The NFL overreaction index heading into Week 2: Are the Cowboys that good, or the Giants that bad?

If the first week of the football season is any indication, an NFC Championship Game between the San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys will be this year’s real Super Bowl.

The New York Giants, fresh off a playoff appearance, will be in the running for the first overall pick. The Buffalo Bills will miss the playoffs. And Tua Tagovailoa’s going to throw for 8,000 yards.

There’s plenty to panic about each Sunday in the NFL, but there’s no overreaction quite like opening week overreaction. Downtrodden teams are given hope through wins over even weaker opponents. Pessimistic fans of juggernauts find ways to pick apart even dominant victories. Sports radio heaves and lurches to life like an engine refueled, trading on rants that will be outdated and proven wrong days later.

Let’s lean in to that. Welcome to the Overreaction Index, where each week I’ll break down five trends that has teams and fans deep in their emotions. Should we buy the Cowboys as a Super Bowl threat? Yes, even despite the ongoing specter of Mike McCarthy. Is it appropriate to worry about Josh Allen? Well, hell, we’re gonna talk about it.

Back at my old haunt at SB Nation, we put out a weekly panic index to gauge just how worried certain NFL teams and players should be. This isn’t an outright ripoff of that, but I’d be remiss to say it wasn’t inspired by it (and summarily ripped off by other outlets. I’d be madder had SB Nation not gutted its own staff in a still perplexing act of self immolation. Anyway!).

Here are the five things I’m overreacting to after Week 1 — and just how likely those overreactions are to be right.