Matt Chapman tips: There will be a MAJOR shock at Royal Ascot if this banker doesn’t win on Friday
DERMOT WELD has done just about everything worth doing in racing — but, boy, it’s a while since he last banged in a Group 1 Coronation Stakes.
That should all change this afternoon, as Classic heroine TAHIYRA (4.20) tries to do for the master of Rosewell what Sutton Place did for the legend back in 1978.
A lot has happened in this world of ours in those 45 years!
Tahirya is odds-on to win following the defection of Mawj, the horse who defeated Weld’s filly in the 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket.
Tahiyra got her deserves in the Irish equivalent, and really should be too strong for a modest line-up here — although I expect Meditate to put up at least a fight.
I got on the Aidan O’Brien filly a few weeks ago each-way at 8-1 with three places but was hoping Mawj was in the line-up to set strong fractions.
The race is very different to what many had expected and it would be a major shock if Chris Hayes and Tahiyra failed to give Weld another day in the sun.
The fourth day of Royal Ascot gets under way with the Group 3 Albany Stakes for juvenile fillies over six furlongs. So tricky.
PERSIAN DREAMER (2.30) looked special on debut at Newmarket but then fluffed her lines at York when missing the start and struggling to get on terms with the leaders.
I’ll forgive that performance and hope the AMO Racing filly can thrust home for Kevin Stott and Dominic Ffrench Davis.
Next up is Group 1 company for the Commonwealth Cup for three-year-olds over six furlongs.
I fully expect a blasting performance from LITTLE BIG BEAR (2.30) who blew out in the 2,000 Guineas like stable companion Auguste Rodin but other than that has looked an absolute machine.
Ryan Moore is back on top the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes winner for Aidan O’Brien and the son of No Nay Never looked a machine landing the Sandy Lane when ridden by Frankie Dettori at Haydock.
Frankie got off him that day and joked he hoped Ryan would let him ride Little Big Bear at this meeting.
Clearly he was never going to do that but Frankie is on an interesting filly in Lezoo for his good pal Ralph Beckett and I expect her to make the frame.
Handicap company next for the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes over a mile and a half.
AJERO (3.40) might be desperate for fast ground and hasn’t had it since finishing second in this race in 2022 and going on to score at Goodwood.
A handicap mark of 96 is high enough, but his draw is good and he will be dropped out by Jim Crowley and hopefully will rattle home for jumps trainer Kim Bailey.
After the Coronation we have the Sandringham Fillies’ Handicap for three-year-olds over a mile.
UNLESS (5.00) is around the 20-1 mark for Aidan O’Brien and Wayne Lordan but could well have an each-way squeak.
I like the fact their daughter of Justify has run in huge fields on her last two starts and she travelled strongly when winning at Naas last time.
Out of a Galileo mare she should stay well — only big negative is Ryan Moore has ditched her in favour of Jackie Oh who is a fraction of the price of my tip.
However it would not be the first time Ryan picked the wrong one at Ballydoyle. Unless looks a good bet for each-way players.
Next up we have a Group 2, the King Edward VII Stakes for colts and geldings over a mile and a half.
Most of these would want soft ground and it’s impossible to oppose Derby runner-up KING OF STEEL (5.35) who really should be even longer odds-on than he is if you take his Epsom effort at face value behind Auguste Rodin.
Lightly raced and open to massive improvement for Stott and Roger Varian he will surely power home here.
Finally it’s the Palace of Holyrood House Stakes over five furlongs.
I’ll chance HARRY BROWN (6.10) each-way for Hayley Turner and Dave Simcock.
I like this horse who has lots of six furlong form and I don’t think a small field at Goodwood last time suited him.
This is a horse who can take a keen hold and he might just finish off well if there’s a really strong pace.
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