Why bettors shouldn't overreact to the Rays' historic start and improving title odds
The Tampa Bay Rays are two wins away from matching the best start to a season in Major League Baseball history.
They moved to 11-0 Tuesday with a win over the Boston Red Sox, the best start to a season since the 1987 Brewers won 13 straight. The Rays have a blistering +63 scoring margin this year, as all but one of their wins have come by at least four runs. They’re outscoring opponents 30-2 in the last four games.
Adding to their historic start, the Rays have 29 home runs on the season, matching the MLB record through 11 games set by the Cardinals in 2000. Their title odds have jumped from +2500 at the start of Spring Training to +1200 Wednesday morning — seventh best at BetMGM.
However, there’s one big reason bettors shouldn’t overreact and start dumping large amounts of money on those odds: the Rays have played by far the easiest schedule in the majors this season.
Before their current series against Boston, Tampa opened the season with series against Detroit, Washington and Oakland — all teams with bottom-five title odds entering the season. The latter two were tied for last. Those teams currently have a combined 8-25 record.
Boston’s title odds rank in the bottom half of the league too.
The Tampa Bay Rays have now won 11 straight games to start the 2023 season.
Only two teams have started a MLB season with more wins:
Atlanta Braves (13-0) – 1982
Milwaukee Brewers (13-0) – 1987 pic.twitter.com/BcbebsJhNZ— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) April 12, 2023
The last team to start a season at least 9-0 — the 2003 Royals — finished just 83-79. The ’87 Brewers eventually followed their 13-game winning streak with a 12-game losing streak in May.
So while the Rays may very well be a playoff team, it’s too soon to make any bold proclamations about just how good they truly are. We may not find that out until later in the month. Tampa doesn’t play a team with better odds than itself until a series against the Houston Astros (+750) on April 24.