Bettors Can Take Advantage of These Early MLB Trends

The first weekend of the 2023 MLB season is in the books, and the rule changes the league made have already shown up in the stat sheets.

We won four of our seven bets for opening weekend at SISB. With plus money returns for all our wagers, those who tailed our picks and bet their bankroll evenly across all seven bets should have seen a 135% payout -- a 35% profit margin.

There are already some trends from the first 49 games of the season as compared to the first 49 games of the 2022 season. I will be leaning on these trends to make our upcoming bets at SISB.

It’s a small sample size, but bettors should be aware of these six trends and capitalize when they can at SI Sportsbook.

1. There were 40 pitch clock violations.
That’s fewer than one violation per game. There shouldn’t be too much concern about a hitter or pitcher making unforced errors because of the pitch clock.

Also, the pitch clock seems to have had the desired effect. Games this weekend averaged 2:38 as compared to games in 2023 which averaged 3:09. Depending on how you look at it, that’s a half hour less time to make your in-game wagers (bummer) or a half hour less time to sweat out your pre-game bets (awesome).

2. Batting average was up.
New limitations on the shift have done what was intended. More hard hits dropped in for singles this weekend, and there was more traffic on the basepaths. Last year, the league batting average was .230 through the first 49 games. This year, it is .245. There could be value on hit props for those players we predicted would benefit from no shift – players such as Kyle Tucker (.268), Matt Olson (.364), Corey Seager (.364) and even Joey Gallo (.300). Yes, it’s a small sample size, but Joey Gallo is hitting .300! Be aware.

3. Stolen bases were WAY up.
I cannot emphasize this enough. This year, players are going to run. With new limits on pitcher disengagement and bigger bases, this was bound to happen, but did we expect this big of a jump (pun intended)? Through the first 49 games of 2022, 29 bases were stolen out of 49 attempts for a 67.4% success rate. This year, 70 bases were stolen out of 84 attempts for an 83.3% success rate. That’s bonkers. So, yes, teams are going to run more -- at least in the short term until some analytics team figures out a way to stop it. If you get good odds for a stolen base prop, take it – especially if a team is facing Noah Syndergaard or Robbie Ray.

4. Home Runs were exactly the same.
That’s right -- exactly. There were 100 home runs in the first 49 games of 2022, and there were 100 homers in the first 49 games of 2023. The rule changes aren’t affecting the long ball at all so far. However you bet HR props in the past, no need to change. However, total bases props become even more interesting. Players that have power but previously didn’t get many singles, could easily crush a total base prop (1.5) without having to crush a home run. Two singles or one double would do the trick, and these props are usually offered at plus money. Again, consider betting these props for the hitters that were shifted on most in 2022, as well as players who tend to log extra-base hits (Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman). For reference, here is a link to my article with players I predicted will benefit from the shift.

5. ERA and WHIP were up.
Naturally, with batting averages going up and more traffic on the bases, ERA will go up, too. Don’t panic if your ace blew up this weekend; so did a lot of other aces. And what’s really interesting is the next stat….

6. Strikeouts were UP.
That’s right. While ERA was up, so were strikeouts. In 2022, the K rate for opening weekend was 23.1%. This season it was 23.4%. Even if only slightly up, it’s enough to still feel safe to play those K props. Many of the usual suspects had their strikeout stuff: Gerrit Cole, Shohei Ohtani, Dylan Cease. And there were some new kids showing off too: Nick Lodolo, Hunter Greene and Kodai Senga. Also, one thing that hasn’t changed: The Pirates, Tigers and Giants are teams that are picking up right where they left off -- striking out a lot more than league average. Be sure to consider the over on K props for pitchers facing these clubs.