The Ravens' playoff loss is a Rorschach test on Lamar Jackson and quarterback value
The Baltimore Ravens lost their 2023 NFL Playoff opener in a nail-biter on the road against the Cincinnati Bengals. That’s fine; this was probably never going to be a Super Bowl season for a flawed team.
But Sunday night’s defeat doesn’t just end the team’s season. It will extend into 2023 — and what the Ravens do at quarterback next fall and beyond.
Lamar Jackson will be a free agent this spring. He didn’t play Sunday, which was expected; he’s been out since Week 13 due to a leg injury. He also didn’t even make the trip to Ohio which, while explainable, still seems unusual. The leader of this team’s offense wasn’t even on the sideline? That certainly feels like a message about the team’s future at quarterback.
Whatever happened on the sideline obviously paled in comparison to what happened on the field. Tyler Huntley, playing alongside a depleted corps of targets such that Andy Isabella and James Proche had to be subbed onto the field in a desperation fourth quarter scoring drive, completed 17 of 29 passes for 226 yards and two touchdowns. He added 56 yards on the ground and 4.6 points of expected value as a passer.
He also threw an interception and clumsily led to at least a 10-point fourth quarter swing by attempting to reach the ball over the goal line from nearly two yards out, leading to one of the easiest fumbles Logan Wilson has ever forced and a 98-yard Sam Hubbard touchdown.
NO WORDS.#BALatCIN | NBC pic.twitter.com/pAFTy1yqpS
— Cincinnati Bengals (@Bengals) January 16, 2023
There are two lenses through which this loss can be viewed for the Ravens as they assess the future of their quarterback position. The first is that Lamar Jackson wouldn’t have made that mistake and likely would have won this game — much like he did when he faced the Bengals back in Week 5. This is the view tailback JK Dobbins took after the game and, in honesty, the one on which most unbiased observers would land.
J.K. Dobbins said he’s tired of not getting the ball, tired of being held back. Said Huntley should have never been in that position on sneak. And then he added, “If we would’ve had Lamar, we would’ve won, too.”
— Jeff Zrebiec (@jeffzrebiec) January 16, 2023
The other is that Baltimore was arguably one play away from beating a favored Cincinnati team on the road with an undrafted free agent quarterback one day after the final pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, Brock Purdy, shredded the Seahawks into tiny little pieces.
The way the Ravens view this game will inform the way they approach Jackson’s free agency this spring. After balking at the idea of giving the 2019 NFL MVP a fully guaranteed contract, it’s possible they lean toward the latter and make no commitment beyond franchise tagging Jackson, kicking the tires on trade offers along the way.
But Huntley, despite keeping this team in the game, showed the stark difference between a starter and a backup. His fumble wouldn’t even have been an option had he been able to deliver an on-target strike to Patrick Ricard two plays earlier.
the Bengals don't get that 99-yard fumble return without Cam Sample bringing just enough pressure here to prevent a Patrick Ricard receiving TD pic.twitter.com/TkitGDckmY
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) January 16, 2023
Huntley, in nine games as a starter, is 3-6 and has a passer rating roughly 20 points below Jackson’s career mark. Even a modest upgrade is going to leave the Ravens wallowing in mediocrity for years to come.
But at the same time … Jackson hadn’t exactly lifted this team to incredible heights the last four seasons. While he’s 39-15 in the regular season since ascending to full time starter, his teams have never advanced beyond the Divisional Round of the playoffs. If the Baltimore defense ad blocking is good enough to keep Huntley afloat for 60 minutes on the road, it stands to reason a similar outcome can be achieved at a fraction of the price with a passer not quite on Jackson’s level but with a higher pedigree than Huntley’s.
The Ravens have an estimated $24 million in salary cap space this offseason, per Over The Cap. They can afford to extend Jackson and push his guarantees into future years. More importantly, they can add badly needed help at wideout to make the receiving game more than just the Mark Andrews show.
They could also turn away from their starting quarterback and go down another path. It wouldn’t be Tyler Huntley, but it wouldn’t be Lamar Jackson either. It’s not a move that makes a ton of sense at face value — severing ties with a 26-year-old former MVP? — but one the Ravens may be willing to make if they’re serious about preserving their salary cap flexibility (and, perhaps, moving away from a running quarterback in favor of a more traditional pocket passer).
Was Sunday night’s loss a testament to the need for Jackson’s return as a stable playmaking quarterback in Baltimore? Or is the team’s ability to threaten the reigning AFC champs, if you squint hard enough and really, truly don’t want to meet Jackson’s price, evidence the Ravens’ defense and offensive line can prop up anyone behind center for extended stretches, even with the worst receiving corps in the NFL, and put them in position to win a playoff game on the road?
How Baltimore’s management sees it will define their contract negotiations with Jackson this spring. We don’t know where the Ravens will land yet. If you’re a team in need of a dual-threat quarterback capable of making big throws downfield, you’re hoping they settle on the second option.