Josh Allen has to cut down on the turnovers immediately or the Bills are in serious trouble

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Josh Allen is the most chaotic football player alive. On any given play, he gives you a multitude of potential options leading to astonishing results.

One possession might see Allen launch a 60-yard laser to his receiver, in stride, from the opposite hash. Because he’s a Human Terminator wearing the body suit of a 26-year-old superstar quarterback, and he can do such things. Later, he could try throwing the ball through a linebacker — ignoring they have hands used to catch interceptions — patently because he trusts his rocket arm so much. That cannon occasionally makes it seem as if Allen believes he can disregard the basic laws of physics and object permanence. If he’s feeling feisty, he might call his own number and humble a defender by trucking them … when he doesn’t have to. He is a 230-plus-pound hulk of a man, but he also plays the one position in football that probably shouldn’t be subjecting itself to punishment so willingly.

The wild notion about the possibilities Allen presents is that all of these decisions can happen on one possession for him, let alone a full-60 minute game. He embodies a choose-your-own-adventure QB, where turning to the right or wrong page can mean certain glory or doom.

As the Buffalo Bills get set to take on the Cincinnati Bengals in the Divisional Round this Sunday, in what could be their final home game of the 2022 season — regardless of a win or loss — the Bills need their talisman to start making better choices.

It means Allen needs to stop being so reckless with the football in his hands as Buffalo’s offensive creator. Take Allen’s performance last Sunday against the Miami Dolphins in the AFC Wild Card Game.

While the Bills’ first true franchise quarterback since Jim Kelly enjoyed the production of an elite quarterback — 352 yards, three TD passes, an astonishing nine yards per pass attempt — he also gave the ball away like a sloppy backup out of his wits. Let’s remember that the Dolphins were starting third-stringer Skylar Thompson as the opposing QB, a man who, while in the NFL, should have no business overcoming a Super Bowl favorite in its home stadium in the first round of the playoffs. Allen’s unfortunate propensity for overaggressiveness, for being too careless with the ball in his hands, led Miami to convert his three turnovers (two interceptions, one fumble) into 17 points. In what ended up being a nail-biter 34-31 outcome, it wouldn’t be a stretch to say it was Allen who cracked the door open for one of the biggest upsets in NFL playoff history.

Just glance at this dot map of Allen’s throws from last Sunday, courtesy of NFL Next Gen Stats. This is not a man concerned with efficiency … or any perceived risk. He is going to turn to page 84, even if there’s assuredly a dangerous fire-breathing dragon waiting for him, whether anyone likes it or not:

None of this is new for Allen, of course. He’s always been a boom-or-bust playmaker. The man has 60 regular-season picks in his five-year career and was tied for first in the NFL with the beyond-washed-up Matt Ryan for the most giveaways (18) of any player this past season. This is who he is, and that’s acceptable if he’ll be at the helm of a perennial AFC contender.

The issue is that the recently dominant Bills were stronger to withstand Allen’s TOs, thinking the laws of mere mortals don’t apply to him. The 2022 Bills — while an efficiency darling — need Allen to make more plays than ever and to improvise magic out of thin air, especially with Buffalo not having a legitimate WR2 opposite Stefon Diggs. The Bills have usually asked Allen to put the team on his back, and having him do it more often has led the arguably co-face of the sport to revert to a damaging brand of “hero ball.”

This isn’t necessarily a novel thought that a quarterback couldn’t turn the ball over to succeed. But it appears to be a particular drawback of Allen’s main game. It is no coincidence that in the Bills’ three losses this season (to the Dolphins, Jets, and Vikings), Allen had six giveaways, sometimes at the worst possible, game-deciding moment.

I guess that shouldn’t be a shock for someone with the third-highest turnover-worthy play rate (4.2 percent) in 2022, per Pro Football Focus:

Per a story from Spectrum News’ Andy Young, Allen curiously doesn’t seem to think he has a turnover “problem.” If anything, he insists his capacity to push the defense at all costs makes him and the Bills so explosive.

“You can’t just try to eliminate every single turnover and play scared,” Allen said. “You still have to be the way that we play. We’re aggressive. We want to score touchdowns. That’s the gist of it to be honest.”

Hmm, I don’t know about the faulty logic there, my friend.

Allen is one of the more gifted modern players the sport’s ever seen. If anything, he should take fewer risks and be less careless with the ball to score points because he’s almost always the best player on the field. Your margin for error should be smaller, not larger, the more talented you are. Think about how special you must be to have the fourth-best EPA/CPOE composite with 18 turnovers dragging you down. Now imagine if Allen cleaned up that aspect of his game. Why it’s almost as if I’m listening to a stubborn player rationalizing his back-breaking mistakes rather than improving his fatal flaw. The people who call Allen a young Brett Favre on a football field have never been more correct.

Does Allen seriously believe the Bengals, the defending AFC champions, won’t capitalize on any of his brain farts the same way the Dolphins did? Lest we forget that the rival Kansas City Chiefs and the Bills’ “Grim Reaper” in Patrick Mahomes will take any sliver of an opportunity you give them should Buffalo and Kansas City meet in the AFC title game. I’d go as far as to say both contenders will/would make Allen rue the day he ever slammed his pedal on his metal too much.

If Allen wants a Super Bowl ring added to his resume, I’d advise dialing back this thought process, and soon.

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