks to a fire-drill field goal as time expired. In the first game against K-State, TCU fell behind 28–10 in the second quarter. But a win is a win, and the resilience the Frogs showed to win those games is impressive.
TCU’s offense is among the best in the nation, averaging 40.3 points per game (fifth-best in the nation). The key players are quarterback Max Duggan (who finished second in Heisman voting), running back Kendre Miller (19th nationally with 1,342 rushing yards) and receiver Quentin Johnston, a rising NFL draft prospect.
Michigan’s physical defense has been the biggest factor in its success this year. The Wolverines are ranked fifth nationally in points allowed per game (13.4) and third in yards allowed per game (277.1). The bad news for TCU is that Michigan’s offense is elite, too, averaging 40.1 points per game (sixth-best). Even without injured running back Blake Corum, the Wolverines have what it takes to light up the scoreboard. Still, as Richard Johnson writes, it will be interesting to see how Michigan’s offense deals with TCU’s 3-3-5 base defense, which will be an unfamiliar look to a Big Ten team.
No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Ohio State (Peach Bowl, 8 p.m. ET on ESPN)
Like TCU from the oft-overlooked Big 12, Ohio State comes into the Playoff with a lot to prove. The Buckeyes got smashed by Michigan in their annual rivalry game, 45–23. Now they find themselves in the unusual position of being an underdog. As Pat Forde points out, since 2014, OSU has been favored in 98 of its last 104 games. The only exceptions have come in the Playoff. Consecutive blowout losses to Michigan (after last year’s 42–27 defeat in Ann Arbor) have Ohio State fans questioning their team’s position among college football’s undisputed elite. A win (or at least a strong showing) against Georgia would quell those fears, but the Bulldogs are every bit as formidable as Michigan.
Georgia’s defense ranks second nationally with a paltry 12.8 points allowed per game. That’s outrageous against an SEC schedule. And the defense isn’t just stingy—it’s brutally physical, which proved to be a problem for Ohio State against Michigan. Never before has a team won consecutive College Football Playoffs, but it wouldn’t be a shock if Georgia, which boasts dominant wins over three of the best teams in the country in Oregon, Tennessee and LSU, managed to pull it off. A win over Ohio State would put the Bulldogs on the precipice of history.
The best of Sports Illustrated:
- In today’s Daily Cover story, members of SI’s staff offer their bold sports predictions for 2023.
- Jonathan Wilson pays tribute to Pelé, who died yesterday at 82, writing that he transcended soccer but still deserves to be remembered for his brilliance on the field.
- Andrew Gastelum compiled a list of SI’s best coverage of Pelé, dating back to 1958.
- After Gervonta Davis’s arrest, Chris Mannix writes that it’s time for boxing to take a stand against domestic violence.
- Kevin Sweeney has a list of five midseason candidates for college basketball’s Men’s Player of the Year.
- Here are the odds, matchups and spreads for SI Sportsbook’s Perfect 10 contest in Week 17. Super Bowl ticket prices for the Panthers jumped a whopping 2900% following Carolina’s Week 16 win over the Lions.
The top five…
… best games in College Football Playoff history, according to Pat Forde:
5. 2014 Sugar Bowl semifinal: Ohio State 42, Alabama 35
4. 2015 title game: Alabama 45, Clemson 40
3. 2017 Rose Bowl semifinal: Georgia 54, Oklahoma 48
2. 2016 title game: Clemson 35, Alabama 31
1. 2017 title game: Alabama 26, Georgia 23
SIQ
The global soccer icon Pelé, who died yesterday at age 82, thrived on the game’s biggest stage, winning three World Cups with Brazil. How old was he when he scored his first international goal?
- 15
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Yesterday’s SIQ: Coming into the 2022 college football season, which Power 5 program held the longest active bowl win drought?
Answer: Kansas. Yes, as you read about yesterday, the Jayhawks came oh so close to securing their first bowl win since Dec. 31, 2008, as they fell 55–53 to Arkansas in a triple-overtime thriller.
The Jayhawks’ last bowl appearance was the Insight Bowl on New Year’s Eve of 2008, in which they doubled-up Minnesota 42–21. Since then, Kansas has not only failed to win a bowl game, but they hadn’t even appeared in one until this week’s loss in the Liberty Bowl. —Josh Rosenblat
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