Why De'Aaron Fox should now be the favorite to win the Clutch Player of the Year award
Based on what we’ve seen so far, the inaugural winner of the NBA’s Jerry West Clutch Player of the Year should be Kings guard De’Aaron Fox.
After the award was first introduced last month, we ranked the ten most deserving candidates. Unfortunately, however, we omitted Fox from that list. That was a mistake, and as the Kings climb toward the top of the standings in the Western Conference, he continues to prove why.
Early favorites include Luka Doncic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Damian Lillard, and DeMar DeRozan. Fox, however, should continue to see his odds improve.
Even though DeRozan leads the NBA in total clutch scoring, Fox still has a far better case to win the award. The Bulls have a losing record (8-13) during games DeRozan has played that have gone into the clutch while the Kings are winning (12-9) with Fox.
Fox is outscoring DeRozan (and everyone else in the league except for Joel Embiid) in points per 100 possessions in high-leverage or very-high-leverage situations, per PBPStats. He is also shooting a perfect 14-for-14 at the rim on these possessions.
The advanced numbers present an interesting argument, too. Inpredictable’s Mike Beuoy introduced Win Probability Added (WPA), which is one of the more interesting advanced stats used in the NBA. This is how he describes his methodology:
“My official definition only includes the impact of the following: made/missed field goals, drawing fouls, made/missed free throws, and turnovers. This roughly aligns with how we define “usage” in the NBA, and I chose this approach because it felt “symmetric” in that a player could get WPA “credits” (making field goals, drawing fouls, etc.) as well as “debits” (missing field goals, turnovers, etc.).”
Based on this metric, Fox currently ranks second-best behind only DeRozan in clWPA (Clutch Win Probability Added) so far this season.
But his tracker allows you to see isolated scores in the clutch for clutch shooting, drawn fouls, free throw shooting, turnovers, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks.
Fox leads all players in total Clutch Win Probably Added due to field goal shooting:
Sacramento has entrusted him with 28.0 percent of their clutch field goal attempts, which is the third-highest in the league behind only LeBron James and Jaylen Brown.
When the game is on the line, the ball is going to Fox because he is one of the rare players who is more efficient when the game is on the line.
His effective field goal percentage in clutch minutes (63.3 percent) is much higher than his typical minutes (53.8 percent) and the league average in clutch minutes (45.9 percent) as well. His free-throw percentage in clutch minutes (86.7 percent) is also higher than it is during his typical minutes (73.7 percent) this season.
DE'AARON FOX CALLED GAME pic.twitter.com/vssGKeWQY2
— Kings on NBCS (@NBCSKings) November 5, 2022
He already had a signature moment on Nov. 5, connecting on the game-winning buzzer-beater taken from the farthest distance in 2022-23. It was a 31-foot, unassisted 3-pointer to seal the deal against the Magic.
Overall, Fox has made 11 shots to take the lead in the final two minutes of the game, which is tied for the second-most of any player in the NBA. He has made 7 shots to either tie or take the lead in the final thirty seconds, which is also tied for the second-most in the league.
Fox is having a phenomenal season and while there is still plenty of season left to be played, he deserves some serious acknowledgements for all of his accomplishments thus far.