Odds for When LeBron James Will Set NBA Scoring Record

Odds and analysis for when LeBron James will become the NBA’s all-time leading scorer by passing Kareem Abdul-Jabbar.

LeBron James is zeroing in on an NBA record that has stood since before he was born.

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar has been the league’s all-time scoring leader since 1984 when he passed Wilt Chamberlain. The Lakers’ legend kept building on that lead until his retirement in 1989, accumulating 38,387 points across his 21-year career.

Now, James is just a few games away from passing Abdul-Jabbar’s career mark in his 20th season. He joined Abdul-Jabbar as the only other member of the 38,000-point club Jan. 16 and as of Jan. 26, James is 158 points away from 38,388.

As this record-breaking day nears, bettings odds are available for those interested in wagering on when James will move into first place in all-time scoring.

The Lakers begin a five-game road trip Saturday in Boston and will return home the following week, where James could set the record in front of the crowd in Los Angeles, if he hasn’t done so already. Before getting into the game-by-game odds and what scoring pace James would have to be on to accomplish this feat in each contest, let’s review how the four-time MVP is getting along in his age 38 season.

James’s 29.9 points per game scoring average is sixth-best in the NBA and, if that mark holds, it would be his fourth-highest scoring season in his career. His four highest-scoring games this season have all come in the last month: 46 points Dec. 30 against the Hawks, 43 points Jan. 2 against the Hornets, 48 points Jan. 16 against the Rockets and 46 points Jan. 24 against the Clippers.

Perhaps equally as important for the purpose of this exercise as his scoring, James has played in 39 of 49 games this year and last missed a game Jan. 9 due to an ankle injury. Now, let’s take a look ahead to see when history will happen.

Jan. 31: at New York Knicks (+7500)

As poetic as it would be for James to set the record at Madison Square Garden—which he has called his “favorite playground” and also the venue where Stephen Curry set the all-time three-point record last season—it’s not going to happen here. James would need to score 52.7 points per game against the Celtics, Nets and Knicks to make this happen. He hasn’t scored 50 in a single game yet this year, let alone three in a row.

Feb. 2: at Indiana Pacers (+700)

It’s much more plausible James hits the record against Indiana than New York, though it’s still unlikely. He’d have to average a hair under 40 points per game for the next four games to do so late in this game. There is some history with the Pacers that dates back to his time with the Heat, but this is a tall task.

Feb. 4: at New Orleans Pelicans (+120)

At James’s current scoring pace, it appears that history might be made in New Orleans and this game has the lowest odds for it to happen. He’s averaging 33.6 points per game in January, so he would need to hover around that mark for the next four games and then put up another 30-plus point outing on the road to hit the record. James scored 20 points against the Pelicans in November.

Feb. 7: vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (+195)

It seems there’s some value in betting on James passing Abdul-Jabbar back in Los Angeles. His scoring average would have to dip to right around 27 for him to set the record in this game, but it’s entirely possible he averages right around 30 points for his next five games and is just a few points shy following the Pelicans game. Wherever and whenever he does it, there will be an ovation, but it feels right for it to happen at home. Plus, James has history with the Thunder, the team he beat in the 2012 Finals for his first championship.

Feb. 9: vs. Milwaukee Bucks (+550)

James’s scoring would have to drop off quite a bit for it to take him seven games to score 158 points, an average of just less than 23 per game. It’s possible he misses one or more of those contests, which would push things back a game or two, but that’s simply a guessing game. Similarly to the case with the Thunder, if he averaged about 26 points per game for the previous six games he could set the record early against Milwaukee, where Abdul-Jabbar began his career. (This game is also nationally televised and the previous three are not, for what it’s worth.)

Feb. 11: at Golden State Warriors (+1900)

If it takes James eight games to hit this record, either a precipitous scoring drop or missed games are to blame. Missed games are the more likely of the two—he’s only scored less than 20 points twice this season, and that’s about what he would have to average going forward for him to set the record against Golden State. James is, of course, intimately familiar with the Warriors, having gone up against them in four straight NBA Finals when he was with the Cavaliers.

Other Games:

Feb. 13: at Portland Trail Blazers (+7000)
Feb. 15: vs. New Orleans Pelicans (+7500)
Feb. 23: vs. Golden State Warriors (+7500)
Feb. 26: at Dallas Mavericks (+7500)
Feb. 28: at Memphis Grizzlies (+7500)
Mar. 1: at Oklahoma City Thunder (+7500)
Any Other Game (+7500)

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