Numbers That Could Define the UConn-San Diego State Final
UConn and San Diego State will play for the men’s NCAA national championship Monday night in Houston. The Huskies’ dominant run through the Big Dance has set them just one win away from the program’s fifth championship, while San Diego State needed a buzzer-beater against FAU to reach its first title game.
But how will the matchup be decided? Here is a look at five numbers that will define this matchup to preview the showdown.
+103
UConn’s point differential in the NCAA tournament so far. San Diego State’s differential is just 38 through five games, and that number is inflated somewhat by a 23-point win against overmatched Furman in the second round. The Huskies have been a cut above the rest in tournament play, a major reason they’re considered heavy favorites to cut down the nets.
This run has been reminiscent of what the Huskies accomplished in the nonconference, where, at one point, they won seven consecutive games by double digits against high-major foes, including a 15-point win over future No. 1 overall seed Alabama at the Phil Knight Invitational. Struggles in January followed, but the potential for a run like this has always been there with this UConn group. And with the Huskies shooting over 40% from deep in the tournament, they’ve looked unbeatable at times.
4
The number of different leading scorers San Diego State has had in the tournament. Matt Bradley, the team’s leading scorer this season, led the way against Charleston in the first round and FAU in the semifinals, while Micah Parrish, Lamont Butler and Darrion Trammell have each topped the team once in the Big Dance. San Diego State’s offense has at times been touch-and-go in the tournament, but the Aztecs have generated enough offense to ride its defense to close wins.
UConn presents a different challenge than what even Alabama gave San Diego State in the Sweet 16. The Aztecs may be able to slow down UConn, but the Huskies simply have too many weapons to be stopped. San Diego State's steady contributors will all have to have strong games to keep up. Bradley had an excellent outing Saturday against FAU, drilling threes early en route to a 21-point outburst. He needs to lead the charge, but won’t be able to do it alone.
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19
UConn’s Jordan Hawkins has made 19 threes in the NCAA tournament thus far. It would take a massive explosion to match Carsen Edwards’s record for most made threes in a single tournament (28, with Purdue in 2019), but Hawkins’s shooting has been a huge reason for the Huskies’ dominance and it’s essential San Diego State slow him down to have a chance.
The good news for San Diego State is it has given up just 25 threes all tournament at a 22% clip, a remarkable number even in the context of poor three-point shooting tournament-wide this March. The three-point shot (led by Hawkins, the team’s best shooter) is the lynchpin of UConn’s Big Dance run: the Huskies are 18–1 when shooting better than 36% from three-point range and 15–2 when making 10-plus threes. It’s even harder to see San Diego State winning this game if it lets UConn get going from deep range.
68.2%
Adama Sanogo’s field-goal percentage in the tournament, even better than his season average of nearly 61%. The junior big man has been an overwhelming rim presence for the Huskies, starting with his sparkling 28-point, 13-rebound display against Iona in the first round and continuing to Saturday, when he poured in 21 points on 9–of–11 shooting against Miami.
Sanogo’s growth as a three-point shooter after only attempting one three in his first two seasons in Storrs has been a boon to the Huskies offense. He drilled two triples in the first four minutes of Saturday’s win after Miami heavily sagged off him, then attacked a closeout and finished acrobatically in traffic in the second half. Add that newfound perimeter skill to his bruising low-post game, and you get one of the hardest-to-guard players in the country. Aztecs fifth-year center Nathan Mensah is one of the best defensive players in college basketball, but he will have his hands full in this matchup.
10–1
San Diego State’s record in games decided by five points or less or in overtime this season. The Aztecs have their warts, but their ability to win close games has been a strength all season and on full display during this run, with consecutive one-point wins to advance to the title game.
UConn hasn’t played many close games and hasn’t been good in those settings this season. The Huskies are 0–4 on the year in games decided by five points or less, including a loss in the Big East tournament against Marquette. And because UConn has yet to be seriously challenged in the tournament, it’s hard to know how it would handle late-game pressure from the Aztecs.