Dave Hyde: Why Dolphins shouldn’t give Tua fifth-year option

General Manager Chris Grier said the day after the season that Tua Tagovailoa will be the Miami Dolphins’ starting quarterback come September. Coach Mike McDaniel repeated it. Tagovailoa’s family has said it.

So have I.

So should you.

The public conversation keeps going on anyway over what the Dolphins may do. There’s a bigger question by now over giving Tagovailoa the expensive fifth-year contract option than if he’ll be starting.

The Dolphins surveyed the landscape and decided Tagovailoa was their best option. Or at least you assume they surveyed the landscape considering the concussion questions around Tagovailoa.

The dream scenario for chasing Lamar Jackson would be Baltimore signing him to the franchise tag and allowing a team to take him for two first-round picks. That might happen, too. The Pompano Beach native might want to play at home, too.

Here’s the issue: The Dolphins don’t have even one first-round pick in the 2023 draft to make a trade. They had two first-round picks, but team owner Steve Ross was penalized one first-round pick for tampering with Tom Brady and Sean Payton. The other one was traded for edge rusher Bradley Chubb.

What if the Dolphins packaged a deal with Tagovailoa, you ask? It’s one thing for the Dolphins to cross their fingers on Tagovailoa’s game and health. It’s another for a team like Baltimore to trade a league MVP for that hope.

Another option is to chase Aaron Rodgers. This idea would have been bigger two years ago. Wait, it was bigger then. But Rodgers didn’t leave Green Bay that time, he didn’t leave last year when the talk grew louder and the latest tea leaves suggest he won’t leave Green Bay now.

Rodgers is 40 next season. He’s making $59 million next season. You could get past either of those numbers if you want. The contract, for instance, can be flattened with a big bonus to about $15 million over four years.

But the Dolphins saw here what everyone did: A goofy Hall of Fame quarterback nearing the end who might just be playing reindeer games. The Dolphins chased Brady and Deshaun Watson and struck out. They didn’t even consider Rodgers.

The real option the Dolphins are passing on is Derek Carr. They’re not alone. The team that knows him best, Las Vegas, didn’t want to pay him $40 million and released him. He met with the New York Jets this week, and their public pitch was Carr will be a first-ballot Hall of Famer if he wins in New York.

It’s a good pitch. But a realistic one? Carr hasn’t won anything notable, though his 33 comeback wins since 2014 lead the league. He’s never played fewer than 15 games in his nine years so you wouldn’t enter a season crossing fingers over your quarterback’s health. He could look great in McDaniel’s offense throwing to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

There’s no way the Dolphins sign Carr to a big-money deal without releasing Tagovailoa. What kind of mixed signals would that give? Beyond that, why would Carr come here to compete for a job with a half-dozen teams after him? The Jets’ visit was his agent ringing the dinner bell. Come and get him.

Bottom-line: This is Tagovailoa’s job, just as Grier and McDaniel said at the start of the offseason. That means the most important signing of the offseason will be who the team signs to be his backup. The enigma of Tagovailoa’s health compounds the importance. Baker Mayfield, anyone? Gardner Minshew? Skylar Thompson?

There’s this, too: Do the Dolphins sign Tagovailoa to a fifth-year option on his rookie contract? They have until May to decide. It would guarantee about $23 million for his 2024 season.

The business risk is if he doesn’t shake the concussion issues and you’re on the hook for a quarterback in serious career trouble. The flip-side is you don’t sign him to the option, he has a great year and you have to put a franchise tag on him that’s about $34 million while negotiating a long-term contract.

Grier and McDaniel have entrusted next season and their careers to Tagovailoa. They need to protect the franchise by not giving him the option. They should tell him they hope to give him a big contract after this season. But all in due time and proper steps.

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